Screw The Suits, Little Man From Another Place, I've Found My Excuse To Put You In My Blog, You're A Star, That Gum You Like Is Going To Come Back Into Style, It IS!!!
Is that organ music I hear and cotton candy I smell in the land of Full Court Pest? I think so... or it could be the elephants. One thing I do know; I like David Lynch. Thus, I like things that are Lynchian. Starting off a sports blog post with a reference to Lynchianism may seem odd at first, until you realize that all things Lynch start off nonsensical eventually arriving at some point of clarity if only to make an obscure reference to something that should be less obscure. I guess what I'm trying to say is that TV suits sucked in 1992 when they ruined and canceled an unresolved Twin Peaks just as much as they sucked in 2005 when they canceled the kick ass show it influenced, Carnivale, which was also left unresolved. In reality, it just gives me context to make my obscure reference in the picture on the right. Umm.........
Welcome to Carnival(e) Of The NBA #65!
My favorite contribution is this diddy from Both Teams Played Hard comparing the NBA's progression to Chex Mix and other chips. There be wisdom in dem dere fried potatoes.
Side Note: I threw BTPH on my twitter account since I liked his article so much and saw the following two posts one after the other.
BothTeamsPlayedRT @sportsguy33 Did you ever notice that the Zoltar machine in Big looks like Hedu Turkoglu? sportsguy33Did you ever notice that the Zoltar machine in "Big" looks like Hedu Turkoglu?
No! Don't Do It Young Tom Hanks... Sure, You'll Be Big And Still Score Like A Guard, But You'll Play D Like, Uh, An Unpluggd Zoltor Machine, AKA Hedo Turkaloo
Low class Sports Guy. Boo Hiss! Am I to believe your columns are just a culmination of fan mail with added quotation marks??? If Simmons is not going to give credit (or at least traffic) for ripping Both Teams Played Hard off for his hilarious insight, Full Court Pest will with it's second carnival(e) themed picture.
Time to pick up the pace.
NBA Database has a decent evaluation of Joe Johnson: The Most Under Rated NBA Player. It still makes me wonder how you let Joe Johnson leave your 62 win team, or trade him for the worst NBA team's bench players. We all hate Sarver for his NBA ownership evil, yes? Its difficult for me to tell who I'd punch first or enjoy punching more: him or Clay Bennet.
Sports Agent Blog has a piece explaining Why Did Jason Thompson Pick Andre Buck. Interesting Blog with an insider feel that's just leaking out highly relevant information no one ever talks about. I checked out their First Round Break Down Of The Draft and was fascinated to get a view of the sports agent world. Just seeing who's repping who is eye opening when you consider David Falk had just as big an impact on Jordan's career as David Stern and Nike did. Great blog.
Basketball Fiend brings us The Fraternity Of Clutch comparing frat life with the best closers in the game. His ideas seem based on free thinking thoughts. ;)
explaining why playing in Europe may be why no-one knows who Joe Ingles is. The more coverage of Europe the better IMHO. Theres something real happening in Euroleague and I love it.
If You Don't Like This, Here Is Something You Might Like WNBA.COM
Retro Sports Talk has two great submissions showing how 2009 NBA CLASS REMINDS OF DRAFTS OF THE PAST. If you like Pete Maravich, as anyone who's a basketball fan absolutely should, then you'll also enjoy RICKY RUBIO BRINGS BACK MEMORIES OF THE PISTOL if only to watch the clips of the two and see how remarkably similar their games are. Its not just the white skin and big hair!
Draft time is always tough for Celtics fans. They missed KD and TD, but nothing is worse then Remembering Len Bias like they have to do at Celtics Green every year. Dude had sick talent and would have won multiple rings with Bird in Beantown. Cocaine is, indeed, a hell of a drug. Great clips of Bias's I'm Ready For The Pros game. If you're too young to remember Len Bias in college you should check it out. They've also got a Summer League Update.
On a more positive Celtic note, Red's Army is trying to make lemonade out of the Rondo situation. He contends that Dannys Not Trying To Trade Rondo Hes Trying To Keep Him. Red's soldier might have a pretty good point there. I love Rondo's game too and hope it works out.
In the fantasy hibernation period of the year Give Me The Rock is creating a Fantasy HOF that you can vote on. On the ballots right now are class of 2008 players: Chris Webber and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Remember that the best pros are not the best fantasy plyaers... I like this idea lots. Yet another way to rank my guys. Your host is coming off a fantasy championship... thanks Dwight!!!
Life of a Knicks Fan submitted a post quadfecta. To Shoot or not to Shoot? deals with the perils of building your team around career chuckers and what you DO need to win. Follows it with the Knicks 2009 Draft Preview (not so easy when Stern isn't fixing the draft for you, is it knicks fans? j/k :) ). Next, The many faces of Kobe Bryant. This may or may not be due to bitterness due to the defection of ex-knicks fan, present 'Kobe Superfan', Spike Lee. (again, a joke :) ) Lastly he completes the quadfecta with Amare Vs. Bosh: The Battle Of The Not-Quite Super Stars. Lets add in Zach Randolph. Why does every forward in the league compare themselves to Bosh if they're all better then him, and then say 'go ask Chris Bosh, he'll say the same thing'? I'd like to know this as well. E for effort and good posts Knicks Fan.
A few things that are a litle dated, but I'll throw in anyway.
Not That There's Anything Wrong With That, Terrence, But Barbie And Much More So Ken, Are Gay On Many Levels
Da Bears And Bulls did a Bulls Mock Draft 2009. It has a vid of NBA clip ready, Terrence Williams which is worth the price of admission alone. I have no idea whats going on in his head, but I like it (if only for selfish reasons), and look forward to being entertained by this guy for years to come.
Jojo adds his two cents to say Thank you Vinnie DelNegro for the Bulls run. Myself, I'll say thank you Derick Rose for being Derick Rose. :) Love the split pic of the Noah dunk on Pierce. Dunk of the playoffs. Best since Davis/Kirelenko especially given the context. Massive.
Like 'what ifs' 'what ands' or 'what buts'? GeekMBA360 asks What if you have five 17-year old Kobe Bryants on your team? but I get the feeling this is a business guy promoting his blog, not a hoop fan, so he'll go to the end of the post with the rest of his ilk. Thats why its down here. Some other business blog posted Business Skills Of A Basketball Coach.html. Both are actually talking about hoop so yea, they can have a backlink but this is for NBA blogs not people masquerading as them to make money.
For Winning A Title Without Shaq, Kobe Gets A Cool Picture On Full Court Pest!
Just a note... this is not a typical Kobe article. Its about a predominantly unbiased stat trying to avoid the pitfalls of Kobe discussion. After the stat more subjective matters are discussed but its more or less separate from the stat which is homer/hater neutral. Took a long time, it's unique, no one has seen it before, so I hope you check it ot if not my own thoughts. :)
Its now the cusp of game 5, NBA finals. The Lake Show is up 3-1. They'll close out and Kobe wins a title without Shaq. The NBA and it's fans are going to be subjugated to the largest purple and gold PR in history. Its going to top Kings/Blazers. It will stymie the Isiah injury pooh pooh. It will dwarf the 2006 MVP injustice outcry.
I don't want to enter the hate zone. I don't have an agenda against him that prevents me from being fair. I'm a bigger fan of other players but if the guy does well, I'll say it. He's played great in the finals and at the end of the Denver series. He did so why deny it? His fans are going to go off the deep end in full force. Know what? After sticking with the guy and defending all the criticism they deserve a day in the sun and Kobe deserves this ring. Congratulations Kobe Klan, talk it up. Examples?
