Dirk is Great, But Let's Take it Easy

The Dallas Mavericks are champions of the basketball world! They defeated the evil Miami Heat in 6 games to take the 2011 title on Miami's own floor! Dirk Nowtizki led a team of role players against a team with 2 and a half superstars and came out victorious! Dirk is the best scorer in the league and the best closer in the league! He should have been the league MVP! He's a top 15 player of all time!

Wait... what?

Are people listening to what they are saying? Does that last bit sound right? Let's look into it.

Before the playoffs if you were to take a poll of reasonably educated NBA fans where would Dirk rank? I personally would probably have him between 25 and 30, and I think the general population would probably have him around there or possibly slightly lower. Now what did he do in the playoffs to warrant the huge bump in the rankings...

He posted a PER of 25.2. A very good mark to be sure, a full 1.5 points better than Lebron James, and only 1.1 below Dwyane Wade. But wait, was this PER (which does a decent job of summarizing offensive production while factoring in pace and minutes played) affecting the huge jump in how people ranked him? I don't think so. He topped his 25.2 mark in 5 previous playoffs, with marks of 27.5, 26.8, 26.3, 28.4, and 28.3 in '04, '06, '08, '09, and '10 respectively. Now with the exception of 2006 (reached finals, 23 games total) and 2009 (second round, 10 games total), the samples were all rather small, but it looks from that data that Dirk did not exactly reach some new level in these playoffs. In fact, Dirk significantly outperformed this PER's in each of the past 2 years, so we shouldn't have been surprised by how he played this postseason. For the record Dirk also had 4 years where he had a PER higher than 25.2 in the regular season, so we have seen him play at this level for quite some time.

Now of course, PER isn't the all determining stat. So let's look at some other numbers. Dirk posted a stellar TS% of 60.9% in the playoffs, largely due to an absurd 175/186 performance from the free throw line. However, Dirk significantly outperformed that mark in the previous 2 playoffs, with marks of 63.5% and 64.3%. He had a reasonable EFG% of 51.4%, but once again he achieved higher marks the previous 2 years, and also in 2003. So yes Dirk definitely shot better than he normally has in the playoffs in his career, but he actually took a step backward from recent playoffs.

What about raw numbers? His 27.7 points per game was the second best mark of his career, topped only by his 28.4 in 2002. So good for him. However his 8.1 rebounds per game tied for the lowest mark in his career, and was far below his career playoff rebounding average of 10.4. Now some of that is clearly due to finally having a solid rebounding center in Chandler beside him, but it's still not an overly impressive performance. Also, despite having probably the best shooting supporting cast of his career, he averaged only 2.5 assists per game, which is right around his career playoff average, and worse than his numbers in his previous 3 playoffs.

Now of course people will say “Who cares how great he was playing in the first round in past years, it's all about what you do in the finals!”. Alright then, let's look at the finals. 26 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2 assists, under a block and a steal, 41.6% from the field, 36.8% from 3, almost 3 turnovers per game. What about those numbers screams “Oh my god Dirk is amazing!”?. Nothing. Now he was truly special from the free throw line, shooting 45 for 46. He grabbed only 2 offensive rebounds all series, compared to 14 by teammate Shawn Marion and 24 by Tyson Chandler. Heck Barea doubled his offensive rebound output. And yes, he closed some games out, namely game 6, when he went 5-6 in the last quarter to seal the ring, but people will conveniently ignore that Terry carried the Mavs for the first 3 quarters of the biggest game of the year while Dirk was busy going 4-21. Really, Dirk was the deserving Finals MVP, but was he even the best player, with Wade going for 26.5/7/5.2 with 1.5 steals, 1.5 blocks on a stellar 55% shooting while averaging slightly fewer turnovers and having a much bigger defensive impact? I don't think so.

Now, while coming up huge in the finals would be nice, it's not really necessary. Dirk's first 3 rounds were truly spectacular at times. The number of comebacks he led was astounding. His shooting in game 1 of the WCF was legendary. He came up clutch time and time again in these playoffs, as he has done for years. If there is one reason that people think so much more highly of Dirk, it's because this postseason helped erase the (entirely false) notion that he is a choker.

