Rosey Picture? Is Derrick Rose For MVP Hype?

First Things First, No Matter
What My Conclusion  Is, Derrick
Rose Is A Freakishly Talented Player

I hate to burst the bubble here, but things have changed regarding how people talk about the Bulls of late. For years it was about their dire need of inside scoring. They were a .500 team.

When Boozer was out to start the season, they had a 9-6 record and very much resembled the .500 team they've been for two years. Since they've gone 25-9 behind a much more balanced inside/outside attack. Now the story I'm hearing has changed as well. Now that they are beating good teams it's all due to Derrick Rose, the league MVP?

They've played Portland, Utah, Dallas Twice, MIA, Bos twice , LAL, OKC, ORL twice. That's 10 solid games with Boozer. The difference from pre-Boozer is instead of losing those games they've won most of them going 7-3 vs just good teams. That's before you consider that one each of the Bos/Orl games was Boozer's first and second game of the year. And I'm not even counting teams like Memphis and Phoenix who they beat with winning records.

Speaking of Portland, if we want to award the MVP to a player who's stepped up to lead his team through injuries, then Lamarcus Aldridge is undoubtedly this year's MVP. It's not even close. But Bulls fans are making that argument for Rose, who's obviously not been hampered by injuries on the Bulls like LA on Portland. Here are a few more arguments:

Rose carried the team when Boozer was hurt at the beginning of the year when they had a crazy tough schedule.

This winning did not start till Carlos Boozer came in to provide the inside scoring they've so famously lacked. I love Noah. Not a Boozer fan. I have to admit though, he's an upgrade. Especially offensively. The hype is ceaseless though... lets check it out:

Boozer had his first game on Dec. 1. At that point the Bulls were 9-6. They had 3 wins vs winning teams. Was this because of Rose?

1. Dallas: They held the Mavs to 83 points. Rose had 22 points on 32% shooting and 6 dimes. Noah had a 10/17 and Taj Gibson a 17/18. This was a defence oriented win led by their big men.

2. Denver: Rose had 18/6 on 33% shooting. But again, Noah had a 19 board double double, they held them to 92 points, and won by a basket.

3. Portland: Rose had a good game, 16/13, but this was Deng's night. When he shot 74% and scored 40 points leading them to the win.

Keep In Mind, I Have Never Liked This Douche

Before Boozer they were beating bad teams and getting beaten by good teams. Upgrade Noah to a 20/10 guy who demands a double team and the result is "it's Rose keeping his team in it" rather then oh yea, that huge signing we made this summer that filled a hole that kept us playing .500 ball for 3 straight years... yea, that worked.

Talking up Rose for work vs the Cavs and Kings of the league is weak for an MVP argument. Even if Boozer has not been playing out of his mind, it balances the team offensively. Shooters stretch the floor for bigs, and vice versa, bigs collapse defences to create open shots/lanes for shooters/slashers. Even when you look at their quality wins after Boozer started playing, they aren't getting them because of Rose. They're winning because of their D.

Vs. LA, 84. OKC, 90. BOS, 79. Mavs 77l. ORL, 90. Lets look into that argument next.

Derick Rose has led the Bulls to wins over every elite team in the league!

Sounds fantastic. But you've got to look closer.

Reason 1 The Bulls Are Winning

At the All Star break a reasonable elite cut off looks to be 35 wins. That makes the elite NBA teams Miami, Orlando, Seattle, San Antonio, LA, Dallas and Boston. This makes sense on paper and practice. So lets look at the production.

Vs elite teams Rose shoots a pretty poor 42% to score 26 ppg. His dimes dip considerably to just over 7. And did they beat elite teams? They've also lost to almost all of them as well. In those losses and wins Rose doesn't change and shoots 42%. In Losses he averages 24 points. In wins about 27 points. So an extra basket and a half. Is this leading the Bulls in these wins over great teams? The difference of a basket and a half?

No. Defence is. A non-factor in Rose's game. Vs Elite teams the Bulls are holding opponents to an average of 94 PPG. In their losses, 104.66 points. In their wins they're crushing the competition with 87.25 points allowed. A difference of 20 PPG? Yes, that's a leading factor to wins.

Reason #2 (and 1) The Bulls Are Winning

In wins Rose only has a single game with more then 10 assists vs Orlando. He had 22/10, but they held the Magic to 78 points. Consider Rose's 11 point, 23% shooting win over the Thunder. Rose is their best player, but they are winning with defence if he plays well or not. In fact, the Bulls have a 9-1 record in Rose's 10 worst shooting games, all of them under 35%.

That's smoke and mirrors though. Are these 'elite' wins? They look like it in the schedule. But a cursory look at those 8 wins shows it's obvious the Bulls didn't actually best elite teams. I guess they were wearing elite jerseys, sure, but they came down to their level of the Bulls competition and not the reverse. Observe:

Their lone win vs Boston came when KG AND Perkins were out.

Their lone win over the Heat came when Lebron was out. They still only beat them by 3 points.

They beat Dallas once with no Butler and a hobbled Dirk who rushed back and was visibly limping on the court. It wasn't Rose's 22/6 that led them in their other Dallas win but 10/17 from Noah and a 17/18 from Taj Gibson as previously discussed.

Their lone win vs the Thunder came on an 11 point, 23% shooting stinker from Rose.

Their win over the Lakers was decent but a total team effort. LA had just lost 4 straight to the Jazz, Pacers, Griz and Rockets the week before... I'm not sure what that means but I watched that game, and LA was looking anything but elite while being crushed by the Bulls D.