Every claim will be amplified and expounded on Ad Nauseam and doubters silenced. Kobe is the greatest of all time, top 3 or top 10. The best perimeter/mid-range shooter ever.
Kobe Got Shaq His! Or... Is That How It Really Went Down?
Shaq/Kobe history will be rewritten with such vigor that time will fold on itself and reverse. Shaq needed Kobe. They shared the team. Kobe was the better player and Shaq rode his coat tails. The best scorer, offensive player and leader since Jordan. Maybe better. Much better! Jordan just had a better team, Right? You ARE going to hear it if you're a fan.
I say: no so fast. Kudos... but titles count for too much to me. Kobe's career is top 3 because he wins 4 games and top 30 if he loses 4 games depending on who is talking. Both love/hate statements are misguided. I've got enough self-confidence that I won't be swayed by 4 out of 1000 games no matter what the stage.
In my opinion during those other games he inflates his scoring numbers by not passing. He wanted to be all time and thought scoring was his ticket. This I saw with my eyes. I was informed this is merely my subjective bias fueled by my hatred of all things Bean (though I love Jellybean(s)?!?!). To respond I made a simple stat that effectively removed a great deal of personal bias in evaluating the trend.
I took special care to not look at Kobe's numbers until the moment I crunched his data. No accusations of proving bias opinions 'with stats' as is so commonly suggested. I did not expect the results to be as significant as they were. I expected the same trends expressed volumetricly across all players.
The Premise
The only stat I considered was one I knew. In 2006 Kobe let his dimes drop from 6.0 to 4.5 and scored 35 PPG. 1.5 dimes for ~10 PPG. Good trade, right? My opinion: padding scoring by not passing. Instead of great games at a higher level he stops passing and focuses himself on overwhelming the most visible category. Result: a perception of elite play disguising imbalanced offense generating increased sportscenter highlights and attention for MVPs. That's the premise. It seems logical but a 1.5 drop is weak evidence I was informed, and I agreed. So I made...
The Stat
Meaningful Stats Don't Have To Look Like This... Do They?
Take +40 point games over a given period, subtract the average assists and from the average assists of games scoring X or more points. This gives us play making trends with respect to scoring output. The result we can call scoring/assist differential. So...
scoring/assis diff= average assists (all games) - average assists (scoring > x) and took data at 5 point increments.
Like a scoring average this stat indicates the highs and lows of play making at different levels of scoring giving general relative output. A very simple comparison of a player scoring X points to their average play.
The Numbers:
Without further adieu, lets examine Kobe and players who are prolific enough as scorers to compare him to.
Kobe: The Man
FG%
0.46
>40 FG%
0.51
dimes
5.19
>= points
dimes
differential
40
3.9
-1.29
45
3.5
-1.69
50
3
-2.19
55
2.6
-2.59
Okay, so lets compare Kobe to his peers
Lebron James
FG%; 47%
>40 FG%; 57%
dimes; 6.69
>= points
dimes
differential
40
7.15
0.46
45
7.26
0.57
50
8.5
1.81
55
7
0.31
MJ, 23 Ways To Make You Pay
FG%
0.51
>40 FG%
0.59
dimes
5.38
>= points
dimes
differential
40
5.08
-0.3
45
4.74
-0.65
50
4.53
-0.86
55
3.88
-1.5
Dwayne Wade
FG%; 48%
>40 FG%; 58%
dimes; 6.66
>= points
dimes
differential
40
7.25
0.59
45
8.14
1.48
50
6
-0.66 *
55
4
-2.66 *
Gilbert Arenas In Washington
FG%
0.43
>40 FG%
0.53
dimes
5.66
>= points
dimes
differential
40
5.44
-0.22
45
5.72
0.06
50
5.66
0
55
8
+2.44*
AI In Philly
FG%
0.42
>40 FG%
0.51
dimes
6.12
>= points
dimes
differential
40
6.07
-0.05
45
5.93
-0.18
50
5.3
-0.82
55
6
-0.12 *
Dominique Wilkins In Atlanta
FG%
0.47
>40 FG%
0.58
dimes
2.65
>= points
dimes
differential
40
3.3
0.65
45
3.58
0.93
50
3
0.35
55
4
+1.35 *
* (This is a very small sample size, more on this later)
Again, I did not even take a cursory look at people's stats beforehand. I've seen Kobe play and thought he wouldn't look great in them, but still shocked to see the disparity. I figured everyone's stats would decrease when they scored more points.
Conclusions
Based on these stats, I think its fair to say:
1. Kobe has a crap load of high scoring games in only a few seasons. He can really put it in the hoop at high volumes.
2. His scoring gets over-rated: shares the lowest shooting percentage with Iverson for > 40 point games and by far raises his shooting % at the lowest rate, almost half that of everyone else including Iverson.
3. Kobe seem to be the most selfish. Of all time? No hate, but maybe. He's a great scorer but appears to pad his stats by ignoring his teammates as his dimes continuously drop as points increase. I have two ideas about how he goes off on scoring binges based on watching.
Kobe pre-meditates big nights and intentionally focuses his energy on scoring. Such a game is his 61 with 3 dimes and 0 boards vs NYK. Before Shaq: 31 40+ point games. 4 50+. The next season he had 10 40+ point games, a third of his 8 year output despite missing almost 20 games coupled with an 8 year assist low (after career), and a 9 year rebounding low. The only season he blocked less shots was his rookie year.
By the 05/06 season Kobe realized W stats would be harder to get and went after the record books instead to vindicate Shaq's departure. Nearly tripled his previous season's 40+ games, took 7 more shots per and produced nearly the same # of 40 point nights as his first 8 seasons did. (I think he pushed too hard and wore himself out because since he's never attacked the rim the same way at all, but I digress)
When Kobe hits shots early it appears he thinks of sports center and forgets his team exists
For Younger Fans Questioning 'Nique's Inclusion On This List, Click The Triangle Shaped 'Answer Button' Above This Caption
beyond facilitating his scoring. In his famous Dallas game he hit all 7 first quarter shots, then jacked a much lower percentage for two quarters getting 0 assists for the game. With Dallas having an off night and his team up 30 Kobe put up 14 shots in the last 5 minutes of the third quarter to further pad his stats.
4. Kobe's got more 40 point games then everyone on this list except Jordan, Iverson and 'Nique. Sensible: the others have only been pros for that many seasons. Kobe had 69 40 point games after Shaq and 27 with Shaq in half the seasons.
He tries to score, more then anyone listed and possibly ever. Kobe is known for and considered the best scorer for his large number of 40/50/60 point games. Arenas only has one 60 point game. Wade 0. Lebron 0. Kobe has 5? Why? They don't alter play to focus on individual scoring. Wade gets his points by approaching a 10 point increase in field goal percentage and gets even more dimes then normal.
They elevate play across all categories. Kobe zones in on one highly visible category while sacrificing others. When scoring 45 points, Wade averages 1.48 assists more then normal. At 8 APG, Assuming 50% pass/assist completion (very high) you have to pass to a teammate in a position to score more then 14 times for those assists; likely its more. Lebron averages a full 2 assists more when scoring 50 points. In contrast, when Kobe's hot and passes you the ball, to have multiple 0 assist games... he expects it back. If Lebron or Wade were forcing those extra shots their points would be higher. So.... 5. How many more 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90+ point games would these other guys on this list have if they played Kobe ball? I'm going to say that if Jordan had 0 dimes instead of 6, and 3 boards, not 18 when he scored 69 points it would only be a questions of how close he sat to Wilt.
