Thursday, April 23, 2009

Once Upon A Time In 2009: 5 All Time Outcomes NOW!

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If You Disagree, You're Wrong
Storybook endings are rare in sports but easily the most cherished moments. You'll feel lucky that you experienced that game instead of the highlights years later. Commonality is not memorable. Its almost never the actual play that determines if an event is going to be special. Its the details surrounding games and between whistles that drive the enormity the biggest reason we are sports fans. Its fun to try and predict them too when you're right, two years back I predicted the Warriors over Mavs upset and last year successfully picked Davidson to the elite 8. I picked GMU out in the first round though and lost both brackets and fantasy league though. ;0

A couple examples to get warmed up.

MJ. Career Game. Little to do with stats or records. Not the perfect game. Had they lost game 5 to the Jazz it probably would have broken the Bulls. Jordan's stomach virus was visibly making him wobble on court. In his face mind over matter was personified. Pushing out the fatigue, ignoring the sickness for just a few seconds, he focused for the mere seconds it took to score. Rather, rinse repeat until the hearts of Stockton/Malone were crushed to an irreparable state. People truly felt they were seeing something bigger then basketball that game. Watching anything other then the whole game at that specific date in time does not count. An epic struggle of a spectacular human vs. his own humanity, even if it was only sports. Anyone who claims a jumper after crossing/pushing Byron Russel tops that game is more misguided then "Mission Accomplished."

Its not the degree of difficulty of Reggie's biggest moment. Hiting 2 3's between stealing the in bounds pass to scored 8 points in 9 seconds to win... No, that was only amplification. It was IN Madison Square Garden. After a career of proving to Knicks fans that you can NEVER count out Reggie Miller they collectively started to celebrate and count out Reggie Miller. They thought the task too much for even him. He took it personally and for revenge decided he was going to rip out the hearts of an entire stadium/city full of Knicks fans, rip the confidence out from that heart and hold it still beating before their faces. Reggie Miller 1, city of 10 million, 0. If there was ever an F-You ball moment that was it. They did respect him by choice but by force. Reggie is one of the only players in history that truly did enjoy playing on the road as much as home and maybe the only guard that 'wanted' to play Jordan. Jordan was the biggest, and Reggie lived for the biggest moments.

He Did This To Them, They Chanted His Name


I tricked you though. The event above is not Miller's most spectacular or memorable moment; to me anyway. Its something much less famous. In Reggie's last game in NYC the Pacer hometown chant of Reggie! Reggie! raucously echoed in every corner of Madison Square Garden while fans stood on their seats to honor a player many had been indoctrinated to hate since birth. In MSG. Praising 'The Enemy'. It was like watching the Pope pray to Allah in the Sistine Chapel. Rudy's cheers pale in comparison. Ultimate respect for one of THE most important players in Knicks history and they made sure he knew it. Its my favorite sports moment ever.

The improbability drives the drama. The setting and context cause doubt. Most "I believe" moments have a "how silly was I" refrain. Outcomes will be negative almost always if something even has a chance to be shown on replays for 50 years. A handful of times though a player or team is up for the challenge. They say "We Believe". You say "BS, I don't". Then you get pulled over and someone decides to do something people will talk about till long after they are relevant anymore.

Check this list for 5 potential moments this post-season that offer players the slimmist chance of becomming bigger then the game itself. Lebron or Kobe winning will be cool and they'll be great but it whats expected to happen so its not going to really be that big a deal after they retire and the marketing campaign for them slows down. These aren't getting on the list for their likeliness to happen, but rather for the opposite, and the enormity of their importance if the miraculous did occur.

1. Allen Iverson Back "Heals"?


Need An Answer? Doc Has The Cure!

As I write this the Pistons are down 0-2 to the Cavs and the 'end of an era' columns are already showing up on every sports site on the internet. Everyone has written this team off after the Iverson trade and AI is looking like his career is headed in the same direction. Down. The Cavs are the best team in the league and Lebron it's best player and look unstoppable in a 7 game series. Their direction. Up.

There's only two games left for this to happen but should Iverson/Curry/Dumars/The Pistons sit down and make a commitment to each other true playoff history could be made. AI goes all out on a mission, the last of his career, destoring his body to quiet the doubter in a game 7 upset. The Pistons become the first team to ever come back from down 3-0.

After taking more criticism then ever in his historically criticized career AI proves to people he's a team player. The Pistons complete a memorable 4 game series ending sweep. Iverson shuts up everyone who's ever questioned him before. The Pistons shut up anyone who ever questioned their heart. On the other end this would be a crushing defeat for Lebron. One from which he may never recover much like Dirk never recovered from the warriors handing him his own ass on a first round exit platter. Moments like these can turn an entire career. Ask Nic Anderson.

Why It Can Happen: The Pistons are going to lose. It will look bad on them. It will look bad on Iverson. But have nothing TO lose. For the sake of the team someone like Dumars might try something historic.

Why It Won't Happen: NBA egos' and pride prevent people from doing things for the sake of the team anymore... that, and Lebron's own mission is in full effect.

Wow Factor: 8

Likelihood: 1

People Stop Talking: It would have to be 2030 at the earliest a while after Bron retires. Never at the latest especially if a 0-3 comeback occured. It would take a full generation for people to not bring it up. Would a loss this serious put a crack in his thus iron clad confidence? I think so.

2. KG Returns To Push Celts Over The Top

KG Is Actually A Cry Baby, But I'm Not Telling Him

KG's legacy is in the balance. He's proven that Minnesota's follies were not his doing. Ironically however, it's Celtic great Kevin McHale that he can impersonate to create the hallmark of his whole career erasing the criticism he recieved due to McHale's front office incompetence.