And this leads to the next problem; our society's tendency to associate the success of a team with the performance of the individual. For Dirk, a championship validates every thing he has worked hard for, it vanquishes the demons left over from that horrible loss in '06. For us, a championship validates nothing. Or at least, that's how it should be. Dirk didn't win the title, the Mavericks did. Was Dirk extremely important? Of course he was. But there is no way they win the series without the enormous contributions of Jason Terry (who probably hit more clutch shots than Dirk in the finals), Tyson Chandler (who seemed to outrebound the entire Miami team at times), Jason Kidd (who hit so many huge threes at the most crucial times), Shawn Marion (who forced the league's best player to have his worst series in years), JJ Barea (who carved up Miami's D despite all logic that would tell us that's impossible), Deshawn Stevenson and more. Heck Brian Cardinal was huge in game 6. So yes Dirk was huge, and he, along with his teammates, earned this title. But here's the ridiculous logic people use. Dirk played pretty well in the finals, he got great help, and they win, so now Dirk is a true champion, a winner, and all those other great things. This is what happened. Now suppose Dirk plays at the same level, but now suppose Bosh shot 7-16 instead of 4-16 in game 2, which we all know he was fully capable of doing since he was missing open shots, and now game 2 is a 4 point win for Miami instead of a 2 point win for Dallas. Now suppose Terry doesn't catch fire in the first half of game 6. With Dirk shooting 1-12 the Mavs are probably in a 10 or 15 point hole and might never recover. And just like that, the Larry O'Brien trophy is headed East.

Now obviously that is a purely hypothetical situation, and far from reality. But did Dirk's impact on the game change in either scenario? No, it did not. Yet the situation changed completely, and possibly the winner of the series. Yet one scenario results in Dirk being thought of as a clutch hero and the other as an unreliable choker? I fail to see the logic behind that reasoning.

It's a flaw in our general way of thinking, and the media doesn't help. What sounds like a better story? “Dirk has a solid series as Mavs beat the Heat”, or “Dirk leads Mavs over Big 3 and cements his legacy”? It's not a contest, the second sounds better, and is also a much easier story to write. In today's world stories must be catchy, and to do that writers often tend to produce material that is usually exaggerated, and frankly quite often wrong.

So those statements at the beginning of the post (Dirk is the best scorer in the league and the best closer in the league! He should have been the league MVP! He's a top 15 player of all time!), are all statements I have heard several times since the Mavericks won the title. Let's quickly examine each.

First off, best scorer. Per 36 minutes he average 24 points on a True Shooting Percentage of 61.2%.. Very good numbers. He does have a case for this one, although Durant, Melo (the most versatile scorer), and Lebron all have a good argument as well.

Best closer? I think he probably wins this one. There are other players with an argument, but when you consider the stats, and look at how dominant Dallas becomes down the stretch because of his play, I'm not sure anyone beats him out, at least not for this year.

League MVP? Now this is where is starts getting silly. Dirk was not the league MVP. Granted, he probably deserved better than the 6^th place finish he got. I feel he was certainly more valuable than Kobe, and probably more so than Durant too. But no he was not the league MVP. He did not mean more to his team this year than Dwight Howard or Lebron James, both of whom deserved it more than Derrick Rose, but that's an argument that has been addressed many times (for the record I think Dwight was the MVP). Dirk had a very good season, and I'm not a “stats tell the whole story” guy by any stretch, but 23 points and 7 rebounds per game with average defense does not an MVP make when Dwight is averaging 23 and 14 on 60% shooting with incredible defense, or when Lebron is being... well Lebron. Dirk had a very good regular season, and a great playoffs, but this is just a case of people placing too much value on the results of the playoffs. Dirk was not the regular season MVP.

And finally... Dirk is a top 15 player of all time.

Wait...

Hold up...

Are you serious?

WHERE DID THIS COME FROM?

Look I'm a Dirk fan, I've been one since around 2001. I defended his performance against the Warriors in 2007. I defended him when people said he was mentally or physically soft, when the reality was that getting beat by the Spurs isn't something that warrants excuses. I defended him when people said his defense was horrible, or that he was a choker...

But I will not defend this. Dirk is not a top 15 all time player. He's great, but here's a quick list (in no real order).