Lebron Playing Kobe-Ball For 2 Minutes, People Knock Lebron For Not Having A 60 Point Game? What?
If he passes 12 times to get 6 dimes and hit 62%, he's at something like 85-86 points. If he was not crashing the boards and was playing the worst defensive team in the league (Raptors) instead of great defensive team, I think Jordan break's Wilt's record.
The other guys go way up too. Wade's 48/12 pushes 60 as does 50/9, 48/11 and even 46/10. So does Iverson's 58/6, 60/6 goes up, maybe to 70, and 51/6. Arenas 60/8 pushes 70 for sure, and 51/5, 47/8 and 54/4 all push 60.
Lebron is the best scorer of this decade if he played this way. 56/5, 55/9, 52/11, 52/7/, 51/9, 51/9, 51/8, 50/9 and 50/10 all go upwards of 60 points. Consider 2009 is the first time he's even come close to his prime. Its not even close.
6. The only similar progression on the list is MJ. He also only passes kobe's differential for all 40+ games (1.22) when scoring over 55 points, ie: 9 of his 158 40 points games. In those 9 games he has a 10 dimes at 57 pts, 6 at 59 pts and 6 at 69 pts (not to mention 18 herculean rebounds!). From 50-55 he breaks 5 dimes 9 times out of 20.
Kobe has 1 8 dime game at 53. 1 8 dime game at 50. A 5 and 6 at 46. And 10 at 45. That's all his +5 dime games when scoring 45 or more. I don't have to get into the slower pace, tougher defenses or the rule changes softening perimeter defenses either. All things being equal, and they were not, its still not close.
To be fair, MJ was selfish himself. Very granted. By virtue of shooting 60% in 158 40+ point games and being Michael Freaking Jordan, unquestioned GOAT, he gets a deserved pass for most games. Him attacking a defense was often a better shot then a teammate's open jumper... while he chucked up his own 45 attempt losses he still was not nearly as selfish as Bryant.
The irony: Kobe was trying to pass him. He told Tracey McGrady when he was 19 that he was already a better player then Michael. Once Shaq left he made it his mission to try and get as close to Jordan as possible and unfortunately he, like so many others, over valued scoring and that's what will probably keep him from the truly rarified air.
The Triangle
A reader brought up the point that the triangle kills assist stats. Its seen in Jordan's stats as well proving it. Lebron/Wade et al look better because their team's offenses provide them better passing opportunities.
Its not really an assist stat though. By using average assists as a basis of comparison the sample size accounts for random fluctuation of an offense. By comparing a player in high scoring games to themselves on average we are no longer considering assists: just the change in assists. Kobe averaging 1 could kill Arenas averaging 50 in this stat. 'Nique fares great despite averaging the lowest assists of everyone as its the same offense/teammates at 30 points as 50.
I think its a question of maturity. MJ's early years were famously his selfish years. After losing to the pistons repeatedly he realized it hurt his team and changed his game to win. The change was learning how to use his scoring to help make his teammates better. Observe (with a little credit where Zen credit is due :) ):
Triangle MJ
FG%
0.5
>40 FG%
0.583
dimes
5.07 *
>= points
dimes
differential
40
4.73
-0.34
45
4.26
-0.81
50
4.54
-0.53
55
4.75
-0.32
* Note: only a .2 assist drop in the triangle
Dimes drop a bit at 45, then bounce back to 8 time's kobe's differential. Better decisions feed a superior FG%. I'm not Smushing (so to speak) it in Kobe's face about MJ. He's the only comparison for the triangle. In any offense, good decisions create easy baskets for all, keep FG%'s high. If it is maturity, it does make sense. Jordan had to play years figuring out how to balance his game. Kobe realized how hard carrying a club was once Shaq left and had to start his learning process over.
Explainable, yet one of the following has to be true.
1. After playing for years in the triangle, Kobe did not understand the offense or how to use it to play well as an individual and teammate simultaneously.
2. Kobe's career is that of a selfish player who ignores his teammates when playing his best to maximize his scoring visibility.
Comprehensive Shot Of Everyone In Staples Center Kobe Bryant Has Thoughts About Not Named Kobe Bryant Once He Gets Going
Is this fair? I can't come up with other explanations. If anyone would like to make a better one I'll gladly add it to the list (comment below).
An aptly labeled ball hog, Allen Iverson, kills him with a negligible differential at all levels of scoring. Lebron and Wade got it it in year 1, probably from watching Jordan/Kobe's struggles the same way Magic/Bird watched Chamberlain.
Use the attention to break the defense. Then score from the mismatch, whoever has it, before they recover. Its team basketball. When you play it, good things happen. Try to win yourself and a better team beats you. Russell beat Wilt. Isiah beat Jordan. And KG beat Kobe. Lebron/Wade/et al simply play team basketball (in a team sport ) at a much higher level.
The Comp
I earlier claimed Kobe pre-meditated big scoring nights contradicting the Laker truth that high Kobe scoring was the only way they could win. Challenging this is sure to draw the scorn of Kobe's legions of fans. You'll get a response something like this: (an actual response... actually)
Bryant has scored 40 or more points in 96 regular season games, third on the all-time career list behind Wilt Chamberlain (271) and Michael Jordan (173). The Lakers posted a 65-31 record in those games, a .677 winning percentage that is better than their overall winning percentage (.656) during Bryant's career. Bryant had 27 of those 40 point games in 2005-06, when he led the NBA in scoring with a 35.4 ppg average that ranks eighth on the single season scoring list; the Lakers went 45-37 overall that year (.549) but they went 18-9 (.667) in his 40 point games.
Bryant has scored at least 50 points in a game 23 times; he ranks third on that all-time career list as well, again trailing only Chamberlain (118) and Jordan (31). The Lakers went 16-7 in Bryant's 50 point games, which is an even better winning percentage (.696) than they posted in the games in which he scored 40-49 points. Bryant's only 50 point game this season happened when he set a Madison Square Garden record with 61 points in a 126-117 victory.
Sounds convincing.... look closer.
Who are these high totals against? If you believe this scoring to win theory, you may be surprised. I'm going to call it the 27, 32, 60, 32, 22, 33, 23, 37, 22, 52 club. Those are the opponent season win totals of Kobe's top 10 scoring games. 1.5 quality wins vs Dallas and Houston... the only .450+ teams. 1.5 as Vs. Houston he scored 53 twice in the same season going 1-1. LA was supposed to win the others. Its really a revision to say Kobe was shooting "because its the only way they could win" instead of padding his stats.
Quality wins, top 10 scoring. 1.5 W's .5 L.
Win 1: 62 vs Dallas they won because Dallas shot 37% and 13% from 3. Kobe's 10 3 attempts are 3 more then anyone's regular attempts with 0 assists. He reportedly told teammates he was going for 50 before the game regardless. Kobe jacked up 14 shots (almost half of his 31) with his team up 30 in the 3'rd quarter. They apparently didn't need 62 to win at all.
Win .5: 53 vs Houston HOU just started the season without T-Mac still depended on him for everything. The game still went to OT. Credit Kobe 8 dimes and 10 boards however he still took 38 shots on 44% though the other starters shot 43%, 46%, 50% and 57%.
Loss .5: 53 vs Houston now with a full lineup. Despite only 2 assists from Kobe, Smush Parker shot 58%, Kwame Brown 63% and Vladimir Radmonovic 50%. Odom shot 33% but had 17 rebounds. Kobe shot 43% and 33% from 3, on 44 shots, the sixth highest shot total in 25 years by any player. Kobe's 9 3's were more then any players FGA's in the whole game.