To get past the Cavs its most likely will have to return. If KG can emulate Willis Reed and come back the drama will go off the charts. If he can emulate McHale and play his heart out while hurt he may walk away with a limp for the rest of his life, but it will be a limp that makes his enormous paycheques useless in every New England bar for the rest of his life.

Why It Can Happen: There are few whose presence could make such a difference. And there are few with the psychotic intensity required to permanently injure yourself for the sake of winning one or two more games out of 7. If completed KG goes directly to first ballot of the all time warrior list. With KG the Celtics are the best team in the league. The Celts have gotten stronger without him and I can't see KG sitting for the whole playoffs without trying at least once. His return will make the Celtics go bananas. He's got one game to use that chip in so he'd better choose wisely.

Why It Can't Happen: This one is actually pretty likely given aforementioned insane intensity and the fact that it looks like KG can actually get on the court and perform, if in pain and not efficiently.

Wow Factor: 7

Liklihood: 9

People Stop Talking: Knowing Celtic's fans propensity to fanboy their legends (many still claim Bill Russell is the GOAT and no one is close) this might be never. But you'd got to expect this to be shown in retrospective at least once during every Celtics run for the next 50 years and then some. People should quiet down by 2050 but probably talk till at least 2075.

PS: I just watched that KG interview and am more convinced then ever that KG is the best teammate in the history of sports. If you have not watched it take the time: its worth seeing why he got his contract.

3. Dwayne Wade Plays Out Of His Mind


How Many Can Win A Series By Themselves?

Wade has done this one once before but with a team much better then these Heat. If his mediocre teammates can gel enough to keep them in enough games for Wade to take over in the clutch something speical can happen. Wade has to answer the challenge strongly enough for a truly historic run. The historical tipping point would be Wade vs Bron.

Lebron gets the MVP award in the same way as David Robinson was handed his award in game 1 vs Houston. Then Hakeem ripped out his heart, then ripped out his heart's confidence and held it in front of his face, beating. If Wade can respond with taking over the series and soundly out playing Lebron, especially defensively, he will have quieted all the people who foolishly voted against him and affirm himself as the best player in the world.

Writers roundly declared his career as an elite player over. If he can push the heat to winning the title like Dream did it will change everything. Wade gives us one of the most fantastic runs of all time and will start to be mentioned in the same breath as the holy unbreakable trinity of Magic/Bird/Jordan.

Why it Could Happen: Wade is ridiculously good and arguably the best in the world.

Why It Won't Happen: Lebron is ridiculously good and arguably the best player in the word... and has the much better team.

Wow factor: 9, (10 if champions)

Likelihood: 3 and 1 respectively

People Stop Talking: This goes the history of the league. It would put Wade into best player ever discussions as the only guard besides MJ to win without a dominant center. It would be considered the best individual run of all time.

4. Dirk/Mavs Put It Together And Win The Title


He's Fallen: Can He Get Back Up?

The Mavs are an odd team. They lack depth and have been underachieving since they started round 1 vs the Warriors two years ago. The Jason Kidd trade which was bad has now become under rated. Devin Harris' awesome performance has much to do with the team making him the focus of the offense. The sheer volume of negative press the trade received has so outweighed the trade's positives that its undervalued now.

Vetran teams that win championships are not regular season juggernauts. Instead of fast starts they play their best ball at the end of the season. See 08-09 Celtic's 27-2 record to start, KG injury, and subsequent early playoff exit (if #1 on this list does not happen) for examples of vet teams not winning championships. See the Spurs past few titles despite TD et al being either injured, on weaker teams or past their prime for examples of winning.

Its all logical. In the regular season depth matters. You play 3-4 games a week. If you win with your starters they will wear out and hurt the post-season chances. In the playoffs you play 1-2 games a week and rotations shorten as you give your best players heavy minutes. Start to kick after allstar, attain a higher seed then anyone thought capable, cream a weaker opponent in the first round and start to roll on your title run. In the post season you win with your best 6 players and since there's more days of rest older players have much less problem putting it all on the floor and then recovering for the next game 3 days later.

Being doubted all season helps. Shoulder chips for all! More then any other sport this matters in ball: you never want to play the team that feels disrespected or angry. After years of Dirk is soft articles, years of Jason Kidd being considered done and out of 'best PG in the league' discussions you'd better bet they have something to prove.

Why It Can Happen: Kidd can still play and wisely waited till the last month to step up his game, Dirk is still in his prime and Josh Howard has underachieved all year. The Mav's bench players like Bass/Barrera et al have stepped it up. If the many cards fall right Dallas still has the pieces to be very elite. Elite yet under rated teams have a habit of surprising teams and occasionally winning titles.

Why It Can't Happen: Other then having ref's who are in their pockets instead of the Heat, they've always had the pieces. They've never gotten it done. Why should it be different?

Wow Factor: 8

Likliness Factor: 5

People Stop Talking: Hard to judge. I say 2015-2025. Once Kobe retires it won't be nearly as big. This would be enormously discussed right now however consensus would quickly build that the Mavs were always underrated while the other two over rated lessening the achievement of the Mavs. A bevy of reasons they lost before would seem very reasonable if they got the title. People don't talk about the Rockets first Dream Championship cuz it was pretty obvious they were the best team with the best player now. People forget no one thought that at all going in. AT ALL.

5. Derrick Rose Pulls A Magic


This Kid Can Flat Out Play

Very few rookies start. Fewer still are their team's leaders. Only one has led their team to a championship. After two games vs the Celtics Rose has shown he's got the chops to be a truly great player. If he can play at the same level he showed in game 1 what really is the ceiling of this Bulls team?

A Rose/Bulls that consistent can take out the Celtics without KG. With the confidence they gain from that can they push the Cavs? One thing is for certain: if the Rose/Bulls we have seen thus far in the playoffs was playing all season the Bulls win at least 10-20 more games, have home court and be roundly considered championship contenders, if only a dark horse.

