Friday, November 19, 2010

The Meaning Of Value: Russell Westbrook Vs. Kevin Durant

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Durant Scores More On Average, But There Is
Nothing Average About Russell Westbrook
By: Jeremy Graham

Can you be the league MVP if you are not even the MVP of your own team? That's the question facing Kevin Durant, the chic pick at the beginning of the year to bringing home the hardware. Kobe's getting older, Lebron's taking his talents to South Beach, and Chris Paul's on a “lottery team.” It's KD team, and his time to win 10 straight MVPs.

With the playoff run and the international grind Durant is starting slow. I still don’t know if he would be the most valuable player to the Sonics, yes I am calling them the Sonics. (ED: FCP says "Damn Straight!" :) ) Right now, and maybe in the foreseeable future, Russell Westbrook is unquestionably the best, and most important player on his team.

This Play Defines The Sonics Success Against LA Last Year, Not Durant's

Double take expected; I almost can’t even believe what I am writing. How can I say that a combo guard who wasn’t supposed to even be a PG can be better than Kevin Durant? Simple! In the time they have played together Westbrook has progressed much more than Durant. Westbrook was never intended to be the full time point guard yet he wanted it so bad he told the franchise "I'm your guy" and took the bull by the horns. Westbrook has progressed so far that he is now arguably a top 5 PG in the league.

I know, top 5 is alright but you have to be top 3 to be elite. After Chris Paul and Deron Williams you can play musical chairs with Nash, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook so today's "arguably top 5" is really yesterday's elite. Durant may be a top two or three player at SF, depending on how you rate Carmelo, but SF does not have the depth of the PG position in the NBA. There are four different categories to rate players on, scoring, rebounding, passing and defense. Right now I think that Westbrook is outshining Durant in all four.


Scoring

We Feel You Seattle
This is like the Kobe vs Lebron debate for who is a better scorer. Talent or Production, what to choose? Durant is, of course, the more talented scorer from anywhere on the court. He resembles Vince Carter with the way he can stroke the 35 foot three when he wants to. Westbrook is a little more modest and is relegated to inside 20 feet. Despite this Durant€ is less efficient. He scores more than Westbrook, which looks great, till you dig a little deeper.

Durant is currently shooting 42% from the field and only 31% from the the arc. For a recently appointed “best offensive player in the game,” those numbers are lacking. Westbrook isn’t lighting it up either, shooting only 3% better at 45% but when you shoot as much as both players do it adds up. By getting his buckets closer to the basket Westbrook takes higher percentage shots for better efficiency. Some say Durant gets to the line and shoots so well the easy points compensate his poor shooting nights. Good point, except Westbrook is getting to the line just a touch less and is shooting just a tad lower. For now Westbrook is the best scorer on the Sonics. Will this last all year? Perhaps not, but it's the case so far in 2010 and could continue.


Rebounding

Even Blake Griffin Can't
Keep A Good Dunk Down
It also looks like Durant is the better rebounder on the surface. He does average more per game. But he plays a position where rebounding is part of the job, whereas at PG rebounds are a bonus. Westbrook doesn’t think along those lines. He is one of the best rebounding guards in the league.

Not just from the point but of all guards. Durant pulls down 6.6 RPG and Westbrook pulls down 5.5 out of a non-rebounding position. You have to look at the offensive glass as well. Westbrook averages almost 2 offensive rebounds a game, Durant doesn’t even average 1. Durant is phenomenal, but that reeks of low effort. A PG should not be cleaning the offensive glass better than your SF. It's not how basketball works. Is it a paradigm shift in the league towards a new uber athletic PG? Perhaps... Some day Durant is going to be pulling down 10 rebounds a game, he may even hit the offensive glass. Right now though, Westbrook has him beat by a country mile.
Passing

It's Okay Ramon Sessions,
No One Else Saw It Coming Either
It goes without saying that a team's PG the better passer when compared to a SF. For the sake of this I will focus ball control. For a jump shooter that puts the ball on the floor intermittently Durant frankly turns the ball over far too often. His TOs are as high as Westbrook without running the offense. Westbrook performs the main ball handling duties putting him in position to turn it over much more often.