Now, if Kobe is shooting to win, lets look at losses in the top 10 too.
Loss 1: Kobe's 6'th highest scoring game the Lakers lose to the 33 win Bobcats. Kobe took 45 shots, the 5'th highest attempts in 25 years to beat a team featuring Adam Morrison shooting 1-15 (6.7%) and Raymond Felton shooting 7/24 (29%).
Loss 2: In Kobe's 7'th highest scoring game the Lakers posted a loss to the the 22 win Grizzles. Granted the Lakers didn't have Kwame Brown, but it was because the Grizzles played without Pau Gasol due to the ironic most lopsided trade ever for Kwame. Their second option was Darko Milicic and it gets worse from there.
Why do the Lakers need Kobe to take record shots to lose to craptacular teams? I argue the losses are due to the shooting and the wins due to the average 33 games won between the teams. I argue Kobe should get credit for big scoring sometimes, but poor offense when he plays like this.
I Bring You!!! THE KOBE KILLERS! Umm... It's Really Them... Honest
Losing to a 33 win expansion team that's given 15/29 shots to guys shooting 6.7%/29% and named Adam Morrison/Raymond Felton respectively has to go down as shameful when you are supposedly the L's best player. My head spins. 6 players on his team shot 50% or better? Kobe took more 3's then any player on his team took shots. Is that worse then losing a major pride game, at home, to a team who's best player you just stole and switched with a role player. I'm not sure, but I think I know how it happened.
From 05-09, Kobe had a solitary triple double. Plenty when Shaq was there. With 08's stacked team he got 0 and only got one before the playoffs in 09. 05-09. Lebron. 25 triple doubles. Crappy teammates, check. This is why Bron is considered better. The GM who traded a great center in his prime for Kobe said as much. Wade has 3 even though he spent 2/4 seasons injured or playing hurt.
Kobe's Help
The oft cited reason for Kobe's team suckage. Was it his teammates who damaged his career? Or was it a failed opportunity to silence critics.
If Kobe led Kwame to 55 wins he gets back to back MVPs. Maybe a West finals appearance? I, and every basketball fan, accept that he's the best since Jordan because it would be obvious as that team has no business winning that much. Kobe: the only other scoring guard to win without a dominant center. Athletically? Way beyond Steve Nash. But he played losing ball over 3 seasons, people saw through the high scoring and Nash, not KB24, got two MVP awards.
Kobe's help follow a trend. They get there. They peak. Then decline in their primes. If your uber-talented star didn't have 1 triple double in 4 years of play while you took all the blame for every loss and the star took all the glory for wins wouldn't you get discouraged? Lets take a look at his talent and their career arcs. They supposedly have 0 talent, however:
Jordan Farmar - Played huge in college where he was absolutely a good player, then he had a solid rookie season. Solid playoffs. I know he was good from watching in college. Made strides last year. Before the last finals and this season Farmar a stated reason the Lakers would win. Fisher out, Farmar in. Instead all his per 36 numbers dropped and he's gone from shooting over 70% from the line to shooting in the 50's.
Vladimir Radmonovic - shot 44% from 3 before they traded him. 44% is more then acceptable for a shooter role player type. He had value to the team too. 13/6.6/44% per 36 is very decent production for 20 minutes. He's averaging a career high in scoring per 36 minutes on 2 more shots/game with Charlotte now. His frustration was evident upon his arrival in Charlotte when he said:
"it was also frustrating not knowing when and how I'd play... Phil's system, great as it is, doesn't give a role player much opportunity... for Kobe Bryant, it's great."
Ronny Turiaf - good enough to get GSW's mid-level exception and continually improve. Often named one of the most under rated players in the NBA. 12/8.6/54% is awesome production for a guy getting 15-20 MPG and brought mad energy. His production declined after that peak though and they let him go. On GSW his FG% is back over 50% now.
Brian Cook - Good enough to be the key piece in a deal that got them Ariza, who's a great player. He was also good enough as a rookie to get rotation minutes on the HOF filled laker team that went to the finals. Then his game declined each year till they traded him. He was not able to settle into the Magic before Nelson went down and he was included in the trade for Rafer Alston before the deadline.
Sasha Vujacic - What more do you want? In 07-08 he shot 45%, 44% from 3, scored 17 ppg per 36 minutes and is positively a very above average defender. A full court pest if you will. Improved every year till the finals. Maybe if Kobe wasn't calling him She She 'The Machine' to the national media, calling him his little brother (which he hated himself viaShaq) and glaring at him every 3'rd play he would not have lost his confidence? You know he shot 92% from the line, right? As a role player, Vujacic was very good.
Luke Walton - Great, above average passer. Always has been. Can change a game without taking a shot. 12/5.5/5.5 45% per 36 minutes are very, very good numbers for a guy coming off your bench 20-25 minutes a game. Good enough to be rotation player on championship team (tomorrow).
Andrew Bynum - Raw out of high school but always had potential. His stats/36 minutes have always been great. He got derailed by injuries but I'm sure his star player hating on him didn't help start his career or his second dispirited come back great starts and it was seen in the results. When your star injures your knee and gets up with a pissed off look on his face, says nothing, and walks away its not exactly encouragnig either, but perhaps that looked worse then it was. Kobe did say Bynum was why they lost to Boston and the key to their title, that he changed their identidy as a team, with Pau Gasol. That alone indicates he's good, if quite raw.
Lamar Odom - I don't think needs to be said. He's a top tier player and one of the most versatile years. All-star calibre who didn't make it in due to a loaded west at his position. Match up nightmare and a top complementary glue guy. Odom as #2 or #3 can win games by himself with or without scoring points. He fills in any gap your team has on a given night. What more do you want?
Caron Butler - All star caliber player. LA fans don't mention that Odom/Butler were on Kobe's team at the same time. The previous year Dwayne Wade, as a rookie, and with Caron/Lamar as his second/third best players almost got them to the east finals. I repeat, he was a rookie. Kobe's team won 33 games. There's a variety of reasons but one of them has got to be Kobe and his change in style. None of them excuse 34 wins with 3 all star caliber players.
And now a special note on Kwame Brown and Smush Parker. The two guys who get the most heat for Kobe not winning more.
Kwame Brown - In Washington he had a 11/7.5/46% year. In 06 he improved playing less minutes, shot 52% overall, > 60% in 11 of his last 20 games, averaged 8 boards and had a large string of +10 board games. He's a big reason they took PHX to 7 and carried them in multiple games. One game he had a 19/6/2 blk 60% FG game that was full of potential. Overall 13 pts, 6.5 brds. 56% FG. 70% if you exclude two bad games you expect from raw players. One bad game they won and the other was the game 7 team collapse, including Kobe. Even in 07 he put up 11/8 per 36 minutes on 59% shooting. No Shaq but he wasn't giving you nothing. Its a myth.
Smush Had Heaps And Leaps Of Ability
Smush Parker - Great athlete. The guy had ups. All young prospects have downs, but man he could get up. Undeniable potential and shot a very respectable 44% in LA. No superstar but a very decent role player with heaps of potential. By year 2 his game started slipping and you could watch confidence peel off of him by the game. If Kobe spent more time building Smush up what could he have been? Parker has publicly stated that Kobe made his time on LA miserable despite him putting up good numbers.