Why It Can Happen: It's happened before, it will happen again. Its only a matter of time. A great point can turn almost any underachieving team into a winner and the bulls have proven they've got a whole arsenal of weapons to throw at teams.

Why It Can't Happen: Youth gives you great legs but can be a serious bitch. How are the Bull's front line going to respond the first time foul trouble hits in the first quarter? Probably with panic, more fouls and a loss.

People Stop Talking: Since it's year one of the Derrick Rose era he probably won't retire until at least closeish to 2030. If he pulls it off and has the career that appears to be in front of him it will take everyone who watched to die before they shut up. So the basement is probably 2060. The ceiling 2100 or never.

5A. Little Brothers Are Not Allowed To Win Fights


The Dominant Story Of The Present Era Could Be Story Book... If The Real Shaq Is Behind The Mask

This was scenario one I wrote before the Suns were eliminated from the playoffs and before Amare went out for the season.

Should the Suns make the playoffs Shaq's 8'th place team will face the Lakers in one of Kobe's last chances to prove he could win without the Diesel. The beef is real: not marketing. Both would relish putting their own stamp on the defining moment of the tail end of each other's careers. For Kobe he would push Shaq out of the post season on his way to his first non-Shaq championship. But that's expected.

Shaq is supposed to lose that matchup though. The setting is perfect. If he lays it ALL on the floor and pushes his body at 36 what it used to do 5-10 years earlier, he could make a statement 1000's of times stronger then "Kobe how my ass taste!" No rap neccessary, this would be pure drama and ultimate revenge against the team and player that deserted him after he delivered 3 championships and one more finals appearance in 5 years. After that win Shaq could say anything, any slam at all or nothing at all, and they would have to take it. It defines story book.

Its not likely but without the setup for something unlikely nothing truly historic can happen.

Why It Will Happen: Shaq is playing better then he has in years and the Suns are playing their best ball of the year. Nash and Amare have already sent Kobe packing a few times and have a mental edge to compete with him. Shaq has he's twice the player when he cares and might totally get into Kobe's head if say during game 1, Shaq does something crazy like the Jabberwokeze dance to get the crowd on his side, and then goes insane in the game and gets cheers. Kobe's head would split in two pieces if people in LA gave Shaq love in the playoffs.

Why It Won't Happen: Bynum should be back by the playoffs and the Lakers look just too strong with Gasol, Odom, Bynum, Kobe and decent role players. They should be the best team in the West and have a cakewalk to the finals.

Wow Factor: 10 given the history

Likelihood: 4 The suns are better after allstar then before. They're way above what their record indicates. If their shooters connect you never know what happens. Live by the 3 teams sometimes live.

Most truly great historic playoff moments are nearly impossible to predict because there's nothing truly memorable about the best team winning a title. That's why MJ's 3 most famous moments are the flu game, his switch hands shot when he was the underdog vs the Lakers and his final shot in Utah when he was supposed to be too old. Its rare people talk about his Phoenix, Seattle or Portland series even though they were better performances of unquestioned dominance.

In the same way there is very little talk about the Celtics past dynasty. They were an unbeatable super team. Winning was assumed so when they won it wasn't special unless you were a Celtics fan or your team was crushed by them. The sagging popularity of the league when the Celts dominated is a strong indicator of this.

If even one of these events took place it would be nothing short of spectacular. Just like the flu game or Reggie receiving adoration from his sworn enemies. These events fans would rehash throughout their own lives, retelling to their children and subsequently their grandchildren. Its what makes sports transcend generations and truly great. So while unlikely if we keep our fingers crossed maybe, just maybe, something just ridiculous will happen and in 2009 I'll be happy to know that I lived the moment instead of watching the highlights of it.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

D12: DPOY: MVP Candidate: Dwight Howard Unnoticed?

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Clark Kent Has Left The Building
I'm not going to pretend that Dwight Howard is not getting attention. He's slated to win DPOY and discussed in the MVP talk but not nearly the way he should be. The Magic won 59 games this year, good for third in the east with a PG who was never taken seriously, going down, and replaced with a playground baller turned pro. The team features other such 'stopper staters' as Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson/Raefer Alston and Mickael Pietrus. Orlando Magic defensive rating: #1.

With the Celtic's latest KG news the Magic have to be considered favorites to reach the eastern finals: Philly/Chicago/beat up Celtics can't be considered a bigger challenge then Detroit/Miami/Atlanta, right? Not when the Magic have handed it to the Greens all season.

The media has anointed him 'most dominant big in the league'. Right? The magic came together as a team and he's getting all the credit he deserves. Right?

Wrong. I follow the league. Dwight Howard is the center piece of my (first place, rock!) fantasy team. I check his box scores nearly every time he plays. In a recent ESPN MVP writer's poll he got paltry results... 1 second-place vote, 2 third, 10 fourth, 1 fifth.

I follow daily yet I was not aware of his progress. The capacity of the leap is astounding. I took a look, and a double take, at the numbers. This year is not a campaign for most dominant player in the league. This year is the start of a campaign for most dominant big in history. This includes you, Big Shaqtus.

Three disclaimers.

1. I'm not comparing Dwight to Shaq Daddy today. This is Shaq in his prime vs Dwight before he enters his.

2. I realize rules have changed recently increasing things like scoring. But its also made it harder for bigs to defend and board. Move over league history. Dwight is here and will be most dominant ever.

3. Only having access to stats from 1986 on I know this leaves players out of the mix. Honestly however basketball before this time was a different game. Sorry if it offends you but Wilt and Russel would not be anywhere near the players they were after 1986 on. That's my opinion I suppose, and I cede that on sheer dominance, Wilt would blow Dwight away on these lists, but I literally don't have the resources to show that era's stats or I would. So this is really just about the more modern era of ball. On with it!