The win over the Magic Rose had 12 dimes, but 22 points on 28% shooting... good but not amazing.

Scratch That, The #1 Reason The Bulls
Are Winning Is 'Suited Up' In This Pic All Right

And then the Spurs win, when Rose positively dominated. Don't want to take anything away from a gifted player after all whom I'm huge on. Just low on hype.

Conclusion: Rose has 'led' them to wins over an elite team for sure, once, on a career night. Pretending this is regular is disingenuous. If he keeps up last night for the rest of the season, by all means, give that kid the MVP. As yet though he has not earned it vs the best teams in the NBA. And since we brought up D so much, how did I get through this whole paragraph without giving massive credit to Tom Thibiedeau, who's truly at the heart of the Bulls league and 'team leading' D?

Derick Rose is playing at a higher level then anyone in the league

Rose just had his first 40 point game of his career. In comparison, LeBron James has 3 40 point games this season and one 50 point game. As the PG Rose's best passing game is 14, once. Same as Lebron from the 3. Rose has 15 double digit dime games but he's also the point guard. Lebron has 10. Rose has 17 games shooting over 50%. Bron has 24.

How Bulls Fans Percieved The Rose/James
Argument Before The Decision

With no dominant big men the Heat are the league's 4'th best defensive team. Lebron's offensive impact is also worth noting as the Heat are the 4'th best offensive team He's at the center of everything they run on both ends. This is compared to Rose, running the 19'th 'best' offence in the league... just ahead of the Pistons and Kings depending on the day.

It's not his play giving them a shot like an MVP's play should. It's his inefficiency at the point that's actually stagnating their offence. Forcing low percentage attempts for himself instead of creating easy baskets for his team mates is reflected in his low FG% and assists .

Lebron vs Rose comes down to facts. It's factual that Lebron is out producing Derrick Rose. It's factual that Lebron is lifting the Heat on both ends of the court to an elite level. It's factual that the Bulls are elite at the one thing Rose does not do well, and terrible at the one thing he does do well. Conclusion: Lebron is drastically more valuable to his team.

Lets attempt a Dwight comparison. He seems to get overlooked yearly. With terrible defensive players Orlando is the third best defensive team in the league. Rose's elite offensive numbers. 13 30 + games. 1 40+ game. 15 10 dimes games. 17 games shooting over 50%.

Dwight. A ridiculous 5 20+ rebound games. 22 15 board games. 47 10 board games. 4 5 block games. 1 40 point game. 10 30 point games.47 games shooting over 50%.

I know, it's not fair to compare a center and a PG. But to me, it's aparant that Dwight's impact on D, as well as O, is just above Rose's. He has only shot under 50% in 8 games out of 55. The Magic field crappy defensive players who Howard lifts to elite defensive status.

Rose vs Howard. Fact:The Bulls are a crappy offensive team with, uh... well... pretty freaking elite offensive players. (more on this in a bit). Fact: Rose is not lifting the team offensively because even with his high PPG, they are still nothing but below average offensively. Fact: Dwight Howard makes the Magic good at everything because he's actually the league's MVP. Okay, not a fact, but pretty much.

The Bulls would be nothing, a lottery team, without Derick Rose

Oh, but Rose is scoring lots of points! Sure, but since he's only affecting offence how far would they fall? The better question: how far could they fall? Past the hapless Pistons, who rank two spots down from the Bulls? Detroit is conducting a t-mac experiment at point. Their best scoring big man is Chris Wilcox. Their best rebounder is Greg Monroe. Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, their 'big signings' are not even starting. Rip Hamilton is not even playing. Why? Because the team has no clue how to score or what it's doing. Noah, Boozer and Deng are arguably the best front line in basketball. Taj Gibson is a 'great' backup who can take over games and is coming into his own. Kyle Korver last season... wait a minute now. This gets it's own paragraph.

Kyle Korver just posted the best 3 point percentage in league history last season. 53.6%.

Without Rose this team would still be amazing on D, and could not possibly be that much worse on O. Why? Because Rose doesn't really make them much better on Offense. The reality that scoring loads of points on 44% shooting is not efficient play.

With an average point guard running the offence the Bulls are still better then the Pistons and Kings. They don't have Luol Dengs ripping off 40 points in huge games with elite D. I see no one capable of multiple 15+ board games like both Noah, Boozer AND Gibson have had this season. I don't see any history leading shooters coming off the bench. Noah, their offensive liability, still shoots over 50% for 14 PPG. What I do see is a sneaky stacked team that is a lock for the playoffs with their league leading defence whether Rose is there or not.

I must be mistaken though, because this is the response I get from this point:

You must not be watching the Bulls, if you did, it would be obvious Rose is their best player and takes all the big shots

On the contrary, I am watching the Bulls, and apparently people making this argument are only watching Derrick Rose. Rose is their best offensive player. I could even see how Rose is their best overall player. He's totally the future of the franchise. But he's not the MVP now. Not because of this point.

How do I know? Because of Shawn Marion.

How does Marion prove anything about Derrick Rose? Simple. Marion is a perfect foil to Rose to test the logic of the above statement for validity. In 2007 the Suns were the best team in basketball. There was no doubt this was because they were the most potent offensive team in the league. They had a brilliant play maker with a brilliant offensive coach in a brilliant offensive system.