The point is, you're not supposed to be given all-star teams. As the best player you and your coach are supposed to build those teams around you. Kobe's player's seem to fall off in the same pattern. The difference could hae made is instead of being a malcontent demeaning those without your talent on the radio, blaming them for losses and demanding trades you take those lemon players and make lemonade. Were they real lemons?
Can't help but say it... Jordan had this kid. Crazy athletic. Weak skills. Points all off dunks. His name was Scotti Pippen. Jordan turned him into the best all around player ever. With Sam Vincent as his #2, Pippen/Grant/Paxon playing 15-22 mpg, and Charles Oakley as his #3, Jordan won 50 games. They were contenders for the title and went out 4-1 to the champion Pistons. He didn't blame his teammates or destroy their confidence but pushed them to improve every year.
They made the east finals the next year. Went out 4-2 to the pistons. Got back the next year. Went out 4-3 to the Pistons. Then came back better and went on to win 3 straight. All with the same core of players who were not really good just a few years before. The similarities are striking. I think blaming Smush and Kwame for the team's failures is slightly valid but mostly weak. The fact that Kobe did it publicly and demand a trade is just cowardly. You're the star, accept the pressure or it will crack the lesser player's confidence. It did.
Why? Everyone has scrubs. Jordan had Scott Williams, Stacy King, Luc Longly, Brad Sellers, Will Purdue, Sam Vincent and others. Bron, Wade, Arenas and Iverson all played with crappy players. They all had a few scrubs who kept improving and none of them blamed the worst players on the team for losses. I won't say Smush could have been Scotti Pippen, but he could have been more then he became. He showed potential to be much more.
Something happened. Its a footnote now. LA fans will say I'm hate driven to suggest these players were anything but college scrub level. They will neglect to mention this. After a botched trade with Chicago Kobe realized his value was so high any trade for him would land him on the same kind of crappy team. Kobe realized this was his team, could not handle the scrutiny of another .500 season and played to win. His scoring went back down under 30. Assists and boards went back up. Kobe played team ball and these no talents were 15 games over .500 before Pau Gasol even arrived.
I Tried To Find A Pic Of The Chump Scotti Backed Up, But The Only Bulls Pic Was Of Pippen Throwing Down: True Story
Kobe's fans will refuse to admit that his help was anythign but terrible. I think its a perception they can't help though. The NBA culture in LA is lucky. Their city is incredibly attractive to players, talent wants to play there so they got used to being stacked long ago. In their eyes a normal team appears unfair to their stars. I didn't say star, because LA has had 2-3 or more legitimate stars for nearly it's entire history. Kobe has always had at least one or two other top tier players and solid role players around him.
Kobe Bryant - You've got to add Kobe. Love or hate him, he's a fantastic talent and has to count as more then one guy. Kobe can win any game all by himself. Subtle difference: I think he tries to win every game by himself. Result: 33, 45 and 42 win seasons. He had good complementary players, championship level role players, the best coach in history. 3 games under .500 over 3 seasons result.
Miami started a rookie poin and a sleepwalking Marion so bad they traded him for Jermaine O'Neal's corpse AND worse contract before a playoff run. Their next best player was Michael Beasley who they could only justify giving 24 MPG. Even Shaun Livingston attempting a come back got 10 MPG on that team. The previous year they won 15 games still with Shaq and a host of decentish players. Wade took them to the playoffs in a single handed 28 game win improvement.
Which Of These Superstars Has The Worst Finals Supporting Cast Of All time?
Lebron, took a horrible team to 50 wins and the NBA finals. They started Eric Snow's corpse, Larry Hughes, past prime Ilglauskus, Drew Gooden (who grew a beard on the back of his head, consider that) and Varajeo when he was putting the role in role player. His closing partner: Boobie Gibson who's now riding the pine. Only one player could manage over 30 MPG, Hughes, and he stunk it up shooting 40% and 33% from 3 for less then 15 PPG. They famously depended on Donyell Marshall 3's to win big games they were so bad. 50 wins/finals.
When they were down he stated "A Lebron James Team Is Never Desperate." That's building a winner because the process ultimately starts from losing with who you have. To make omelets you have to break eggs. To build teams you've got to got to lose some games on the backs of your teammates while taking heat on your shoulders.
I don't buy the no help card. Not all-stars or championship help, but not no-stars or losing team over 3 seasons help by any means. Not when you're as talented as Kobe Bryant.
What Could Have Been
Wade just had career highs in scoring, assists, blocks and steals and was .7 behind in boards on a far worse team. Everyone on Miami improved. Watch out for next year. With developed players LA wins that title vs rival Boston. They win this year. They probably beat PHX one year, maybe even beat the clippers in a historic LA only series and make the conference finals. That one guy totally carrying his team performance is whats sorely lacking from Kobe's resume. Its not winning without Shaq thats eluded him, its winning like MJ. While he's won, and will win again, he's never been able to elevate a team above par for that team's ability.
This is what could have been. 5 or 6 titles with Shaq if he waited to be handed the team a la TD/Robinson. LA then has a few years to build players around a winning program and Kobe probably ends with 6-8 titles, half of them finals MVPs. Instead he's got an 81 point game to hang his hat on. One of the greatest individual performances. And I'll rank it with Wilts. But both guys were intentionally setting records. Wilt did it vs 6.5 foot front line players. Kobe did it jacking shots up 20 with 43 seconds left vs the 6'(no D)" Mo Pete of the last place Raptors. I think both games go down as one of the most displays of selfishness over prowess.
PS: Kobe Just Found The Mouthwash And Deserves One More Cool Pic Of Him For Winning Without Shaq. I'm Cool With It, He Won With An Even Balance Of Scoring And Passing, I Feel Almost Vindicated Myself, But LA Fans Be Fair To The Haters, This Could Have Been A Mirror Image, And Its Not
I feel bad for Kobe honestly. He wanted to pass Jordan, a daunting task. It motivated his training but mostly his scoring. At 19 Kobe told t-mac that he was already better than Jordan, he was going to crush him. Jordan was a scorer. It had to be done. His obsession with scoring that's going to hurt his comparison. People will always say he's a truly spectacular scorer, but... that's it!
Even with Shaqless rings there are buts. But he was best as a side kick. But he shot his favored team out of the finals on a 39 point losing effort. But nothin. There are no buts for Jordan. Magic. Bird. Isiah. Kareem. West. Soon enough, Lebron. They dominated to win and lose. They accomplished everything they set out to do and carried mediocre players to success and successful players to greatness... but they always carried them and were never 'held back' by them if you get my drift.
I truly relate and feel for the guy. No one actually enjoys seeing people who clearly put in effort lose, or I don't. The guy is kind of alone because no one else is like him. Kobe set out to be the best ever and win by totally carrying a team on his back like all those others he felt challenged by... wait for it... but, 09 title or not... he failed.
Apparently Lebron was not so silent after all. Full Court Pest took the liberty of hiring the world's foremost body language expert to decipher exactly what Lebron was getting at after Orlando's game 6 win. He was kind enough to take some time away from his CIA post to give us this world exclusive. Enjoy.
"Gratz Magic, you won, but you're not the better team. I destroyed you and everyone in the world knows it. One, two or three open shots falling that normally fall for us and you don't make the finals. So I'm not taking anything away, but I'm not walking over and saying gratz as if you're the better team.I don't care that the media is going to say you are, you're not and we both know you're damned lucky to make it past us.