Advanced stats appear to disprove this. Durant does have a higher usage rate and a lower turnover percentage. Does that mean that he holds onto the ball better? Nope, it sure doesn’t. Durant has a higher usage rate because he puts up more shots, not because he has the ball in his hands more. More shots should equal fewer turnovers. Next you might say, “Well Durant plays more minutes, of course his turnovers are higher.” Good point! Until you see they both average 3.5 TO per 36 minutes. In time Durant will protect the ball and drop more dimes. Presently, Westbrook is his superior.

Defence

PG's Get Higher Then Their
Centers For Blocks Now???
It does win championships as they say. Durant has turned himself into a very decent defender after a mostly lost rookie year. Westbrook has been a very good from day one.  I am not saying Westbrook is better because of history, I am saying he is better... because he is.

Durant's length/smarts put him in position to steal the ball 1.5 times, and block about a shot, per game. Not only that but he plays solid man and team D at a more important defensive position. Westbrook may play a less important defensive role than Durant but he plays his role better. With the influx of excellent to elite PGs it's becoming more important to have a good defender at the point.

Just ask the Heat. Westbrook is able to defend elite guards without much help and gets at least 2 take aways per game and tips many passes that don't make box scores. Durant may have a slight advantage in blocks, but steals nearly always result in a change of possession. Defense is hard to judge, especially statistically and when comparing different positions, but you have to give the edge to Westbrook. All without mentioning that Westbrook can guard both guard positions very well.

Come MVP voting Durant may very well pull ahead of Westbrook and be the best player for the Sonics. His numbers very well could sky rocket. He has all the talent to do so. A few questions should still arise at that time. Will Westbrook have the better numbers? Will it matter if he does, or will Durant win the MVP because he was supposed to be? And can you be the MVP if someone on your own team is outperforming you?

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Lebron James: The Easy Decision - Cookie Cutter Arguments For Cutting Corners

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By: The Pest

Lebron James Before "The Decision" Make Up Team Got At Him.
I know this has been done to death. Is there really a need for another article about The Decision? Maybe not, but when writers I respect like Bill Simmons say:
And as a basketball fan, it continues to be hard for me to accept that someone who had a chance to be the GOAT took the easy way out.
I start to think maybe I should contribute another.

Jordan, Barkley and Magic all famously chided him for going to Miami too. Which is odd for two players who did their winning with the second best player in the league (Pippen/Kareem) on their teams. Especially Barkley, who lost to Jordan's team after he demanded a trade from Philly to form the super stacked Suns teams of the mid-90's. Lebron didn't even demand a trade, he just left. Magic admitted that if he  comn't going to play with Kareem, the best player in the league, he was going to change his mind and not even come to the NBA and opt out of the draft. All this time Wade is getting 0 criticism when he was just as complicit in forming the 'new look' Heat as Lebron was, if not more since he championed the idea to sign 3 players at near max contract within the organization.

Charles Barkley Wins The MVP
Trophy: 1 Year After Forcing A Trade
Out Of Philly After A Single Losing
Season. Philly Hero Dr. J Passed Him
The Franchise Only 4 Years Earlier.
The 76ers Wins For 7 Years After
Chuck Ran: 26, 25, 24, 18, 22, 31, 28.
Deserter And Hypocrite Are Both
Spelled The Same: Barkley.
The story goes, instead of winning championships in an honest fashion Lebron has taken the easiest possible route and cut corners to attain success. Can critics be referring to changing teams? No, it's just a common reality of the NBA. MJ/Magic's teammates like Kareem, Rodman and Barkley himself changed teams to improve their situations. Kareem, like Chuck, demanded a trade and forced his way off the Bucks sending his championship team to the absolute mediocrity.

The only sensible argument left is "he's a ring chaser." Like Karl Malone going to join stacked LA. They claim an act of laziness was committed in the pantheon of hoops. In cheating the hard work of those greats he's tarnished his legacy at the young age of 25. It's a valid line of reasoning, but let's examine Lebron's choices and see if there is any truth to it.