Edit: One more disclaimer. Got into a discussion on a forum about this post and a litany of incredibly angry ball fans appeared to be mortally insulted that I could suggest Shaq was anything but the most dominant player ever and Dwight his little bitch. So people should note (or perhaps you know, just read the following definition that should have taken care of this in the first place) that I don't actually claim Dwight is better then Shaq. Nor do I think he's better, greater or more acomplished then Shaq. He's too young to be compared at that level.

I claim he's more dominant which is a measure of how good you are in relation to your peers and I back it up fairly well. Shaq was great and dominant but played in an era with peer big men who were periodically above him, below him and close to him. So, to the edumacated among us, here's a place you can get help and I have some great Dr. Seuss books... lets continue.

Nature's Version Of Dwight Howard
Dictionary.com says

Dominate:
–verb (used with object)
1. to rule over; govern; control.
2. to tower above; overlook; overshadow: A tall pine dominated the landscape.

Stats too often focus on a single category over a season and miss the forest for the trees. Its how a player combines all cats in a single game that counts. I define center dominance as points, rebounds and blocks. Comparison is not really what the dictionary wants here either. He must dominate the landscape as the mighty pine. So, lets compare Dwight, one player, to the entire league, of 432 of players.

First up, a double double. For bigs it only indicates you are doing your job. Its not dominant. If you block 5 shots in the process however you're starting to own the paint. How many games is Dwight's mark?

10/10/5 Club
Years ProPlayerPos10/10/5 Games
1NBAA32
2Dwight HowardC14
3Marcus CambyF5
4Andris BiedrinsC3
5Tim DuncanF3
6Chris AndersenF2
7Yao MingC2
8Josh SmithF2


Not so great Dwight. The entire league has 18 more 10/10/5 games while you only have 14. Never mind that its 3 times number 2 Camby, nearly 5 times Duncan/Biedrins and 7 times everyone else. It takes the next 5 top players in the league to equal your total Dwight. You can't dominate a girl scout.

Dwight's Response: 10 points nor 10 boards are anything to get excited about. I'm all man now so get those child stats outta my house.

We'll oblige the big fella. Lets add 5 boards to that total.


10 points, 15 boards, 5 blocks

Rk Player Pos Games
1Dwight Howard C 10
2Entire NBAA4
3Andris Biedrins C 1
4Marcus Camby F 1
5Tim Duncan F 1
6Al Horford C 1


Once the numbers reflect raw pwnage inside, Howard more then doubles the entire NBA's production. Individuals only have 1 such game a piece. Lets keep going, but its not fair to list them anymore. Sorry Timmy... you didn't make the cut. Just to show whats happening with Dwight Howard vs. the world the numbers have to be increased.

15/15/5

Years ProPlayer15/15/5 Games
1Dwight Howard8
2NBA2



20/20/5 Games
Years ProPlayer20/20/5 Games
1Dwight Howard2
2NBA0


4 times the whole NBA in 15/15/5 games? INSANE! Did you notice? In the 20/20/5 club of "I am center, hear me roar" Dwight Howard is putting up infinity percent more then the rest of the league. Infinity percent, times two, to be precise.

Which leads us to history. For a BIG the 20/20 personifies the separation of good and great. The marker of a truly dominant player. Dwight is on pace to own the record for most 20/20 games in about 1.5 years. Maybe sooner as he is still developing. The top of the 20/20 list looks like this.

Years ProPlayerPos20/20 Games
1Charles BarkleyF37
2Hakeem OlajuwonC35
3Shaquille O'NealC34
4Kevin GarnettF27
5Dwight HowardC23

People Are As Close To Howard As AI Is To Making This shot
Considering potential, time remaining and all that jazz, there are no active players who are realistically close. Al Jefferson has 20/20 skills except in his fifth year he only has four 20/20 games to 23. Big Al is preobably the closest to compete!

By the time Howard is done wreaking his brand of havoc he could easily have 60 of these games. Unheard of in the modern era of basketball.

To put it yet another way: only 9 players have topped Dwight Howards 9 20/20 games this season, wait for it, in their entire cumulative careers. And none before they were 23.

As I write this Howard is not yet finished his fifth year of pro ball. He already has more 20/20's then this bunch in their whole lifetime. Be sure to note the number of years each player took, multiply by 'star power' and consider how in less then 5 years he's overtaken them.


Years ProPlayerPos20/20 Games
16Charles BarkleyF37
17Hakeem OlajuwonC35
16Shaquille O'NealC34
13Kevin GarnettF27
5Dwight HowardC23
22Kevin WillisF22
11Tim DuncanF19
16Patrick EwingC18
13David RobinsonC13
19Karl MaloneF12
17Dikembe MutomboC9
18Chris WebberF9
12Marcus CambyF7
20Moses MaloneC7
20Robert ParishC7
7Yao MingC3
15Alonzo MourningC2
7Arvydas SabonisC2


Sabonis gets a pass. Had he played in his youth he would have torn the NBA to pieces. He was so good that the NBA would have been an entirely different era with different players winning championships.

Years ProPlayerPos20/20 Games
78Mike DunleavyG1


Mike's Typical Day In The Paint
Mike Dunleavy also gets a pass cuz Mike Dunleavy is a FREAKING GUARD! Have you seen him? He's a rail. "BIG WOW" to you Mike Dunleavy!

Can I repeat again that he is only 23 years of age??? 50 or 60 20/20 games is actually Dwight's low mark. At 25 he should be sitting neatly at 40 and first place all time. Should we expect 80? 100? If his body can keep up like TD's (who had a 20/20 this year at 34) 100 20/20 career games might be his ceiling with 60-80 being his likely result.

Forget scoring. For a center points are the easy work. Focusing on boards alone Dwight is 10'th all time in 20 rebound games. Here's the list.