As for you guys in the media, I'm not going to go up there and listen to questions about why were not good enough and aren't going to the finals. My teammates didn't hit open shots. My front office chose to save money when they could have traded Wally's contract for a true star in a buyer's market and gotten him back when he agreed to a buy out to save that team more money anyway. Which would have happened because his trade was a money dump and Wally stated he did not want to leave in no uncertain terms. We could have gotten an extra star for free, and instead we got Joe Smith for extra.
If James Sprung For Something Better Then Digital Cameras When Buying For Multimillion Dollar Athletes, Maybe They Would Have Played Better
Lastly I'm not going to slag my teammates and pretend like its really their fault that a live by the three team happened to live, cuz while the magic won, they're going to get killed in a finals match up that my team would have killed in. Even though everyone will say the Magic were the better team because that's what Stern and ABC and ESPN and TNT and the sports writers and the owners and everyone who makes money off this game wants. I don't care to say it and dance for the man. I don't believe it and I don't need it. I have my pride.
They need to say that so they make as much money as possible. I'm a player. And players don't give a damn what you say. We make our money under contract and don't need to create a false sense of accomplishment for the teams at the end to sell the finals. I don't have to recoup the millions Nike wasted from the ads pitting me and Kobe against each other. The millions they paid me to do them are in my bank account right now. I'll use the money I made in the fraction of a second I coughed on set to pay the 25k fine. They were ripping off Jimmy Kimmel and Adam Carrola's Crank Yankers anyway.
Hedo Turkoglu In His Best Possible Defensive Stance vs Lebron... Or Anyone
If we played this series out 10 more times my team wins 10 times. Its the secret everyone knows but won't say. No, I'm not going to your press conference to talk about other people. I know no one has questions about me because I made sure all Lebron related questions were answered fully, in triplicate, on the court. Did you see what I did to their defense? I'm not going to let you see me defeated and make a spectacle out of Lebron James failing like you did to Dirk in 97, Kobe in 98 and Britney Spears 'come back' at the MTV awards. I'm smart enough to see a media set up coming and I'm not walking into it to give you an opportunity to mess with my head for a couple of headlines so you can sell yourself by putting your name below my picture.
You'll see us here again next year because you know and I know that I'm the future of this league. Stern knows it too and you just watch his reaction to what I'm telling you. Slap on the wrist cuz for the first time in over a decade that man knows his league is in steady, capable hands once again. I reiterate, you're not going to see me in defeat. Not on the court saying good job. Not in the press conference answering questions you already know the answers to.
These Guys Are Saying The Two Best Teams Are In.......... SHOCKING!
If you think this is anything more then a blip I have two words for you. Fuck and you. I'm not arrogant or stupid enough to tell you the truth though. And I'm not lame enough to sit there and give political answers dancing around the truth. So I'm choosing none of the above and filling in the blank with integrity. See you next year twice as hungry."
Hmm... I'm not sure if thats 'precisely' a word for word translation, and something tells me this CIA guy might have grown up in Cleveland. If you'd like to send feedback just stand next to your nearest non-suspicious looking plant and voice your opinions... his people will make sure your input will find its way to him... or you can just comment below.
Who ever claims that the NBA fixes every game or every finals? No one. I think claims they've fixed 'some' games, and 'some' finals are reasonable though. I'm not even sure if it was done in a sinister way. Sometimes it backfires. Sometimes not.
Making calls to extend a series to 7 games (which likely happened to the Kings, Blazers and Mavs) and making calls in favor of star players (which happens every single game) is game fixing. Its letting something other then competition decide games.
The point is not that refs fix games anyway. The league is set up in such a way that the officials often has more influence on outcomes then the players. The x-factor in any game is which team gets the most important calls. Assignment of refs to garner outcomes and questionable front office rulings to force game 7's are only a tiny proportion of the litany of ref's mistakes swinging entire games, series and thus seasons.
Can you blame the refs? Okay, you can. But its much harder to hold it against them when you consider the lack of help they get from the league. I don't count Stern's unfailing stock quotes of support. Smarmy "You know, I root for the officials" lines only make me hate them more. He claims they get it right 95% of the time when even refs admit (due to... logic!) that 20% of calls could go both ways. If refs were trained better, or you know, were not trying to keep up with athletic freaks 40 years younger then them, maybe we'd understand.
Pic Of The ACTUAL Act TD Was Thrown Out Of A Game Determining The #1 Seed For: The Refs Have Too Much Power
There is a simple solution: decisions by the league have to start being made to improve NBA competition instead of the NBA image. The league needs to experiment with ways to reduce that power so mistakes are not so costly. I suggest one way is to stop fouling players out.
A team's best player going to the bench due to foul trouble or getting ejected later is just too harsh of a punishment for the way refs are told to call the game now. Stars expect to get touch fouls called that would be 100% non-fouls in the 90's. Whistles control games more then ever. In a 48 minute game played at the insane speed/size/power of the NBA 6 fouls is just WAY too little.
5 and your out? Even 6? Its a rule created 80 years ago when the style of defense and abilities made it difficult to foul out. The number was totally arbitrary
TWEET!!!!! I Say! We The Official Old Timey All-Stars Hereby Decree On This, The Good 'Ol Day Of Jan. 13'th, 1898, That Players In 100 Years Will Be Dis-Lodged From Thou 'Playing Surface' Ere They Be Charged With 6 Fouls, One Per Old Timey Allstar! Aye, It Be Good, And God Fearing Men Shall Abide!
and since people making it were sporting mustaches, waist coats and pocket watches it was a rule made with 0 regard to the game as it's played in any modern context.
A guy who gets 2 fouls early, something ridiculously common, has to sit for a whole quarter or more, but only if he's really good. So bad players with fouls stay on the floor. Is that competition? I want to see the best players competing and outperforming each other as much as possible, not one team going up 20 because the opposing best player is sitting.
1 blown call can be worse then 10 bad plays by an individual player. Through no fault of their own refs have way too much power over the course of a game. People only complain when the end of a game is affected but the foul calls in the first directly affect the outcome more then many in the 4'th. Every game you watch key guys hit the bench or play with much less aggression for fear of picking up another touch foul.
Why not change fouls to work more like team fouls. A player gets 5 fouls. You foul in the act of shooting they get two shots. Every foul committed over five is an extra free throw for the victim. Make a shot and draw someone's 6'th foul, its 2 points and 2 free throws. For every foul over 8 or 9 the bonus shot is worth 2. I've never understood forcing players off the floor so less talented ones can suck up fouls.
It makes the game more choppy and violent as the scrubs who go in are there know they're getting minutes to hammer people with foul. They intend to use them too preventing the other team's stars from playing. The only reason the stars sit: they are too important to risk losing for crunch time. This keeps them on the floor and is just as much an incentive to keep it clean.
No wonder half the league's stars get injured every year when much less talented players are being subbed into games for the soul purpose of hitting stars as they jump through the air to the basket. There is no impediment for a guy who won't be closing to not foul and it ruins the quality of the league. The past decade is much better if Gilbert Arenas and Dwayne Wade didn't spend 2 or 3 years each playing crappy or off the court? A rule that reduced thug fouls would also reduce those injuries.
How does this not make the game better? Instead of gaining an advantage by playing a weaker version of your opponent, it gives teams an advantage to beat them at full strength. To win via athletic competition. Mano a mano, not mano a backup scrub. Get Howard in foul trouble and you can force potential four or five point plays at the end of regulation.
We need more ways for teams that are down to get back in it. Don't you want teams way down attacking the rim with fury instead of jacking desperation 3's? Should we not reward such play? Does it not improve every single blowout instantly?
This Is 4'th Quarter Excitement For More NBA Games Then Stern Would Like To Admit, Why????