There was no doubt that Marion was their most versatile and best defensive player. There was no doubt that he was their go to guy on any and all big stops in games. Except the Suns stank on defence. (except not as bad as the Bulls on offence. The Suns were above average ranked 13'th on D while the Bulls are ranked 19'th on O). Marion came 4'th in DPOY voting that year. I'm not sure, but I don't think anyone else on that team has ever received even a single vote for DPOY.

I'm sure you've figured out why this argument stinks. Offence is flashy and sexy but it's not worth more then defence. Being the best at something a team that wins is terrible at does not make you an MVP just because the things you're good at make weekly top 10's. They get you all star selections, and that's very fair, but the MVP is about winning: sports centre is not.

The defensive drop off between Marion and the rest of the Suns is much more drastic then offensive equivalent between Rose and the Bulls. This is self-evident. Shawn Marion on the Suns is vice versa mirror of Rose on the Bulls. Except Marion was way better on O (3'rd on the team) then Rose is on D (5'th or 6'th). Also self-evident: there is no effing way Shawn Marion was the 2007 Suns, or, league MVP.

The only way this argument validly suggests Rose is the league MVP is if you:

1. Think Marion was the 2007 league, or hell, just team MVP on the Suns.

2. Think that offence is more 'valuable' then defence.

In both scenarios you've got a completely impossible task on your hands because both assertions 1 and 2 are categorically ridiculous. Yes, Rose takes the big shots, but he also misses small shots, which lead to situations when he has to take big shots, which leads to a bunch of losses because Derrick Rose as stated, hits fewer shots then he misses.

In fact, Derrick Rose hits even less of his 'big shots'. Per 82games.com, Rose is only shooting 39.6% in clutch situations this season. The Bulls are still winning. Is it because Rose is lifting them? No, it's because he's being carried by team MVP, Tom Thibideau and his supporting cast of kick ass defensive players. Both Rose and Marion made their teams a lot better but neither of them 'made' their teams what they were. That is precisely what MVP's do. QED.

But.. But... But he scores all their points!

Ah, yes, so when trying to cope with the logic of the Shawn Marion foil, some fans have responded by rejecting that logic, and then merely repeating that anyone who watched the games would see Rose is their best scorer. Even though it's not addressed, lets make one more comparison.

Who's the MVP of the showtime Lakers? Is it James Worthy? Jamal Wilkes? Byron Scott? Kareem? Maybe Kareem has a case very early in the era, but the MVP is without question Magic Johnson.

Except every single one of those other players above outscored him in various seasons. Magic's natural place in the points column was third on the team. Everyone but Jamal Wilkes led the team in scoring for an entire season. Even Byron Scott. Other players would tend to take the big shots and scored the most points but Magic was still the MVP.

Why? The Lakers won with offence. They were built around Magic. They won and lost with the ebb and flow of his game. He was most valuable to the team for this reason. If your team wins regardless of how good a game you have, you just can't be that valuable because obviously, something or someone on your team is good enough to generate wins on it's/their own.

The Laker's leading scorers were Scott and Big Game James but they were where they were because they had Magic. Scoring all the points and taking the big shots is a faulty reason to make someone the MVP. The Bulls leading scorer and most exciting player is Derrick Rose, but they are where they are because they have a Magic Defence.

But... But... But... Rose Leads The League In Points/Assists/Rebounds Combined! He Has To Be MVP!

I love how each season a new 'stat' floats out of the ether that people use to justify their bias. I've never heard people mention this before. As if a single point is equal to an assist. A solid dime scores 2 or 3 points and a rebound gets an entire possession yet it's the same as making a free throw?

I've even heard the homer Bulls announcers make this claim during broadcasts. The sad part? This is total bullshit. It's a lie. Just like the 'when Rose shoots more, we win more' lie being pushed by the Rose4MVP agenda, it's factually incorrect. Observe:


Lebron: 26.2 + 7.1 + 7.6=40.9
Kevin Love: 20.8+15.8+2.5=39.1
Dwight: 23 + 13.9 + 1.3= 38.2
Durant: 28.2+7.3+2.8=38.3
Amare: 26.4+8.3+2.6=37.3





Who's at the bottom of this league leading list?

Rose: 24.5+8.1+4.3=36.9

It's not even remotely close. I just took a few people I suspected would be higher then him too. There could be more.

Rose has become the best point guard in the league and is out playing his peers

It's not fair to compare Rose's stats to bigs. Things like rebounds and blocks are so much in their favor. Another hype sound byte I've heard is that Rose is now the best point in the game. If he's the MVP he should be out playing other candidates at his position, right? Howard compared to other 5's screams 'best' and 'elite'. So how's he stack up vs the 1's he's supposedly passed. First up, my boy, Steve Nash.

Nash vs Rose.

15 dime games.
16 - 0.

10 dime games
34 - 15

Rose does score a little more obviously:

30 point games
0 - 13

20 point games

18 - 39

But not nearly as efficiently

50% shooting games
32-17

What's happening? Rose is making bad decisions. Setting up his own shots rather then team mates. It's padding his PPG but killing his team's offence. This is why elite points own him on FG% and dimes while his positive offensive impact is over rated. He looks GREATon sports center. The reality is he's missing way more shots then he's taking, not passing enough.

The Best Of The Best For FCP. Nuff Said.

Team is a lot though. Lets compare the help between Nash/Rose here too.

Inside scoring
Carlos Boozer vs Hakim Warrick or Robin Lopez or Jared Dudley or Marcin Gortat. I love Gortat. Big time. But Boozer, who I really don't like much, is just wildly the better inside scorer.