MJ, Magic, Bird, Kareem, Wilt, Russell, Duncan, Oscar, West, Baylor, Olajuwon, Garnett, Shaq, Kobe, Moses, Barkley, Erving, Havlicek Stockton, Isiah.

That's 20, quite easily. Even if you don't agree with all 20, there are numerous other arguable ones, such as Karl Malone, Pippen, Walton, Iverson, Nash, Pettit, Reed, Ewing, Drexler, Mikan, Robinson, Kidd, Cousy, and screw it, Lebron. Even if you throw out the old guys because, let's face it, they just weren't as good at basketball, there are still easily 15 guys who are better than Dirk. And you know what, there's more that I'm forgetting.

Dirk is terrific, he's a transcendent scorer, a dependable clutch player, and by all accounts a beloved teammate. But he lacks certain things that most of those players in that upper echelon possess, such as a dominant impact on the defensive end. Or some other skill to fall back on when his shot isn't falling (in game 6, when he was busy going 4-21 through 3 quarters, what else was Dirk doing to try to impact the game? Not a whole lot). He's not a great rebounder for his size (I don't care how far away he is from the basket during the offense, no 7 footer should only grab 2 offensive rebounds in a 6 game series). He's an incredible player, but to get into that top 15 or so players of all time, you need to be nearly perfect. Dirk is not.

It will calm down in a few years. People will look back on this year's playoffs, and they will remember that Dirk was consistently cool under pressure, that he delivered when they needed him, that he submitted a few truly memorable performances, and that he found redemption. And we will think back, and compare it to the other great runs in history, and realize that while Dirk was special, in the grand scheme of things it wasn't as magical as it seems in the moment. And nobody except the most die hard of Dirk fans will still be making these ridiculous claims.

Unless of course, he does it again. And if there's one thing we've learned in these playoffs, it's that Dirk is fully capable of proving people wrong.

What Not To Tweet: By Paul Pierce

Pierce Needs To Be Careful Next 
Time He Puts His Fingers On His Bird

Those are the ominous words tweeted by Paul Pierce after the Boston Celtics beat the Miami Heat twice to start their 2010-2011 season. I smelled trouble. People jumped right on the hate wagon and thought it was 'so hilarious.' I could not understand for the life of me why Paul Pierce wanted to start a feud with the best player alive or why he chose open and dis-respectful mocking to publicly fire shots at Lebron.

Not just a shot at Lebron. Also an indirect hit on the SS Wade as their team had been dealing with intense hate all summer. Did he forget that Wade is arguably the second best player alive: the same rules apply? The mud slung in the Heat's general direction from fans and the media was unprecedented. And Pierce wanted to join in? I have a few questions I'd like to ask...

Why?

Why kick a fellow player who's down? Every word of Lebron's was being dissected under a media scalpel, a knife Pierce knows well. There's a code most players seem to follow (and/or should follow) that stipulates NBA players and media members are on opposite teams. You shouldn't join in with your opponent to attack one of your own.

How Do You Gut Punch A Man Like This?
He Has A Car Bed

Therein lies the irony. Pierce is all too familiar with negative press. Years at the helm of a laughing stock in Boston put him on the receiving end of scorn, blame and shame. Pierce isn't better then Lebron either. He demanded a trade that got pre-empted by the arrival of Ray Allen and KG. The difference was the Cavs had destroyed their cap and lacked assets, could not right the ship and lost their star player.

So little class. A stomach punch in the midst of the messiest sports divorce in history... while smugly happily married after years on the rocks? Lebron was emotionally down so Pierce pushed his face in the dirt. My father taught me at a young age, mocking others hardship is classless.

That's the court of human decency. This is not Dr. Phil. So lets examine this on the court of hoop.

Did Pierce Believe He Was In Their Heads?

Why in Red's name would you want to take a cheap shot like this at the best player in the world? Someone who is by all counts flat out better at the game then you are. Why take a cheap shot at the second best player in the world and best friend on his team? Not even to mention, take a cheap shot at one of the best power forwards in the league who's also on that team.