RkPlayerPosGames
1Dennis RodmanF159
2Dikembe MutomboC52
3Charles BarkleyF48
4Ben WallaceF41
5Hakeem OlajuwonC40
6Kevin GarnettF36
7Shaquille O'NealC35
8Kevin WillisF35
9Marcus CambyF33
10Dwight HowardC31

Yes! 159 More Excuses To Put Up Weird Dennis Rodman pics
Props to the Worm. Maybe the most under-rated player of all time and the undisputed best pure rebounder ever. I digress: that's another column. He didn't put up points or blocks like D12.

What should be noted is that at age 23 Dwight is in 10'th place with 9 more 20 board games then Duncan and 10 more then Ewing. If he continues having 10 20 board games a season (like this one) he'll pass everyone except Rodman before he's 25 and again just entering his prime.

That's historically. Measures of domination are not against history but by outperforming peers. Why can we safely assume that baring injury he's going to continue pulling down 20's so frequently? Lets look at the list of active players who have had even 1 20 board game and is under 30. No offense to TD et al, but they're in the twilight of respective brilliant careers. This is the competition.








Rk Player Pos Games
5Dwight HowardC23
25Chris KamanC5
28Dirk NowitzkiF5
29Carlos BoozerF4
32Al JeffersonF4
36Amare StoudemireF4
44Yao MingC3
46Emeka OkaforF3
49Andrew BogutC2
50Chris BoshF2
51Tyson ChandlerC2
61Zach RandolphF2
72Nick CollisonF1
87Al HorfordC1
90David LeeF1
96Troy MurphyF1


There's not a lot of competition there. Only 16 have even one 20 board game and #2 is 25'th all tim with 5 of them. When you consider that most of them are closer to 30 then 25, much less 23, and most of them have already started to break down, the list is actually shrinking and this league is Howard's. A few other views to consider.

The 15/15/5 club, active and under 30, is a small club.

RankPlayerPosGames
1entire league:A17
2Dwight HowardC12
3Emeka OkaforF6
4Yao MingC5
5Chris KamanC2
6Andris BiedrinsC1
7Tyson ChandlerC1
8Al HorfordC1
9Josh SmithF1


Lets talk blocks. (3 times fast!) D12 vs. the league. Starting at 3/game: everyone has a game with a block or two. It goes without saying: Howard is in first place for every row until you factor in the league thing. I factored in fluke games for this one. If a guy has a solitary >5 block game in an entire season that's a statistical burp; not a peer of Dwight Howard. I included some percentages on who owns what as well.
x BlocksHowardEntire LeagueNon-Fluke Games# Of Others
# Of Non-Fluke OthersDH's % Of Total GamesDH's % Of All x BLK Games (Non Fluke)% Of DH Games With x BLKS
% Of 432 Who Can't% Of 432 Who Can't Or Fluke
342879830167112555361
74
424312268100567830
7787
51510372521913171988
96
68332021720291095
98
721177315223
9899
824040331003
99
100
91101050n/a1100100
1010000100n/a1100100

I'm not sure what is more astounding considering any position is totally capable of having a few blocks in a game; that 5%/8% of all 3/4 block games or 30% of all 6 or more block games (non-fluke) in a league of 432 players are his.
x BoardsHowardEntire
League
Non-Fluke
Games
# Others# Non-Fluke OthersDH's % Of All x-Board Games
DH's % Of All x-Board Games(Non-Fluke)% Of DH Games With x BLKS% of 432 Who Can't% of 432 Who Can't Or Fluke
1063204120052001703380
5461
1159144013791861304475
5770
1255990942147995670
6677
1351679645117837765
7381
1445435401956191057
7886
153428425975
50
111243
8883
16231691455430121429
8893
17191181004224141624
9094
181775573617182322
9296
19144528269243318
9498
20102716187273813
9698
2161379332468
9899
223937125504
9899.7
232532129403
10099.7


Again, whats most impressive? He's responsible for almost 40% of the non-fluke 20 board games and 46% of the non-fluke 21+ board games or that half the league is not even capable of having one 10 board game while Howard has 63 of them. That's a 75% chance every night. Maybe its a nearly 60% chance he pulls down 14 boards, every, single, night. There is no player like this today. There are very few players like this in the past. Once Dwight Howard actually reaches his prime there will be no player in history like this.

Last point. Lets consider something other then stats. In the ESPN voting page I linked to one of the writers said "Dwight needs to improve at the offensive end. 20 ppg won't win MVP." Being a good offensive player is not always about putting the ball through the hoop and its not always about being the player to have the ball right before another player scores.

Dwight's presence inside demands a constant double team/team defensive strategy. Opponents collapse on Dwight which gets easy open looks for others. Go inside, the defense collapses, pass back out and swing it to the weak side for a great look. That IS the Magic's offense. Anyone paying attention when watching realizes that Howard is involved in nearly every single scoring play. Free looks and open lanes for everyone aboud and thats because of him... not Hedo and Lewis.

He's been so effective he made perennial laughing stock Jameer Nelson an all-star. The fact he scores 20 PPG only indicates his willing attitude to work within the structure of the offense to create the best opportunity to score points instead of getting his. He's happy playing for 59 wins despite downgrading his point (and losing his bench point) then for 50 and 30 PPG.

Howard is ranked 7'th or 8'th on mock MVP ballots behind players like Billups, Kobe, Pierce and Brandon Roy. I challenge anyone doing so to look at these numbers and honestly tell me he's not top 3. Dwight is unmistakeably on a historical tear starting this season and ending approximately 5-10 years later when micro fractured knees meet kryptonite edged scalpels. If they hold off till then he'll also shatter nearly every important stat for a big man in the modern era of basketball. In many cases, doubling the current all time mark. The Magic have the best defense in the league and not because #12 is really entertaining in the dunk contests. Its time for people to take notice. Superman has landed.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Is The Wizards Ceiling Higher Then The Basement?