Outside shooting
Channing Frye vs Kyle Korver. Hmm... Frye's best season from the arc is 43% which is the only season, ever, he's shot over 40%. Korver's best season is a full 10% better when he LED HISTORY in 3 point percentage and he's always been one of the elite shooters in the game.

Not to mention in this match up, Rose is about 1000 times faster then Nash. So if Rose is playing at an MVP level, which is above the entire league, and Rose is an offensive player, why is it that Nash's offensive impact destroys his? Nash's team is elite on offense while Rose has better offensive players.

CP3 vs Rose

Chris Paul's team, well, they suck. I'm not sure how to compare. There is nothing elite about David West. Some nice post moves? But he's soft. And he's not 20/10. Okafor is nice defensively for sure. But the Bulls players own the crappy Hornets. Still...

15 dime games.
4 - 0.

10 dime games
29 - 15

Rose does score a little more obviously:

30 point games
0 - 13

20 point games

17 - 39

But not nearly as efficiently

50% shooting games
28-17

Wait a minute, did Nash just own Chris Paul as well? A bit but at least Paul's team stinks so you can't make the same argument against him. It's still intriguing that with about a quarter the athletic ability, Nash is still playing the point at a higher level then all these people who have supposedly passed him.

Lets just do one more head to head to head comparison in case we got confused with who's elite in Rose's peer group.


Nash/CP3/Rose

Games shooting under 40%

8/16/15

Games with less then 10 dimes
17/29/37

And note, I didn't bring up 3 point shooting cuz it's not really fair and to be fair, you can still be a fantastic PG/player/MVP without shooting 3's.

So Why Has Derrick Rose Been Hyped?

There are 4 main reasons.

1. Rose is awesome, and scores lots of points. High PPG in the NBA is sexy and easy for writers to fake like they know what they're talking about.

2. Rose has a plethora of awesome sports centre highlights.

3. The Bulls have a very good record.

4. Most importantly, Rose plays for a large market team. Amare plays in NYC and got hype for the same reason early in the year when they beat a string of hapless teams for a week or two. (thanks to my reader John for pointing this out, I'd forgotten to mention it, along with Rose's obvious east coast bias).

And keep in mind, I really do love watching Rose. Awesome player. I'm totally looking forward to watching him for years to come. But something sucks about Derrick Rose. It's not him but his growing legions of irrational fans who seem to be beating rational ones into submission.

People are trying to make him the MVP instead of letting him earn it. Dwight Howard's rise is not sexy now. We already know he's great and expect it. Lebron's brilliance has won two MVP's and people want to hate him. Everyone knows CP3 already got robbed but he's so 2008. Not that Rose can't still push his team higher and win it fair and square. He can. He just has not separated himself from the pack as of yet though.

He's been on a team that appears to have been saddled by injuries all season who in reality got better then they've ever been when Noah got hurt because Boozer stepped in to replace him.

They've been lucky because about half the time they've faced the best teams they've gotten gimmes instead of the usual ass kicking like when they faced those same teams full strength. Don't get me wrong, Rose has made a sizeable jump in his career this season. It's great to watch. But he's not playing at an MVP level... yet.

D12: DPOY: MVP Candidate: Dwight Howard Unnoticed?

Clark Kent Has Left The BuildingI'm not going to pretend that Dwight Howard is not getting attention. He's slated to win DPOY and discussed in the MVP talk but not nearly the way he should be. The Magic won 59 games this year, good for third in the east with a PG who was never taken seriously, going down, and replaced with a playground baller turned pro. The team features other such 'stopper staters' as Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson/Raefer Alston and Mickael Pietrus. Orlando Magic defensive rating: #1.

With the Celtic's latest KG news the Magic have to be considered favorites to reach the eastern finals: Philly/Chicago/beat up Celtics can't be considered a bigger challenge then Detroit/Miami/Atlanta, right? Not when the Magic have handed it to the Greens all season.

The media has anointed him 'most dominant big in the league'. Right? The magic came together as a team and he's getting all the credit he deserves. Right?

Wrong. I follow the league. Dwight Howard is the center piece of my (first place, rock!) fantasy team. I check his box scores nearly every time he plays. In a recent ESPN MVP writer's poll he got paltry results... 1 second-place vote, 2 third, 10 fourth, 1 fifth.

I follow daily yet I was not aware of his progress. The capacity of the leap is astounding. I took a look, and a double take, at the numbers. This year is not a campaign for most dominant player in the league. This year is the start of a campaign for most dominant big in history. This includes you, Big Shaqtus.

Three disclaimers.

1. I'm not comparing Dwight to Shaq Daddy today. This is Shaq in his prime vs Dwight before he enters his.

2. I realize rules have changed recently increasing things like scoring. But its also made it harder for bigs to defend and board. Move over league history. Dwight is here and will be most dominant ever.

3. Only having access to stats from 1986 on I know this leaves players out of the mix. Honestly however basketball before this time was a different game. Sorry if it offends you but Wilt and Russel would not be anywhere near the players they were after 1986 on. That's my opinion I suppose, and I cede that on sheer dominance, Wilt would blow Dwight away on these lists, but I literally don't have the resources to show that era's stats or I would. So this is really just about the more modern era of ball. On with it!

Edit: One more disclaimer. Got into a discussion on a forum about this post and a litany of incredibly angry ball fans appeared to be mortally insulted that I could suggest Shaq was anything but the most dominant player ever and Dwight his little bitch. So people should note (or perhaps you know, just read the following definition that should have taken care of this in the first place) that I don't actually claim Dwight is better then Shaq. Nor do I think he's better, greater or more acomplished then Shaq. He's too young to be compared at that level.