Wade/James have a history of their seasons ending to a massively stacked Celtics team. It's been amplified by a massive fall from grace. Both James and Wade were media darlings. James especially had become a media villain. The fuel has been set all around these two teams. Why give Lebron a match? Why go out of your way to provide extra motivation to a guy who's so damn good and has so much to prove? It's like teasing a ravenous dog with a pork chop.

They had the talent to beat Miami. They didn't have the right attitude. Lebron had the right attitude though, and he used it to eviscerate them out of the series in 5 games. Over-confidence in your own ability, and not respecting your opponent is always a recipe for disaster. It makes arrogance pie. If Pierce really did think he was in their heads, it back fired in the grandest of fashion.

Did The Britches Fit?

The FMVP Tropy: Something Else That Didn't Fit

Take a look at those first two games. Was this over-confidence justified? Did Pierce put on a spectacular show? He was mostly a spot up shooter and that had a lot to do with Lebron's smothering D.

In game 1, of his 4 makes, 3 were 3 pointers. Rondo dominated with 17 dimes and Ray Allen went 5/8 from 3. Game 2 was very much a repeat. Pierce scored 6 more points. Pierce was still totally unable to prevent Lebron from a 35 point triple double (-1 dime) and BBQing the Celtics 20 point lead on a 4'th quarter spit for the second time.

Despite the Celtics being up 20 points for the vast majority of both games, Bosh playing terribly, Wade playing hurt and being invisible, despite all these things the Heat were down by a mere basket with less then a minute left. Twice. Lebron took over, he had an answer for Rondo and slowed him down. The Celtics had no answer for James. So why when you were lucky to hang on twice would you want to slap a guy like that in the face once?

Did The Tweet Cost The Celtics?

Close To PP: Consider This
Motivational Gift For Next Season

People talk about the Perkins trade as being the turning point in the Celtics season... perhaps their last chance to win another championship. I don't think this is true. No one will talk about it, but it was the tweet. Not merely 140 charterers but everything each letter represented in their approach to this season and the new look Heat.

Upon reading Pierce's tweet I thought the Celtics were in trouble. In sports you can often see story arcs taking off long before they gain altitude. What goes up, must come down, and Paul Pierce threw his blatant mockery as high as he could for the world to see. While he was looking up at it, he participated in a 7 game series with the Heat, and it landed right back in his face at the end of game 5.

The true turning point came long before the trade deadline. It came after game 9 of 82. Pierce thought he could make some headlines at Lebron's expense and took a cheap shot. Instead of a few laughs, he made it personal and lacked the talent to compete on that level. Mid-thirties post-prime players should all learn not to make it personal with guys in their prime.

I'm sure Pierce soon forgot about it as he moved on to Memphis. I can assure you, Lebron did not forget. I'm sure he thought about it repeatedly while practising his jumpers and lifting weights. Something in me knew the Celtics weren't going to win when I read the missive. I would not be surprised if the tweet is taped to a mirror in the Heat locker room. Realistically, I'd be surprised if it's not. And that's The Truth.

Rosey Picture? Is Derrick Rose For MVP Hype?

First Things First, No Matter
What My Conclusion  Is, Derrick
Rose Is A Freakishly Talented Player

I hate to burst the bubble here, but things have changed regarding how people talk about the Bulls of late. For years it was about their dire need of inside scoring. They were a .500 team.

When Boozer was out to start the season, they had a 9-6 record and very much resembled the .500 team they've been for two years. Since they've gone 25-9 behind a much more balanced inside/outside attack. Now the story I'm hearing has changed as well. Now that they are beating good teams it's all due to Derrick Rose, the league MVP?

They've played Portland, Utah, Dallas Twice, MIA, Bos twice , LAL, OKC, ORL twice. That's 10 solid games with Boozer. The difference from pre-Boozer is instead of losing those games they've won most of them going 7-3 vs just good teams. That's before you consider that one each of the Bos/Orl games was Boozer's first and second game of the year. And I'm not even counting teams like Memphis and Phoenix who they beat with winning records.

Speaking of Portland, if we want to award the MVP to a player who's stepped up to lead his team through injuries, then Lamarcus Aldridge is undoubtedly this year's MVP. It's not even close. But Bulls fans are making that argument for Rose, who's obviously not been hampered by injuries on the Bulls like LA on Portland. Here are a few more arguments:

Rose carried the team when Boozer was hurt at the beginning of the year when they had a crazy tough schedule.