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Remember When Agent 0 Did Things Like This
I was recently listening to Bill Simmons discuss the Wizard's front office futility with his buddy House, a die hard Wizards fan. The risky contract they gave to Arenas, refusal to break up the team or make trades after multiple seasons in the basement are getting panned universally. This was no different.

"Whats their ceiling? Going out in the first or second round?" was Bill's estimate.

Its overly harsh. Their handling of Lebron and the Cavs showed lots of promise that maybe was not such a surprise to the front office. What is the ceiling of the healthy Wizards? Is it really just first round exit? There's a few questions that people should be asking.

Should Arenas even be playing?

Maybe its a risk. His come backs have all been rushed and resulting in re-injury. This time he's waited over a year and reports say his leg is 8 times stronger then his last attempt. I doubt he's going to spend his summer trying to make 100,000 jumpers this time either. The most retarded rehab effort I've ever heard of... he had to stop when his knee started to swell. I'm sure he's learned his lesson. The Wizards are taking a chance but I think Gil needs to go into the summer knowing he's still capable to enter next season confident.

The following savy front office move goes unacknowledged too. Season almost over, team has the worst record, upcoming renewal for season tickets and the worst economy since the great depression. Washington swung for the fences and made contact. How many season tickets do you think will be renewed on the basis of that solitary super charged home win against their rival and best team in the NBA? I'm betting a whole bunch. In one game Arenas/Washington gave their fans something to hope for and believe in. Basketball moves don't always make money. More money always puts you in a position to win more games if your owner cares. Money is always the difference between a team staying or leaving.

So where was this team the last time they were healthy?

People's memories are short. Less then a season after the Spurs lucked past Phoenix people say "they just can't beat the Spurs without playing D." No mentions that Nash was out for the end of game 1 because of a bloody nose and/or the Amare suspension.


Bet you Steve Nash Remembers!

Thats only linked with their string of bad luck. They've been labeled not good enough to beat SA and the reason is always no defense instead of the things that caused their losses. People call the past Lakers three peat team unstoppable except they were bailed out by the refs against the Kings/Blazers and the Charles Barkley injury in successive years. No one mentions their 3 straight were not earned. Short memories.

In 05/06 the Wiz had the sixth best offense in the league and took Cleveland (who made the finals) to an incredibly tight 6 games. It says something that they almost beat the team that did beat Detroit. In 06/07 when last healthy they had the best record in the Eastren Conference, were 10 games over .500 and playing over .600 ball. Things were looking up, way up.






What happened... did they lack the talent to win?

Then the problems started. Caron Butler missed 20 games that overlapped Jamison's own missed 12 games. Once back they lost Arenas and the season was over. They managed to salvage a .500 record and make the playoffs but got swept in the first round by Bron Bron and the Cavs.

In 07/08 Agent Zero rode the IR for a full season (consequently destroying my fantasy team's first place hopes. :( 2'nd) Solace: Caron Butler started to blossom into a big time player. Taking and making game changing shots he and Jamison led the Wiz to a 43-39 record and the playoffs without their best player. They couldn't handle the Cavs but they were playing without a player who produces 30 points, 6 dimes, 5 boards, 2 steals and is their unquestioned game closer. If the Cavs played without James I bet they don't beat Washington with Arenas either.

Should they have resigned 'The Hibachi'?

They re-signed their injured cornerstone hoping the medical staff was right when they said he could make a full recovery. People spout opinions but never have the sensitive data from team doctors about health. Statements are almost always conjecture amid the ballyhoo of the armchair athleate.

Denver got slammed for giving Nene a contract and now he's the best defensive NBA 5. Wade got written off too: he's an MVP candidate. Arenas has entered the Wade zone and is hoping for redemption. You have to recgonize that teams employ the best sports medicene specialists in the world to help them make decesions 'not' based on conjecture. So at least give a little slack. It sounds risky to me too: but if Arenas is fully back he is a max deal player without doubt.

So what can they do now... has the team gotten better or worse?

Move to the present. In the draft they picked up super athletic Nick Young and solid big Javale McGee. Brendan Haywood continues to develop as a dependable rotation player. Add a bonefide superstar to the mix (pending full recovery by Arenas) and the Wizards are looking like a legitimate sleeper to come out of the east.

Sooner Then Later: Griffin's Going To Make Impact Wherever He Lands

That's now. Consider this year's draft prospects: a serious shot at Blake Griffin. After watching Griffin in the tournament his addition to the Wizards roster would push them to contender and improving status. If the balls don't go their way however they still get a very high pick and can grab a solid point guard from whats left in a weak draft year for every other position.

Whats their ceiling? I'm not sure they have one. A team with a legit superstar in his prime if Arenas can complete The Wade next year. A legitimate second scoring option who can and has been #1 on a winning team. Talented youth. Experienced vets. Bring in a decent coach from the large pool of qualified non-working coaches. Lots of options for trades.

That's a winning combination for a very successful team and you've got to at least say they could make the East finals. Without Arenas Butler/Jamison took them to 43 wins. 3 or 4 more puts them in 4'th place matching up against a very beatable Atlanta Hawks. Could they challenge the Cavs in a series like they used to? It looks possible.

Back to that game. It meant way more to Cleveland then they let on. Dates with Orlando, San Antonio and Boston are on the schedule. Half of their remaining games are on the road and Celtics/Lakers have favorable schedules. They needed this game to secure home court in a tight race.



They Didn't Just Win , They Beat Lebron James
Washington didn't just win this game. And it wasn't a matter of the Cavs expecting to coast and being caught off guard. James was quoted saying "Records don't matter when we play eachother." The Wizards controlled the game against their rival from the opening tip with the first healthy Arenas in 2.5 years. The Wizards' have 17 wins. The Cavs have 60+ and came into Washington riding a 13 game winning streak.