I claim he's more dominant which is a measure of how good you are in relation to your peers and I back it up fairly well. Shaq was great and dominant but played in an era with peer big men who were periodically above him, below him and close to him. So, to the edumacated among us, here's a place you can get help and I have some great Dr. Seuss books... lets continue.

Nature's Version Of Dwight Howard

Dictionary.com says

Dominate:
–verb (used with object)
1. to rule over; govern; control.
2. to tower above; overlook; overshadow: A tall pine dominated the landscape.

Stats too often focus on a single category over a season and miss the forest for the trees. Its how a player combines all cats in a single game that counts. I define center dominance as points, rebounds and blocks. Comparison is not really what the dictionary wants here either. He must dominate the landscape as the mighty pine. So, lets compare Dwight, one player, to the entire league, of 432 of players.

First up, a double double. For bigs it only indicates you are doing your job. Its not dominant. If you block 5 shots in the process however you're starting to own the paint. How many games is Dwight's mark?

10/10/5 Club

Years Pro	Player	Pos	10/10/5 Games
1	NBA	A	32
2	Dwight Howard	C	14
3	Marcus Camby	F	5
4	Andris Biedrins	C	3
5	Tim Duncan	F	3
6	Chris Andersen	F	2
7	Yao Ming	C	2
8	Josh Smith	F	2

Not so great Dwight. The entire league has 18 more 10/10/5 games while you only have 14. Never mind that its 3 times number 2 Camby, nearly 5 times Duncan/Biedrins and 7 times everyone else. It takes the next 5 top players in the league to equal your total Dwight. You can't dominate a girl scout.

Dwight's Response: 10 points nor 10 boards are anything to get excited about. I'm all man now so get those child stats outta my house.

We'll oblige the big fella. Lets add 5 boards to that total.


10 points, 15 boards, 5 blocks

Rk	Player	Pos	Games
1	Dwight Howard	C	10
2	Entire NBA	A	4
3	Andris Biedrins	C	1
4	Marcus Camby	F	1
5	Tim Duncan	F	1
6	Al Horford	C	1

Once the numbers reflect raw pwnage inside, Howard more then doubles the entire NBA's production. Individuals only have 1 such game a piece. Lets keep going, but its not fair to list them anymore. Sorry Timmy... you didn't make the cut. Just to show whats happening with Dwight Howard vs. the world the numbers have to be increased.

15/15/5

Years Pro	Player	15/15/5 Games
1	Dwight Howard	8
2	NBA	2

20/20/5 Games

Years Pro	Player	20/20/5 Games
1	Dwight Howard	2
2	NBA	0

4 times the whole NBA in 15/15/5 games? INSANE! Did you notice? In the 20/20/5 club of "I am center, hear me roar" Dwight Howard is putting up infinity percent more then the rest of the league. Infinity percent, times two, to be precise.

Which leads us to history. For a BIG the 20/20 personifies the separation of good and great. The marker of a truly dominant player. Dwight is on pace to own the record for most 20/20 games in about 1.5 years. Maybe sooner as he is still developing. The top of the 20/20 list looks like this.

Years Pro	Player	Pos	20/20 Games
1	Charles Barkley	F	37
2	Hakeem Olajuwon	C	35
3	Shaquille O'Neal	C	34
4	Kevin Garnett	F	27
5	Dwight Howard	C	23

People Are As Close To Howard As AI Is To Making This shot
Considering potential, time remaining and all that jazz, there are no active players who are realistically close. Al Jefferson has 20/20 skills except in his fifth year he only has four 20/20 games to 23. Big Al is preobably the closest to compete!

By the time Howard is done wreaking his brand of havoc he could easily have 60 of these games. Unheard of in the modern era of basketball.

To put it yet another way: only 9 players have topped Dwight Howards 9 20/20 games this season, wait for it, in their entire cumulative careers. And none before they were 23.

As I write this Howard is not yet finished his fifth year of pro ball. He already has more 20/20's then this bunch in their whole lifetime. Be sure to note the number of years each player took, multiply by 'star power' and consider how in less then 5 years he's overtaken them.

Years Pro	Player	Pos	20/20 Games
16	Charles Barkley	F	37
17	Hakeem Olajuwon	C	35
16	Shaquille O'Neal	C	34
13	Kevin Garnett	F	27
5	Dwight Howard	C	23
22	Kevin Willis	F	22
11	Tim Duncan	F	19
16	Patrick Ewing	C	18
13	David Robinson	C	13
19	Karl Malone	F	12
17	Dikembe Mutombo	C	9
18	Chris Webber	F	9
12	Marcus Camby	F	7
20	Moses Malone	C	7
20	Robert Parish	C	7
7	Yao Ming	C	3
15	Alonzo Mourning	C	2
7	Arvydas Sabonis	C	2

Sabonis gets a pass. Had he played in his youth he would have torn the NBA to pieces. He was so good that the NBA would have been an entirely different era with different players winning championships.

Years Pro	Player	Pos	20/20 Games
78	Mike Dunleavy	G	1

Mike's Typical Day In The Paint
Mike Dunleavy also gets a pass cuz Mike Dunleavy is a FREAKING GUARD! Have you seen him? He's a rail. "BIG WOW" to you Mike Dunleavy!

Can I repeat again that he is only 23 years of age??? 50 or 60 20/20 games is actually Dwight's low mark. At 25 he should be sitting neatly at 40 and first place all time. Should we expect 80? 100? If his body can keep up like TD's (who had a 20/20 this year at 34) 100 20/20 career games might be his ceiling with 60-80 being his likely result.