This winning did not start till Carlos Boozer came in to provide the inside scoring they've so famously lacked. I love Noah. Not a Boozer fan. I have to admit though, he's an upgrade. Especially offensively. The hype is ceaseless though... lets check it out:

Boozer had his first game on Dec. 1. At that point the Bulls were 9-6. They had 3 wins vs winning teams. Was this because of Rose?

1. Dallas: They held the Mavs to 83 points. Rose had 22 points on 32% shooting and 6 dimes. Noah had a 10/17 and Taj Gibson a 17/18. This was a defence oriented win led by their big men.

2. Denver: Rose had 18/6 on 33% shooting. But again, Noah had a 19 board double double, they held them to 92 points, and won by a basket.

3. Portland: Rose had a good game, 16/13, but this was Deng's night. When he shot 74% and scored 40 points leading them to the win.

Keep In Mind, I Have Never Liked This Douche

Before Boozer they were beating bad teams and getting beaten by good teams. Upgrade Noah to a 20/10 guy who demands a double team and the result is "it's Rose keeping his team in it" rather then oh yea, that huge signing we made this summer that filled a hole that kept us playing .500 ball for 3 straight years... yea, that worked.

Talking up Rose for work vs the Cavs and Kings of the league is weak for an MVP argument. Even if Boozer has not been playing out of his mind, it balances the team offensively. Shooters stretch the floor for bigs, and vice versa, bigs collapse defences to create open shots/lanes for shooters/slashers. Even when you look at their quality wins after Boozer started playing, they aren't getting them because of Rose. They're winning because of their D.

Vs. LA, 84. OKC, 90. BOS, 79. Mavs 77l. ORL, 90. Lets look into that argument next.

Derick Rose has led the Bulls to wins over every elite team in the league!

Sounds fantastic. But you've got to look closer.

Reason 1 The Bulls Are Winning

At the All Star break a reasonable elite cut off looks to be 35 wins. That makes the elite NBA teams Miami, Orlando, Seattle, San Antonio, LA, Dallas and Boston. This makes sense on paper and practice. So lets look at the production.

Vs elite teams Rose shoots a pretty poor 42% to score 26 ppg. His dimes dip considerably to just over 7. And did they beat elite teams? They've also lost to almost all of them as well. In those losses and wins Rose doesn't change and shoots 42%. In Losses he averages 24 points. In wins about 27 points. So an extra basket and a half. Is this leading the Bulls in these wins over great teams? The difference of a basket and a half?

No. Defence is. A non-factor in Rose's game. Vs Elite teams the Bulls are holding opponents to an average of 94 PPG. In their losses, 104.66 points. In their wins they're crushing the competition with 87.25 points allowed. A difference of 20 PPG? Yes, that's a leading factor to wins.

Reason #2 (and 1) The Bulls Are Winning

In wins Rose only has a single game with more then 10 assists vs Orlando. He had 22/10, but they held the Magic to 78 points. Consider Rose's 11 point, 23% shooting win over the Thunder. Rose is their best player, but they are winning with defence if he plays well or not. In fact, the Bulls have a 9-1 record in Rose's 10 worst shooting games, all of them under 35%.

That's smoke and mirrors though. Are these 'elite' wins? They look like it in the schedule. But a cursory look at those 8 wins shows it's obvious the Bulls didn't actually best elite teams. I guess they were wearing elite jerseys, sure, but they came down to their level of the Bulls competition and not the reverse. Observe:

Their lone win vs Boston came when KG AND Perkins were out.

Their lone win over the Heat came when Lebron was out. They still only beat them by 3 points.

They beat Dallas once with no Butler and a hobbled Dirk who rushed back and was visibly limping on the court. It wasn't Rose's 22/6 that led them in their other Dallas win but 10/17 from Noah and a 17/18 from Taj Gibson as previously discussed.

Their lone win vs the Thunder came on an 11 point, 23% shooting stinker from Rose.

Their win over the Lakers was decent but a total team effort. LA had just lost 4 straight to the Jazz, Pacers, Griz and Rockets the week before... I'm not sure what that means but I watched that game, and LA was looking anything but elite while being crushed by the Bulls D.