Every team in the league could have, and would have, aquired Lebron James at nearly any costs. Your team, for the next 5 years, will make billions more in revenues. You become an automatic contender. With even decent talent you have a deep playoff run every year. It means you get the highest TV revenues for the playoffs. If you win 3 or 4 titles the profits you generate become just astronomical, and the NBA is famously a business.

He had all the cards in his hand. It was his choice with 29 suitors. Considering that they are building a team from scratch in Miami and still have a plethora of unanswered questions, lets count off the teams Lebron could have gone to that would have been an easier path to the title. To rephrase, the list of teams Lebron chose not to go to that would have been easier to win on then the Heat. All these teams with Lebron have to instantly be considered huge contenders if not title/finals locks which the Heat are not. The only question: was it possible? Here's the list in random order:


1. Boston Celtics


They are already good. Great even. This is probably their last season of contention, maybe second last? They're just getting old. But with Lebron they become an instant lock for the finals. They're loaded with options to make it happen.

The first one, stiff KG and trade him. Then Cleveland has to throw in another player actually.

The second, trade Ray Allen's expiring contract and throw in someone like Big Baby to make it happen. There's no way the Cavs say no and Boston was shopping Ray Ray this summer anyway. Or you can throw in Nate Robinson. Pierce's no trade clause prevents him from being involved.


2. LA Lakers


Could easily get him by trading Bynum who is essentially perfect for the scenario. He's a flier who could bring a huge season to the new team if he's healthy and become a star. If not, the next year his deal is expiring which gives you all kinds of leverage for rebuilding. If he's healthy, that lets you make a deal at the deadline to a team trying to add that one extra piece and get back lots of quality picks/contracts in return.

Or, package Vujacic's expiring deal of almost 6 million with Walton and change to make it happen and keep Bynum. The other team gets quality guys with short term deals and good rebuilding chips. LA gets a starting 5 of Lebron, Kobe, Gasol, Artest, Bynum/Odom as Lebron tries to emulate Magic and ravage the league for wins/rings during and after Kobe's career slow down.

3.Orlando Magic


Vince Carter is past his prime but still sells tickets. On a crap team, no doubt. In a situation like Cleveland's his scoring would jump back up as well. He has 2 years left on his deal so he's your's for one season and then becomes a 'very' attractive 17 million expiring deal the next season for whatever team needs to dump salary.

If you need to sweeten the pot to make the cavs want this, you just throw in Marcin Gortat who's awesome and the cavs will take back any other shitty contracts you want. They've also got a 5 million expiring Pietrus contract and a 2 year 4 million dollar contract for Brandon Bass that could be combined with Jameer Nelson's 2 year deal that the cavs would NEVER say no to.

4. LA Clippers

Lebron could have just signed with The Clippers: they had space. A deal with Baron Davis or Chris Kaman and whoever is a done deal and he's in LAC with him and Blake throwing Ally Oops to each other like they needed them to breath.

5. Portland Trailblazers
 
They have so many assets it would have been automatic. They could package Oden with Prisbilla in a deal the Cavs can not refuse. They can package Camby or Alderidge (thoguh I do not like his contract) in a deal they take. Or they straight up trade Brandon Roy cuz it's obvious that it's a massive upgrade. But they don't need to do that at all.





6. Chicago Bulls

They didn't even need to swing a trade since they had the cap room to take him on. This team was set up perfectly for him too. He just had to show up. The Bulls roster was so suited to Lebron that it almost looked like it had been constructed with him in mind. Lightening quick point guard who could create shots. Hard working defensive center who is 100% team oriented. Then a host of role guys who would feed off him like Taj Gibson. Pretty much the #1 spot for him to win titles right away. They're ready and even adding Boozer (whom I hate) instead of Bron, they are a much more complete team then Miami. They are easily the third best team in the east and possibly the second depending on how the Magic do.

7. Dallas Mavericks


The Mavs could have combined Caron Butler's expiring 10 million deal with Deshawn Stevenson's expiring 4 million dollar deal to make this happen overnight. Done. Dirk playing with Lebron and Kidd would be, well, just unfair. That means you could put Dirk on the floor with two of the best passers of their generation.