Forget scoring. For a center points are the easy work. Focusing on boards alone Dwight is 10'th all time in 20 rebound games. Here's the list.

Rk	Player	Pos	Games
1	Dennis Rodman	F	159
2	Dikembe Mutombo	C	52
3	Charles Barkley	F	48
4	Ben Wallace	F	41
5	Hakeem Olajuwon	C	40
6	Kevin Garnett	F	36
7	Shaquille O'Neal	C	35
8	Kevin Willis	F	35
9	Marcus Camby	F	33
10	Dwight Howard	C	31

Yes! 159 More Excuses To Put Up Weird Dennis Rodman picsProps to the Worm. Maybe the most under-rated player of all time and the undisputed best pure rebounder ever. I digress: that's another column. He didn't put up points or blocks like D12.

What should be noted is that at age 23 Dwight is in 10'th place with 9 more 20 board games then Duncan and 10 more then Ewing. If he continues having 10 20 board games a season (like this one) he'll pass everyone except Rodman before he's 25 and again just entering his prime.

That's historically. Measures of domination are not against history but by outperforming peers. Why can we safely assume that baring injury he's going to continue pulling down 20's so frequently? Lets look at the list of active players who have had even 1 20 board game and is under 30. No offense to TD et al, but they're in the twilight of respective brilliant careers. This is the competition.

Rk	Player	Pos	Games
5	Dwight Howard	C	23
25	Chris Kaman	C	5
28	Dirk Nowitzki	F	5
29	Carlos Boozer	F	4
32	Al Jefferson	F	4
36	Amare StoudemireF	4
44	Yao Ming	C	3
46	Emeka Okafor	F	3
49	Andrew Bogut	C	2
50	Chris Bosh	F	2
51	Tyson Chandler	C	2
61	Zach Randolph	F	2
72	Nick Collison	F	1
87	Al Horford	C	1
90	David Lee	F	1
96	Troy Murphy	F	1

There's not a lot of competition there. Only 16 have even one 20 board game and #2 is 25'th all tim with 5 of them. When you consider that most of them are closer to 30 then 25, much less 23, and most of them have already started to break down, the list is actually shrinking and this league is Howard's. A few other views to consider.

The 15/15/5 club, active and under 30, is a small club.

Rank	Player	Pos	Games
1	entire league:	A	17
2	Dwight Howard	C	12
3	Emeka Okafor	F	6
4	Yao Ming	C	5
5	Chris Kaman	C	2
6	Andris Biedrins	C	1
7	Tyson Chandler	C	1
8	Al Horford	C	1
9	Josh Smith	F	1

Lets talk blocks. (3 times fast!) D12 vs. the league. Starting at 3/game: everyone has a game with a block or two. It goes without saying: Howard is in first place for every row until you factor in the league thing. I factored in fluke games for this one. If a guy has a solitary >5 block game in an entire season that's a statistical burp; not a peer of Dwight Howard. I included some percentages on who owns what as well.

x Blocks	Howard	Entire League	Non-Fluke Games	# Of Others	# Of Non-Fluke Others	DH's % Of Total Games	DH's % Of All x BLK Games (Non Fluke)	% Of DH Games With x BLKS	% Of 432 Who Can't	% Of 432 Who Can't Or Fluke
3	42	879	830	167	112	5	5	53	61	74
4	24	312	268	100	56	7	8	30	77	87
5	15	103	72	52	19	13	17	19	88	96
6	8	33	20	21	7	20	29	10	95	98
7	2	11	7	7	3	15	22	3	98	99
8	2	4	0	4	0	33	100	3	99	100
9	1	1	0	1	0	50	n/a	1	100	100
10	1	0	0	0	0	100	n/a	1	100	100

I'm not sure what is more astounding considering any position is totally capable of having a few blocks in a game; that 5%/8% of all 3/4 block games or 30% of all 6 or more block games (non-fluke) in a league of 432 players are his.

x Boards	Howard	Entire League	Non-Fluke Games	# Others	# Non-Fluke Others	DH's % Of All x-Board Games	DH's % Of All x-Board Games(Non-Fluke)	% Of DH Games With x BLKS	% of 432 Who Can't	% of 432 Who Can't Or Fluke
10	63	2041	2005	200	170	3	3	80	54	61
11	59	1440	1379	186	130	4	4	75	57	70
12	55	990	942	147	99	5	6	70	66	77
13	51	679	645	117	83	7	7	65	73	81
14	45	435	401	95	61	9	10	57	78	86
15	34	284	259	75	50	11	12	43	88	83
16	23	169	145	54	30	12	14	29	88	93
17	19	118	100	42	24	14	16	24	90	94
18	17	75	57	36	17	18	23	22	92	96
19	14	45	28	26	9	24	33	18	94	98
20	10	27	16	18	7	27	38	13	96	98
21	6	13	7	9	3	32	46	8	98	99
22	3	9	3	7	1	25	50	4	98	99.7
23	2	5	3	2	1	29	40	3	100	99.7

Again, whats most impressive? He's responsible for almost 40% of the non-fluke 20 board games and 46% of the non-fluke 21+ board games or that half the league is not even capable of having one 10 board game while Howard has 63 of them. That's a 75% chance every night. Maybe its a nearly 60% chance he pulls down 14 boards, every, single, night. There is no player like this today. There are very few players like this in the past. Once Dwight Howard actually reaches his prime there will be no player in history like this.