The win over the Magic Rose had 12 dimes, but 22 points on 28% shooting... good but not amazing.

Scratch That, The #1 Reason The Bulls
Are Winning Is 'Suited Up' In This Pic All Right

And then the Spurs win, when Rose positively dominated. Don't want to take anything away from a gifted player after all whom I'm huge on. Just low on hype.

Conclusion: Rose has 'led' them to wins over an elite team for sure, once, on a career night. Pretending this is regular is disingenuous. If he keeps up last night for the rest of the season, by all means, give that kid the MVP. As yet though he has not earned it vs the best teams in the NBA. And since we brought up D so much, how did I get through this whole paragraph without giving massive credit to Tom Thibiedeau, who's truly at the heart of the Bulls league and 'team leading' D?

Derick Rose is playing at a higher level then anyone in the league

Rose just had his first 40 point game of his career. In comparison, LeBron James has 3 40 point games this season and one 50 point game. As the PG Rose's best passing game is 14, once. Same as Lebron from the 3. Rose has 15 double digit dime games but he's also the point guard. Lebron has 10. Rose has 17 games shooting over 50%. Bron has 24.

How Bulls Fans Percieved The Rose/James
Argument Before The Decision

With no dominant big men the Heat are the league's 4'th best defensive team. Lebron's offensive impact is also worth noting as the Heat are the 4'th best offensive team He's at the center of everything they run on both ends. This is compared to Rose, running the 19'th 'best' offence in the league... just ahead of the Pistons and Kings depending on the day.

It's not his play giving them a shot like an MVP's play should. It's his inefficiency at the point that's actually stagnating their offence. Forcing low percentage attempts for himself instead of creating easy baskets for his team mates is reflected in his low FG% and assists .

Lebron vs Rose comes down to facts. It's factual that Lebron is out producing Derrick Rose. It's factual that Lebron is lifting the Heat on both ends of the court to an elite level. It's factual that the Bulls are elite at the one thing Rose does not do well, and terrible at the one thing he does do well. Conclusion: Lebron is drastically more valuable to his team.

Lets attempt a Dwight comparison. He seems to get overlooked yearly. With terrible defensive players Orlando is the third best defensive team in the league. Rose's elite offensive numbers. 13 30 + games. 1 40+ game. 15 10 dimes games. 17 games shooting over 50%.

Dwight. A ridiculous 5 20+ rebound games. 22 15 board games. 47 10 board games. 4 5 block games. 1 40 point game. 10 30 point games.47 games shooting over 50%.

I know, it's not fair to compare a center and a PG. But to me, it's aparant that Dwight's impact on D, as well as O, is just above Rose's. He has only shot under 50% in 8 games out of 55. The Magic field crappy defensive players who Howard lifts to elite defensive status.

Rose vs Howard. Fact:The Bulls are a crappy offensive team with, uh... well... pretty freaking elite offensive players. (more on this in a bit). Fact: Rose is not lifting the team offensively because even with his high PPG, they are still nothing but below average offensively. Fact: Dwight Howard makes the Magic good at everything because he's actually the league's MVP. Okay, not a fact, but pretty much.

The Bulls would be nothing, a lottery team, without Derick Rose

Oh, but Rose is scoring lots of points! Sure, but since he's only affecting offence how far would they fall? The better question: how far could they fall? Past the hapless Pistons, who rank two spots down from the Bulls? Detroit is conducting a t-mac experiment at point. Their best scoring big man is Chris Wilcox. Their best rebounder is Greg Monroe. Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, their 'big signings' are not even starting. Rip Hamilton is not even playing. Why? Because the team has no clue how to score or what it's doing. Noah, Boozer and Deng are arguably the best front line in basketball. Taj Gibson is a 'great' backup who can take over games and is coming into his own. Kyle Korver last season... wait a minute now. This gets it's own paragraph.

Kyle Korver just posted the best 3 point percentage in league history last season. 53.6%.

Without Rose this team would still be amazing on D, and could not possibly be that much worse on O. Why? Because Rose doesn't really make them much better on Offense. The reality that scoring loads of points on 44% shooting is not efficient play.