Who's going to leave for the exits when they know Wade driving the lane as hard as he can is what they'll see, every play, in the last 2 minutes. Its a shame the league is terrified to experiment with it's sacred striped cows.
If they instituted a rule like this, everyone wins but the front office is too concerned with any admission of a mistake. The NHL has tweaked it's rules around continuously even changing the size of the nets and finally eliminating the neurtal zone trap to huge benefit. Hockey looks like hokey again. Not this NBA. Its the Nostalgia Basketball Association.
You can claim changes tarnish the legacy of the game but not adapting a sport's rules as it changes tarnishes the game right now. Perhaps we should go back to soccer balls, peach baskets and scores in the 20's? Or, maybe use our heads, make intelligent changes that improve the game, and create a new legacy firmly grounded in common sense and a drastically improved product for all.
Yet Another Highly Evolved Fan - More Visible, Check! Or: The NBA, Where Class Happens!
Part one listed the four conceptual fan eras of pro hoop. You can read it here. This covers the intangibles of how fandom has changed continuously over the span of those eras.
Quality of actual play since the 50's has seen dramatic growth it is dwarfed by that of the fan. Casual fans today possess knowledge about basketball that's grown astronomically past the point of even GM's from older eras.
Not that fans are inherently 'better': the environment has changed. Following hoop and knowing anything about it has just evolved. Consider these 4 factors pushing fandom to the next level. 1. NBA Availability/Visibility
In the early 1950’s the fan experience existed at the stadium, on the radio and in the newspaper. 1 in 10 people actually owned a “picture box”. I've often heard “You weren’t there, you don’t know what it was like!” Not really true: here's a revelation: people who say that were not there either.
No one was. Who really followed The League. A stadium holds 10-20,000. Catching a random NBA game on TV, if you were lucky enough to have one, was almost 0.
This Is Exactly How My Father Described Watching Sports When He Was Young... He WAS Ther
Perhaps you saw Lakers vs Celtics or the ‘game of the week’. How many people tuned into the 1950’s warriors/clippers match up to see 1950’s Joe Alexander pad his stats in garbage time? Short answer: 0. Today: lots.
By the end of the 50’s more then 9 in 10 homes had a television. Fair enough but no difference. Circa 1964 all we have of the most famous game ever is a picture of Wilt with a piece of paper someone had written ‘100’ in black marker. Oh, a radio call of the last 3 minutes someone recorded in their dorm room that was released 30 years later. And the 1000's of anecdotes by fans claiming they were there at Madison Square Garden when Wilt scored 100!!!! The irony is thick.
Its the most exhausted and tired reason driving 1,000's of Wilt is the best arguments. Its inconsequential if Wilt is not the Greatest Of All Time (GOAT), or that his game is not the best in NBA history. Its possible. The point is no one who makes those claims saw it and therefore anything spoken about it is a pure fabrication.
I'm betting the people who arrogantly pull rank and say "You weren't there man!" are not even slightly aware that the oldest entire recorded event is game 7 of the 1963 finals. That means Bill Russel's prime is evidenced by inflated stats and anecdotes because the vast majority of his career has only been seen once, if at all, by the smallest percentage of the population.
People had no choice but to make things up to fill in coverage gaps. 95% of the league was not available. Talking sports meant telling creative stories about the few games you saw or about how your fave player won an arm wrestling contest. ESPN classic games 'are' the things they watched. If they did actually see a game they didn't watch it again for 30 odd years until ESPN classic replayed them.
Impressions were garnered from a single viewing, with no instant replay, with no casual post-game re-examination, then reinforced by discussion of memories and unverifiable facts. Chinese telephone is not exactly a bastion of accuracy.
This Is All Anyone Has Seen Of Wilt's 100 Point 'MSG' Performance (wink!). Is Holding A Sign Grounds For Being The GOAT?
All games are now recorded/broadcast nationally. All big plays are on 24 hour highlights and you tube within minutes. Every game is available for down load and is tivo'ed to be reviewed by fans who are not depending on their emotions/memory to form ideas. They want what happened. Not impressions of what happened.
I re-watched Rocky 1-2 decades after I saw it the first time. I was amazed I had forgotten that Rocky didn't beat Creed. Memories of emotional moments are an incredibly poor substance for a basis of anything factual. Today's fans can refresh their memory 100's of times compared to someone in the 50's who didn't even have instant replay. Its not even close.
2. Data Collection
Basketball opinions have bias created by attachment to the players/teams people think about. Without data its incredibly difficult to formulate an informed opinion on any topic because you will naturally lean towards the result you want. Entire careers for ESPN's John Hollinger and Houston's GM, Darryl Morey come from beating back that bias. More then anything else a solid statistical basis combined with traditional opinions can propel an idea about sports from homer fanboying and actual insightful observance. Using data properly is integral to any understanding of sports.
The less data you have the more narrow your perspective. You have to rely on flawed human experience for more of your analytical foundation. Combine this with point 1. You are one of the lucky few who had season tickets in Philly. You saw games: you have a great opinion. But without season splits do you really know if the home production of Wilt is equal to his road production? Not really. I bet you not a single home fan of Wilt's ever made the concession "granted, I've only seen him play at home." It probably does not enter an fan's brain in the 1950's as the home/road concept came from stats. Even if Wilt played better on the road the opinion is weakened by home play dwarfing other influences.
Lack data narrowed what fans considered when they thought about sports. Points, dimes and boards only scratch the surface. It was not until 1973/74 that the NBA even started to record blocks and steals. Per 36/48 mintues, PER, all splits, head to head stats, rebound percentages, assist to turnover ratios, adjusted plus/minus, win shares and a plethora of stats just did not exist in older eras.
There is still an abysmal lack of defensive stats. Steals... and thats all. Tomorrow's fan will be able to base their opinions on things like blow bys, open shot percentage, altered shots, contested shot percentage, drive rate, points per pass, forced double teams, unforced turnovers, shot contests, shot contest percentage, step back defense, show/hedge percentage. For all the stats that we have today on older fans, I'm convinced tomorrow will have at least twice on us. And their stats will be much more relevant to showing exactly why a player is valuable.
Nash Can Score Consistantly From The Whole Floor, AND, I Can Prove It
I can show you exactly how Steve Nash shoots from anywhere on the court for any of his splits. He's amazingly consistent from every spot on the floor and his shot chart shows that definitively. Jerry West was a great shooter, but can it truely be shown. No.
The best someone can factually say is "I guess we'll never know, because that information does not exist." Which is no knock on Jerry West, we don't know so he gets the benefit of the dobut, but it is a damning indictment of 50's/60's fan sophistication. Thinking their players are great, but its based on intangible memories of unquantifiable events. If we learn anything from stats its that what we think from watching the game can often be grossly bias without us even intending to be. How many times have you looked at a box score of a player you don't like to be surprised he's shot 60%? If you formed opinions in an era with 0 stats, that bias had 0 counters, and raged on unchecked.
3. Data Availability
Having data is nothing without access. Growing up a witness to the birth of the internet you have an acute appreciation for life before and after. In elementary school if you wanted to learn about anything it took a trip to the library. You find right right volume of the encyclopedia and if the subject was around long enough it was covered in your edition. The process could take hours. Today accessing that data takes less then three seconds, or however long it takes me to type the name in and hit enter.
Fill In The Blank: Basketball Reference Is To The Sports Alamanac What The Calculator Is To The ____________
In the 50s and 60s, access to stats were limited to what was reported during broadcasts and printed in the newspapers. A sports almanac was handy but really a collection of the former two sources. I know this because during the 80's when I started watching ball, its all I had.