Too many make their names by jumping on teams/people who are down. Its easy to kick people with bad luck: they already look like losers which puts them right at boot height. How many tough breaks a franchise can get in a row? The Wizards are still wondering what happens to their team when that luck finally starts to turn back to positives. I think a little faith is admirable in today's sports universe. Sometimes faith pays off. Ask Lebron James what happens when the down and out kicks back. They play again at home and you can bet its going to be a barn burner.
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Could Iverson/Pistons Dilema Have Been Fixed?

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Easy To Take Shots At; Hard To Understand
I just read the following from JA Adande on ESPN.com:
If Allen Iverson means it when he says he'd rather retire than keep coming off the bench then this isn't an issue for Pistons coach Michael Curry or president Joe Dumars to resolve. This is a matter for Dr. Phil, because this is about Iverson's love of the game, his commitment to a relationship that's lasted for a quarter of a century.
Even this AI fan is falling for it. Allen Iverson has just shut it down for the season due to a 'back injury'. He's played through sprained ankles, debilitating sickness and broken bones. Its not his back people. He's encountered a strain to a part he just can't cope with: his heart.

I appreciate JA's analysis and perspective but he has this call wrong. There's 3 basic jobs in the NBA. GM's assemble teams for success. Coaches take players and create the best possible team/individual system and shows people how to play in it. Players follow the direction of the coach and execute that system to win games.

When 2 of these 3 institutions do a good job the result is success: two groups will motivate the third. When only one of them do their job an organization becomes disjointed and all three show frustration as it's sucked into the void. View any clippers season (except the one before Livingston got hurt and the Larry Brown year) and you'll see examples.

Is Iverson to blame? Partly, for sure. But JA is wrong when he thinks its only Iverson's issue.
Some Coaches Solve Problems, Some Sulk And Blame Their Players

Dumars brought Iverson into a system that was an obvious bad fit before the ink dried on the dotted line. Michael Curry failed in developing a system he could sell to his top 3 players and the team as a whole. Iverson? I truly believe Iverson has tried to work with the Pistons. His statement is honest: his game is dominating the ball and doing this is how he's most effective. Its not his fault: it's just who he is and he's saying he's not being competitive. Remember: the Pistons chose him... he did not choose the Pistons.

That's Dumars' fault but realistically the Iverson trade was a money dump which makes sense for the future of the team. He has done his job but it will just take a few years to show up in the W column. Iverson would love to do his job but can't and is a little past his prime to win lots of games with his style. These are facts. That leaves us with Curry. Curry really has not done much but try and slot Iverson into different roles of the team he used to coach before the trade happened.

No wonder he's had trouble selling it to the players. How do you really sell a game plan to the players that takes an all-star guard and puts him on the bench so the new guy can try and outperform him in that role? How are the other starters who went to war, won a title and made 7 straight conference finals with Rip at the 2 going to react to that? Badly. Iverson clearly does not fit Rip's role in the starting system anyway. Rip played it at a championship level so how does changing something that's not broken improve your team?

Plan B failed too. Take a player who's entire game is working with the ball in his hands and try and make him fit in as a reserve. How do you sell that to the team or Iverson? An all-star with the ball in his hands who made the finals that way. Now you expect him to excel hitting spot ups off the bench? Iverson feeds off of competition, playing hard and above all else contributing to his team's success. He's a hero player. Its his game.

I say kudos to both Rip and Al for trying both attempts over this season but hand Curry a big boo-urns for sulking that Billups is gone. Both minimally complained and expressed personal frustration that coming off the bench is not helping them help the team. Only Iverson took heat however when he complained that him being on the bench does not help the team and not adjusting. The man no one is talking about though, the coach, has been trying to fit square pegs in a round holes all season long.

Instead of creating a maximizing approach for his team's abundant talent Curry he's hanging onto his past team like Britney holds onto her past career. Its to the point now where Iverson is considering retirement openly. Curry gave up on a still prolific and capable player before he got there. In doing so he gave up on a season as well.

Whats needed is a game plan. One built around the pistons on the roster. One that keeps everyone happy. One that has a role for everyone to contribute. Whats needed is some compromise. So why not give Allen Iverson this challenge.

You say: "AI, we know you've got trouble playing with our team. We know you need to be the star to be effective. Lets try something no one has ever done with you before."

I guarantee you, I'd bet a year's salary on it... Iverson's ears would perk up at this sentence. Instantly. What he told the press was not "I want to quit basketball" but that he's starting to think basketball is quitting on him. That everything has been tried and he just does not work on winning teams anymore. AI is saying he's not in it for the money.

Throw down this plan on him. Instead of trying to make Iverson change his style create a separate system for him. Build a second unit around his skill sets, then use it to crucify opposing team's benches and starters alike. It would be feared in the league. Say "We don't want to change how you , AI, we want you to change games."

Iverson is absolutely listening now. Iverson is still coming off the bench but because of the packaging rather then insulting his talent its challenging him. Show him clips of the Knicks team that made the finals with Spreewell leading a second charge off the bench that would change up the looks the opponents saw and often blow them away as the defense tried to adjust to the style switch on the fly. Teams were constantly caught with their pants down when Ewing went off the court the tempo changed.

It makes sense. The starters are too good together to change their system. Iverson is too Iverson to be effective playing any other way. Its a way to be himself, be proud of the way he contributes and not distract the team. It absolutely makes the Pistons much tougher to scout and match up with. Using the 'bad boy' unit you can lock down and dig in. Then switch to AI mode and run them off the floor and no team will know when its coming. Check out the line ups.

"Bad Boys"
5 Sheed
4 Dice
3 Prince
2 Rip
1 Stucky

That is what the Pistons are winning with right now. Great starting 5.