8. San Antonio Spurs

Tim Duncan playing with Lebron James, even at his age, is going to result in an amazing, stellar, elite team untouchable by anyone in the league. Duncan can teach Lebron how to do the heavy lifting like Robinson did for him. It would be ridiculous how Lebron would respond to Greg Poppavich, the guy who channeled Stephen Jackson into a Laker killing playoff assassin. To make it happen they just need to trade Tony Parker's expiring 13.5 million dollar contract. They like Parker, but not as much as they'd like Lebron James. Done deal.

9. The Sonics 


Oh, the Sonics. They are literally the 'only' team in this scenario with a player that the team won't trade for Lebron. Sorry Kobe, but if it was between you and another 5-10 years of dominance with the best player in the game, you're gone... not that LA would have had to do that if Lebron wanted to come, and not that they could have since Kobe indeed has a no trade clause. But they would.

With Nick Collison's expiring 7 million deal you're half way there without losing much. Morris Peterson's expiring 6 million dollar deal. What's that? You're within draft picks of Lebron James and you've only given up a guy who's best basketball was played in Kansas and the guy who Kobe Bryant scored 81 on. Both with awesome expiring deals worth more then their legit NBA pro games. Done like dinner.

Without mentioning Nenad Kristic's identical expiring 5 million deal or Daequan Cook's expiring 2 million dollar deal, or the absolute war chest of picks that Presti has collected that make any deal in the NBA totally possible. They're also 6.5 million under the cap.

10. Cleveland Cavaliers

What? Yes. The Cavs. They may not have been the easy route to a title but they were perhaps even the easiest team he could have picked. Lebron knew there would be a backlash if he left. He knew he'd be giving up a base of fans who adored him and trading that in for hate and resentment. He knew that leaving was giving up so much of what he had attained in life never having lived outside Ohio.

Change is inherently difficult. Ask the multitudes of people who feel hopelessly stuck in unhappy marriages and they're still there because changing their situation is too much for them to bear.

This Is Not An Easy Path

In some regards, staying in Cleveland was the easiest path of all. If he stays people trumpet 'The Decision' as a wonderful charity fund raiser from a player who has not forgotten his roots. Instead of a heel he's 'giving back to his community'. It becomes the happiest day in Cleveland sports history which is probably how Lebron envisioned the special in the first place when the TV deal was made (during the all star break). Choosing a path in which millions of people hate you is obviously harder then one in which those same millions love you.

9 teams. Count them. 9. And a tenth that was inherently easier without winning rings. A third of the league. Not just teams that would have been good with Lebron, these are teams that would have pretty easily become the best team in the league with him. And 10 teams that are very easily an easier choice/path.

Especially that Sonics team. With the growth of Durant slowly taking over as Lebron gets older. They could legitimately win 4-8 titles, or if that's pushing it, the lowest possible result barring injury etc. is best team in the league for 5-10 years straight.

Maybe Portland really doesn't have the goods to be the obvious best team in the league with Lebron, but they are instant contenders in the least as much or more then the Heat are this year. The other teams, they are instantly NBA alpha dogs. Miami looks good but have lots of work left to complete. A title is not guaranteed. They are obviously not the best team in the league yet. Spending that much on 3 guys is for sure an experiment and they hardly have the depth or size to be considered the best team. Till they figure it out, The Celtics, Lakers, Magic, Mavs, Spurs are still above them. The Sonics and Bulls are better as well. Maybe that will change by the end of the season but only if Miami makes some smart deals to fix the mistakes they made on players 5-12.

Just Wanted To Get These Hawks Girls In. :)
What is certain is the very best teams had easy options to acquire Lebron should he wanted to play there and all 9 choices resulted in a stronger team then the Heat and best team in the NBA status. Miami was 'not' one of these teams. New York with Amare, Utah with Deron Williams or Phoenix with Nash would be better teams then the Heat too. Or really the Hawks too. Which makes Miami at the 10'th or more easiest path Lebron could have taken to win. Which means it was some other motivation that pulled him to Miami then title chasing or corner cutting.