My own NBA almanac still sits at home on my shelf dog eared from years and years of use. I used to sit studying records of players like Wilt and Russell as I learned the history of the game for hours. I'm guessing it was even more limited in the 50's and 60s with a comparatively limited sources of stats to put in such books.
I Learned lots, but all past tense. Real time, even simple shooting percentages from current seasons: forget it. If your paper published those stats (unlikely) and the player was not in the top 10 (who cares) you're limited to points, assists and rebounds per game. No pace, minutes played or any of the other ultra relevant per game stat factors.
Fast forward. www.basketball-reference.com. What kind of season is LBJ really having to win MVP. I can call up the total number of games shooting over 50% he's had. Compare it with other players in history. 30 seconds. Career field goal % compared to this season. 5 seconds. Head to head matchups vs Shane Battier to see how he is under that pressure, then compare to how Kobe deals with Shane. Then compare those stats to how he plays against a weaker defensive team like the Suns. 1-2 minutes. That's just one site. There is also 82 Games, Database Basketball and many others.
Access/stats have not so much as increased, the magnitude sky rocketed to the point that the significance of stats used in the past is truly approaching 0. Almost meaningless. You could get away with making statements so long as lots of people agreed with you. Since it would take a few hours, days, weeks or months to gather/generate information to challenge a general statement (say, that West was a better shooter then Bird) opinions were created/rejected/accepted with little to no verification.
For the above, the answer would be based on something like number of big time shots they made. Not that even but the ones they remembered, big time shots being useless as an indicator in the first place. Without the numbers and 10 minutes of math on paper to make even cursory adjustments theres nothing else. Would a shooter like West be at the level he's considered today if B-Ball Reference existed when he played? Its an interesting question.
Bird/Magic: Best On The Planet, Millionaires: As The Writer Of A Nearly Undread Blog I Would Own Them Like Children In Any Stats Conversatio
Consider Magic's often recounted stories about how he could not wait till the next morning paper to see how Larry Bird did. If Magic can get updates sent to his cell phone every time players make a play in real time during the game. Magic at millions in the 80's can't afford the same stats available to a homeless person today. Its changed THAT much.
GMs did not even have that access. No one did. People seriously need to think about the signifigance of homeless people having better information then Magic Johnson.
4. Expansion/Sophistication Of Sports Media
Dedicated sports reporting was attempted in the early 1980s. ESPN was scoffed at as a gimmick. What could you possible discuss about sports for 24 hours? Detractors missed. Deeper analysis would not bore but challenge us to keep up. Supply fed back into demand. Fans learned more, fans wanted more and these two institutions formed an ever expanding symbiotic relationship.
Previously, newspapers paid beat reporters to take quotes, go on road trips, and shadow the team reporting their insights. That's how people related to their team. Today every game is followed by a press conference and players are sending tweets to fans at half time. The middle man is being replaced with direct communication to those interested in how they do their jobs.
These are real people like us. Mark Cuban, to my total surprise, responded to a random e-mail I sent regarding the great Seattle Stern/Clay Bennet Gang Rape. He has his faults... but he's easily one of the best owners in sports. Modern fans don't want middlemen, they want to sift information themselves.
Marv's Biting Play By Play Is Great As Ever, But Now His Booth Is Backed Up By Authority
The result: career announcers like Marv Albert are paired with completely qualified coaches like Jeff Van Gundy, Doc Rivers, Doug Collins and Hubie Brown. With them are all time great players like Reggie Miller and Marc Jackson giving insights that are over the head of even recent fans.
Isiah and Magic's failed booth attempts had much to do with timing. Fans would not understand the details/lingo so they were caught in endless chatter about 'running the right lanes' when you know he had to hold back how to break a match up zone on the break.
Its evolution. Steve Kerr, now GM of the Suns, was having advanced basketball conversations for fans before running an NBA team. Van Gundy and Jackson can now pull up a 360 degree camera still, move players around in 3 dimensions showing a play it it's natural environment, reset, roll tape, and fans see the real time play.
Casual fans who had never even seen a play diagram were getting confused by x's and o's in the announcer's hen scratches with a light pen. Comprehension of a pick/roll was considered advanced. With educated fans dribble jabber is now replaced with serious discussion of what makes and breaks games.
5. So Whats the overall result?
Today's average/slightly above average NBA fan comprehends advanced concepts like defensive hedging/shading/funneling, intricacies of complicated sets like the Triangle or the flex/princton offesne. Defensive advantages of zones and presses that were glossed over in the past as merely 'double teams'.
In the front office matters fans are actively aware of the Collective Bargaining Agreement to the point where they can create totally feasible trades that make sense on the court and on paper. They're acutely aware of scouting reports from college to the high school level, player contract details and can make educated guesses on the moves of every team in the league for the next 5 years.
Discreet knowledge of all sorts of medical knowledge regarding specific tendons, liniments and joints is common. Details of how to solve many issues with arthroscopic and micro-fracture knee surgery and the estimated recovery times specific injuries will have. Fans know Wade tore his labrum and it's much more serious then Kendrick Perkins's rotator cuff who can play through the pain. Rotoworld will report on each player's status daily.
Meet Daryl Morey - Computer Geek, Never Played, NBA Fan, 0 Experience, Best GM In The Game
Many fans today could actually do a reasonable job of running an NBA team. Darryl Morey went from having a computer science degree and a few years working with the celtics to uber success as the GM of the Rockets. He destoryed his tenured counterparts by stealing player after player in the draft. I'm pretty sure his friend Bill Simmons actually has a much deeper understanding of the league then many running/and or playing in it.
Modern fans are not 'better' then older ones per se. No change in dedication. Its obvious in 1960 didn't benefit from these advantages. My dad watched the games I PVR through store windows and thats not his fault.
You still have to consider how ideas and thoughts work though. Once a person believes something its very unlikely to change and the longer ago that idea was formulated the more its encased in mental cement.
If that idea is based on a relative lack of information something has got to give. Its not even that those opinions are wrong but more the people who hold them are not sure why they are right, or think they are.
Being sure has changed over time. You could say something and back it up with an anecdote of a game you attended. All there was to challange it was yet more anecdotes. Ironclad arguments didn't really exist. They somewhat do today though in a sports universe who's perspective expands with every game played and you tube upload.
Remember to be kind. Even though the most hard core era fan axioms appear merely casual in modern times our own time is coming. What fans can digest is only being discovered. We want a more intelligent informed approach. There is demand and it will once again drive supply.
At Some Point You Just Have To Accept: Things Have Come A Long Way :)
In years to come I'm not going to enjoy talking sports with my kids. My MJ will be my father's Wilt. They'll wonder why I can't just 'show' why MJ was the best defensive player in the league. I won't be able to show that, there is nothing to show, and they'll tell me that's okay, when they run a defense/MJ tag search on all his games ever played and see his top 100 rated defensive plays ever, he looks like he might still be an ok player. Then they'll add "but he played before Asian people even played in the league." They'll be right: 60 years old, this sport and league is still in it's infancy.
Part of me wants to be the good guy. Just smile when someone who's 60 remembers their heroes a little creatively. Their rose colored era glasses are more of a time warp to when being a fan had a little more 'fanaticism' for your team and a little less 'understanding' of the game. Fandom is changing. The rate of that evolution is increasing continuously. While I'll be sad to realize one day everything I think now is fit for the pit I appriciate the legacy of just 'getting better' and welcome it. I seriously can't wait to see whats coming next.