"AI Mode"
5 Kwame Brown (who did prove he can play a little in LA in the playoffs)
4 Jason Maxiell (who's also under used)
3 Amir Johnson/Hermann
2 AI/Afflalo/Bynum
1 AI/Afflalo/Bynum

Unit 2 is not going to win 50 or 60 games. But they could win 5-10 minute stretches. No sweat. There is not a leader who plays with more heart then AI. Its right on his sleeve and it WILL get Kwame going. It will get their bench guys going who thus far are severely under-performing.

Lots of combinations and possible tweaks exist too. Move Maxiell or Johnson to center and go small. Take prince and put him at the 3. Take any starter and move him to play with the second unit. The main point is that when the second unit is on the floor you play with a different game plan that utilizes Iverson's skills to put points on the board.

Its a match up nightmare. Your team gets ahead in the game D'ing up Detroits systematic offense. Your 2 is fighting Rip off screens. Your 4 or 5 is getting help to contain Sheed's inside/outside game. You're defending the pick and roll and Detroit's other half-court sets well. Then Iverson comes in and your point guard is getting isolated on the wing while the rest of the players are clearing out the strong side to run back in off screens while Iverson creates. Do you really think Daniel Gibson could have handled this in the Pistons last Cavs loss? Nope and I'll prove it.

Curry's ineptitude was shining bright recently in Cleveland. Iverson was finally given some minutes in the fourth. That is after running the offense throuugh Will Bynum created a 7 point deficit in the quarter. 9 plus/minus if you include the Bynum shot that Joe Smith swatted. 11 if you include his missed dunk. 13 if you count his bricked jumper. 14 because he could not stay in front of Mo Williams who hit Bron for an clear path pass on a back door play. The Cavs announcer needed extra dry cleaning to say the least after that.

So at the nine minute mark Iverson was allowed to use the ball. Every time AI pushed, this happened. Drained a pull up. Uncontested jumper in the key. Shot a pass to Maxiell from the 3 point line under the hoop for an easy lay in. Will Bynum missed a point blank lay up in transition. Shot Sheed a pass from under the hoop to the 3 point line for a wide open trey. (missed) Split the defense, drove the lane, easy lay up. Will Bynum threw a pass away then promptly raced down to foul 23 for the and 1. (at least he got a dime!) Drew a foul on Big Z trying to contain AI. AI got blocked. Good D by MO. Stuck on MO like glue forcing him to miss a shot. Gave it to McDyce for a wide open jumper. (missed) Almost turned it over driving to the hole but ripped it away from Varajeo and called time too quickly for him to react. Then as a reward for saving the possession Curry used the timeout Iverson fought for and called to take him off the floor.

For that 5:50, with the ball, they were down 7. Iverson responded with 9 points on 4 of 5 shooting, two assists, two wide open looks for teammates, 1 drawn foul, got the lead, and was pulled from the game. They were down 3 when Curry pulled him. They lost the lead when Bynum threw the rock away and fouled Bron. In fact, the only scoring plays Bynum was involved in during the stretch was when he passed it to AI and got out of his way. Curry put the starters back in and they promptly let the lead balloon to 8 before losing by 6. Oh yea, he also took a slap-in-the-face sized stake and drove it through the most exposed heart in the league. (its on his sleeve) In 18 minutes AI outscored everyone except Rip's 13 with 11 points. 9 in that 6 minute stretch when they, you know, let him play.

It was Iverson's second game back after not playing for over a month, after he rushed back from his back injury to contribute. Whats inside the mind of Curry? Well, this was his thinking before Iverson came back.

"Maybe Allen comes in and plays a lot of time at Will Bynum's spot," Curry said.

Now legions of fans, writers and anyone else are saying Iverson's horrible attitude and selfishness is why the Pistons are not doing well. Then questioning his heart. Then saying its his fault. I'm sorry, but that is bullshit. Iverson blamed 'himself' for his frustration, 'himself' for his failure to compete, 'himself' for everything. Even when its blatently Curry's arrogance and or incompetence thats directly to blame.

Put Iverson on a stationary bike like PJ did with Rodman. Or put him in the back hitting jumpers to keep in rhythm. Just make it work. If the starters start having an off quarter you throw AI in to play at top speed with his heart on his sleeve, get the fans into it and see what might happen. Maybe the goal of the AI crew is to run Iverson at another team's bigs and tally up a few quick fouls.

The Pistons Can't Comprehend 'Crazy For A Championship' Like They Used To
Rodman is a great comparison. He wanted special treatment and the Bulls gave it. In return he gave them a 72 win season on the GOAT NBA team. Teams too caught up in cliches about attitude often forget that winning is the bottom line. Winning is 'always' the team concept and when you're playing at the highest for all the marbles its all any winning teams care about.

Rodman worked on Chicago because Jordan cared about nothing, absolutly nothing, besides winning. He was willing to give Rodman special status. I guarentee you Jordan would have cleaned his toilets if it meant the Worm was going to pull down 20 boards that night. Except thats not happenomg here because , faults that he may have, came to a team/coach with a few other bottom lines. Instead they're scapegoating him as "The Answer" to the question "why are you underachiveing."

But its actually not too late. If the team gets mentally together and approaches Iverson with a direct plan. If they say we need them to shut up our doubters. AI doubters and Pistons doubters. If they say Allen Iverson: you can be the difference between us wining and losing. We can come together then they could still make the season work if you're up for it. No doubt Iverson's treatments will be magical and his back will heal overnight. Its not likely though as egos are probably too big to admit a mistake but the Pistons just don't have enough to get past the first or second round. Possible but a crazy long shot.

Anythings better then just giving up in my books. It says silently that the Pistons are not trying to win this year and says it from the top down. Many can't recover from a move like this. The suns could never recover from the forced style change the Shaq trade brought and the knowledge the current players had that their management had given up on them. Didn't believe in them. Now Iverson has quit on the Pistons and I fear its the beginning of the end for one of the present era's best and unheralded teams.