Last point. Lets consider something other then stats. In the ESPN voting page I linked to one of the writers said "Dwight needs to improve at the offensive end. 20 ppg won't win MVP." Being a good offensive player is not always about putting the ball through the hoop and its not always about being the player to have the ball right before another player scores.

Dwight's presence inside demands a constant double team/team defensive strategy. Opponents collapse on Dwight which gets easy open looks for others. Go inside, the defense collapses, pass back out and swing it to the weak side for a great look. That IS the Magic's offense. Anyone paying attention when watching realizes that Howard is involved in nearly every single scoring play. Free looks and open lanes for everyone aboud and thats because of him... not Hedo and Lewis.

He's been so effective he made perennial laughing stock Jameer Nelson an all-star. The fact he scores 20 PPG only indicates his willing attitude to work within the structure of the offense to create the best opportunity to score points instead of getting his. He's happy playing for 59 wins despite downgrading his point (and losing his bench point) then for 50 and 30 PPG.

Howard is ranked 7'th or 8'th on mock MVP ballots behind players like Billups, Kobe, Pierce and Brandon Roy. I challenge anyone doing so to look at these numbers and honestly tell me he's not top 3. Dwight is unmistakeably on a historical tear starting this season and ending approximately 5-10 years later when micro fractured knees meet kryptonite edged scalpels. If they hold off till then he'll also shatter nearly every important stat for a big man in the modern era of basketball. In many cases, doubling the current all time mark. The Magic have the best defense in the league and not because #12 is really entertaining in the dunk contests. Its time for people to take notice. Superman has landed.

Why The Pistons Have Been Robbed

An interesting thing has happened recently that has changed the legacy of the game. Towards the end of the 90's the talent in the NBA was getting old and defenses were getting tougher. Ramping up the defense has always been a way for less athletic teams to win. This culminated in 2003 when the Detroit Pistons nearly swept the Lakers in the finals and affirmed themselves as an elite team if not the greatest defensive team in history.

Now since that time, they've made the finals once (not deserving, due to a Wade shoulder injury, I'll add) and the east finals every single year. Hard to say they've not done well. Right? Wrong. The Pistons have been tagged as a lazy team, or an over confident/arrogant team. But realistically, they should have multiple more rings and be vaunted as the best team since MJ's Bulls as well as one of the best of all time.

Why you ask? The league responded to the Pistons winning the championship with rules that directly reduced the effectiveness of their style of play. They also emphasized the enforcement of previous rules meant to weaken defenses to stop teams like Detroit from having success. This has also resulted in the improvement of perimeter players like Tony Parker, Kobe, Bron to appear to be that much better players then their elders. Check it out.

Heres a site with all the rule changes the nba made over the years. Take a look at the last few years (post Jordan years you'll note).

http://www.nba.com/analysis/rules_history.html

They've been making it much, much easier for guards to score which has really hyped how 'good' a lot of today's guards are. Tony Parker (and I hate to include Nash) really benefited from these... a lot. The rules were changed over years and not all at once so even hard core ball fans didn't really take notice.

Here are a few highlights.

2001-02
• Illegal defense guidelines will be eliminated in their entirety.

• A new defensive three-second rule will prohibit a defensive player from remaining in the lane for more than three consecutive seconds without closely guarding an offensive player.

• During 20-second timeouts in the last two minutes of the fourth period and/or any overtime period there are unlimited substitutions.
Previously the team calling the timeout could substitute one player. The other team could substitute only if the team calling timeout substituted.

• If a player is fouled when he has a clear-path-to-the-basket, he gets one free throw and his team gets possession of the ball at midcourt.
Previously, the player received two free throws.

• On the weakside, defenders must remain on the weakside outside the paint unless (i) they are double-teaming the ball, (ii) picking up a free cutter or (iii) closely guarding an offensive player.

It sounds counter-intuitive to say zones increase scoring, but quick guards who can shoot cut a zone to pieces, even more so when your big has to leave the paint which defeats the entire purpose of the zone: as a player gets closer to the hole the defense always gets bigger and stronger. Not as you get closer the biggest defender has to move in and out of position. Help defenders on the weak side are no longer even allowed in the painted area greatly reducing their ability to grab rebounds and clog the lane.

By adding unlimited substitutions it also allows coaches to sub in players and run a quicker team who won't tire out the same way they run shifts in hockey, but only in the last two minutes. This means that for 98% of the game you can't sub in and out so your players have to pace themselves. In the last two minutes you can run your quick small guards like crazy, get them out and rotate them as much as you want creating the illusion of players overcoming defenses at the end of the game.

By adding a clear path rule you could no longer foul when a player beats you in the open court to prevent an automatic two points as they will keep possession. You saw this move constantly in the 90's and its got to account for a few points change in differential each game. All this made it much harder to win with defense.

Against these changes they still won the title with hard nosed defense. In a direct response the NBA rules committee made it even easier to score, harder to defend and thus harder for the Pistons to win. The next season, the NBA made these small changes on paper.

2004-05
• New rules were introduced to curtail hand-checking, clarify blocking fouls and call defensive three seconds to open up the game.

In practice they however they changed reality instructing the refs to start calling these things MUCH more frequently. The result: a dramatic explosion in scoring, smaller guards becoming incredibly effective and an increasingly difficult league to defend.