If this is the case, and I contend it is, MJ, Barkley and Magic (Simmons too) should all be ashamed for kicking a dog when he's down. Lebron has not had the best summer. He's become an easy target and even if the criticism is deserved they're just making up negativity that does not exist. When you take the 10'th or more most difficult route out of 29 it's factually not the easiest path.better a

Friday, November 5, 2010

Reggie Evans: The Beareded Boarder

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These Are Not The Only People Watching Evans
On The Glass This Year, Will He Be An MIP Candidate?





By Jeremy Graham

If Sampson got his strength from his hair does Reggie Evans get his strength from his beard? Are beards coming back into style? What we are trying to say, Reggie, is don’t trust sexy women unless they are into facial hair, and under any duress or circumstance… don’t shave!

Evans is the basketball cookie monster. He works himself into a frenzy and gobbles rebounds. The man is averaging 16 a game this season after barely seeing the floor in 2009 or 2010 as a perennial  bench warmer. How does one morph to being the best rebounder in the league?

Maybe it’s that only 3 games have been played this year. Makes sense, but one would have to forget that he has a history of being a pretty good rebounder; he just never saw the floor enough to be among the league leaders. He had the goods: per 36 minutes, Evans has averaged between 11.5-14.7 rebounds per game every season for his entire career.
If Rebounds Were Cookies: By Reggie Evans

Next consider his team. The Raptors are a pretty terrible on the boards. Andrea Bargnani, starting center, is averaging a paltry 3 per game and his career high is 6.2. He’s actually being out-rebounded this season by guards Jarret Jack and Demar Derozen. One could say this leaves all the boards for him, but I say it’s stepping up to the challenge with almost no help.

Once you consider his history you need to watch his game. Evans is everywhere the ball goes when it comes off the rim. Maybe this is just good luck with a small sample size and maybe he just has a sixth sense for where the ball is going to be.  It’s almost Rodman’esque. Like all the great rebounders before him, he always has position for both offensive and defensive rebounds. He is behind the player guarding him and boxing him out so he can get the offensive rebound. When you watch his game, it’s not luck but pure will and determination getting those boards; wanting the ball more. Rebounding really is only 20-30% skill, the rest is hustle… and heart. No one on the floor looks more determined to get to the ball than Evans. He will box out a teammate if he has to.

Then why is he only getting minutes now? The only thing i can think of was a lack of an offensive game and merely being an average defender. Despite being one of the toughest dudes in the league he’s still undersized at 6’8”. Having Bosh around must not have helped either but they sure could have used the rebounding and toughness down the stretch when Bosh was not giving a damn. If it’s offense I think a player getting 5 offensive rebounds a game should be considered a good offensive player. He’s not scoring himself but his offensive boards are converted into opportunities and point, not to mention prevent opponent fast breaks. Evans won’t even shoot after getting the board unless he is wide open so he is always making sure the ball gets back to the guys who run the offense.
People Forget That Making The NBA Is An Achievement
That Only The Most Elite Hard Working Athletes In The World Acomplish.
With This Attitude, No Wonder Toronto Signed Him

Hmm… I hate Chris Bosh! Yes I do, but I don’t want to end that way. Instead I will address some of the obvious questions.

Q: “Will he keep it up all year?”

A: The 16 per game pace. No. Rodman’esque is not actually Dennis Rodman.

Q: “Will he be among the league leaders at the end of the year?”
A: Absolutely. Only two things are in his way. First, he might start to lose minutes so the team can develop  younger players, especially if Ed Davis shows some life post surgery. This could happen if the Raptors fall out of the playoff race early. The second is fatigue. Evans is playing a purely strength based and energy consuming game right now.  If he’s spent his bench career preparing his body and conditioning for his break, for that kind of challenge, he will be okay. If not, it’s very likely he will slow down as the season wears on him.

One Must Agree, The Similarities Are Striking
Even considering this, if Evans gets 32 minutes a night he should easily get 12 boards a game, not to mention that 5-6 would be on the offensive end. With these numbers he could be the oldest player to win the most improved player award. Not only that but he would put himself in a good position, barring lockout, to get a nice final contract before he rides off into the sunset and eventually becomes the bouncer we all know his body made to be.ow dHow

Remember, R is for Reggie, and Rebound, that’s good enough for him.

And we mean it Reggie. What ever you do, keep the beard.