They sat a couple years on that and then helped small quick guards like Tony Parker by making defensive 3 second calls even easier to whistle... this was the first year Nash's style started to dominate the NBA... You'll also remember that this is 'precisely' when guards like Arenas/Wade/Nash/Barbosa started scoring points like crazy. This opened that strong side high screen to the weak side curl that Lebron does all the time and was so evident when he had his historic playoff game with the Pistons. A few years previous and Bron would not have such clear lanes to the hoop. He could still do it, but its a lot easier when Ben Wallace is out of position when he was starting his drive.

Super dominant bigs like Duncan/Shaq/Wallace also started looking less effective. It makes sense too: on the defensive end guards were killing them. Rail thin agile bigs like Amare/Marion/Josh Smith started to look like they were just better since they could move back into position more quickly. Camby's numbers went way up at the end of his career and seemed so much more effective then in his prime to the point where he won DPOY. For the first time, ever (I believe), a guard (Tony Parker) led the league in points in the paint.

By 2006 the Pistons had clearly lost a series to Lebron specifically due to the rule changes and appeared very weak. They didn't even deserve to make the finals. An injury to another quick perimeter guard, Dwayne Wade, gave them the series vs Miami. Karma's a bitch though: nope, not who you think in SA. TD was quite quiet. The Pistons were able to push it to 7 games but it was two perimeter players under new rules who dominated them, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker. Not to be out done the NBA could not stand the Pistons/Spurs finals matchup of the two best defensive teams and brought in more rules.

2006-07
• Free substitution is permitted during all 20-second timeouts.
• On a clear-path-to-the-basket foul, the team that is fouled is awarded two free throw attempt and the ball on the sideline.

The substitution rule makes basketball more like hockey so super quick guards could jump on the court, run it out, then jump off got updated to cover entire games. You could see Barbosa and phoenix benefited a lot from this. Dantoni knew if they ran up the score the opponents would call time. Then he could and used everyone on his bench to switch up his players constantly. Kudos to him for realizing the advantages the new rules produced. They also updated the clear path rule to punish defenses for grabbing a player on the break even more.

They missed a rule change on that page too. After they changed all the perimeter hand check/blocking fouls players were complaining about getting whistled for ticky tack foul that had never been called in the history of the league. Basketball is a contact sport but on the pro level this has changed. It was blowing the NBA's campaign (and hurt their image) that the talent level was going through the roof cuz the players were always pissed off.

Being most image conscious and paranoid organization I can thing of, the NBA brought in a 0-tolerance policy that would t up a player for 'any' complaints about calls, and suspend them a game for every T they got past 14, even in playoff games. This was not intentional, but within the theme, it affected Rasheed Wallace and the Pistons more then any other team.

I do think the new rules improved the game. A high scoring seven seconds or less style is much me exciting to watch then the aforementioned Pistons/Spurs series. What is problematic though is a tarnished legacy of pro basketball. If MJ played today he would dominate these defenses unlike any player today but ignorant Kobe fans claim 81 points means Kobe is the best in history. Likewise fantastic and great defensive teams like the 01-09 Pistons will never be able to be compared to their late 80's counterparts because the game has changed without people noticing so this version of the Pistons gets slagged.

The irony: it was a direct reaction to Detroit winning a title in the 04 finals that scared the NBA into the new rules. Changing the rules to account for your success is the greatest compliment that can be served. It means you are the best. So good its unfair to others. Wilt had many rules changed for him in the same way. But its A little back handed. After having the rules changed the Piston's have been punked by various writers, fans and players.

The reality? Tough defense on the perimeter (Billups/Rip/Tay) with great enforcers at the rim (Wallaces) were about to dominate the post Jordan era as the best defensive team of all time. Realistically they might have won 3 or 4 more straight when you consider it may have been Vets like KG signing with the proven winner instead of Boston. But the NBA is not very good at marketing defense. They wanted the next Jordan. Since new Jordan wasn't coming they changed the rules to try and create one. The Pistons changed their style and still made the finals but their team was built to play by different rules and fell short.

What should be? This Pistons team should been a dynasty. A hall of fame team credited with one championship and a label of arrogant underachievers. Its a great what if but seems that had the NBA not plotted directly against defense and indirectly against Detroit they'd have at least 2-3 championships and 2-3 more finals appearances cementing them as 'the' post Jordan team and team of the new millennium.

Conversely, the Spurs and Duncan, who are that team, would probably have lost vs the Pistons in 05 and faced the Pistons in 07 for a much tougher finals matchup (they killed the Eric Snow Cavs). If they lose that series, its Duncan and the Spurs who are underachievers and teams will say "they feel they can just turn it on and off." The Pistons will have 3-4 championships in 5 years and the Spurs won't have won since David Robinson was there which would lead people to say Timmy could never win without him.

Its is a what-if. Maybe it does not go that way. But its quite evident that the rules didn't lower the ceiling of this team but took them down from potential they had already fully realized. The rule changes redistributed the wealth of credibility in the NBA and that should be duly noted. Look at the 10 game stretch on the right. They held 5 straight teams under 70 points and 10 straight under 85. Defensively you don't get higher. They went on to destroy the Laker marketing machine of 4 HOF players on one team and as I've stated the NBA knew something had to be done. It can't market scorers and super star players when a real team playing together can this effectively shut them down.

Hey, I'm honest, I'll take Bron and Wade instead. Entertaining as hell and I watch to be entertained. I just think it should be noted that the greatness of nearly every star today owe a huge chunk of their games and notoriety to Wallace, Wallace, Billups, Hamilton, Prince and Larry Brown. One of the greatest teams to ever play basketball.