With an average point guard running the offence the Bulls are still better then the Pistons and Kings. They don't have Luol Dengs ripping off 40 points in huge games with elite D. I see no one capable of multiple 15+ board games like both Noah, Boozer AND Gibson have had this season. I don't see any history leading shooters coming off the bench. Noah, their offensive liability, still shoots over 50% for 14 PPG. What I do see is a sneaky stacked team that is a lock for the playoffs with their league leading defence whether Rose is there or not.

I must be mistaken though, because this is the response I get from this point:

You must not be watching the Bulls, if you did, it would be obvious Rose is their best player and takes all the big shots

On the contrary, I am watching the Bulls, and apparently people making this argument are only watching Derrick Rose. Rose is their best offensive player. I could even see how Rose is their best overall player. He's totally the future of the franchise. But he's not the MVP now. Not because of this point.

How do I know? Because of Shawn Marion.

How does Marion prove anything about Derrick Rose? Simple. Marion is a perfect foil to Rose to test the logic of the above statement for validity. In 2007 the Suns were the best team in basketball. There was no doubt this was because they were the most potent offensive team in the league. They had a brilliant play maker with a brilliant offensive coach in a brilliant offensive system.

There was no doubt that Marion was their most versatile and best defensive player. There was no doubt that he was their go to guy on any and all big stops in games. Except the Suns stank on defence. (except not as bad as the Bulls on offence. The Suns were above average ranked 13'th on D while the Bulls are ranked 19'th on O). Marion came 4'th in DPOY voting that year. I'm not sure, but I don't think anyone else on that team has ever received even a single vote for DPOY.

I'm sure you've figured out why this argument stinks. Offence is flashy and sexy but it's not worth more then defence. Being the best at something a team that wins is terrible at does not make you an MVP just because the things you're good at make weekly top 10's. They get you all star selections, and that's very fair, but the MVP is about winning: sports centre is not.

The defensive drop off between Marion and the rest of the Suns is much more drastic then offensive equivalent between Rose and the Bulls. This is self-evident. Shawn Marion on the Suns is vice versa mirror of Rose on the Bulls. Except Marion was way better on O (3'rd on the team) then Rose is on D (5'th or 6'th). Also self-evident: there is no effing way Shawn Marion was the 2007 Suns, or, league MVP.

The only way this argument validly suggests Rose is the league MVP is if you:

1. Think Marion was the 2007 league, or hell, just team MVP on the Suns.

2. Think that offence is more 'valuable' then defence.

In both scenarios you've got a completely impossible task on your hands because both assertions 1 and 2 are categorically ridiculous. Yes, Rose takes the big shots, but he also misses small shots, which lead to situations when he has to take big shots, which leads to a bunch of losses because Derrick Rose as stated, hits fewer shots then he misses.

In fact, Derrick Rose hits even less of his 'big shots'. Per 82games.com, Rose is only shooting 39.6% in clutch situations this season. The Bulls are still winning. Is it because Rose is lifting them? No, it's because he's being carried by team MVP, Tom Thibideau and his supporting cast of kick ass defensive players. Both Rose and Marion made their teams a lot better but neither of them 'made' their teams what they were. That is precisely what MVP's do. QED.

But.. But... But he scores all their points!

Ah, yes, so when trying to cope with the logic of the Shawn Marion foil, some fans have responded by rejecting that logic, and then merely repeating that anyone who watched the games would see Rose is their best scorer. Even though it's not addressed, lets make one more comparison.

Who's the MVP of the showtime Lakers? Is it James Worthy? Jamal Wilkes? Byron Scott? Kareem? Maybe Kareem has a case very early in the era, but the MVP is without question Magic Johnson.

Except every single one of those other players above outscored him in various seasons. Magic's natural place in the points column was third on the team. Everyone but Jamal Wilkes led the team in scoring for an entire season. Even Byron Scott. Other players would tend to take the big shots and scored the most points but Magic was still the MVP.

Why? The Lakers won with offence. They were built around Magic. They won and lost with the ebb and flow of his game. He was most valuable to the team for this reason. If your team wins regardless of how good a game you have, you just can't be that valuable because obviously, something or someone on your team is good enough to generate wins on it's/their own.

The Laker's leading scorers were Scott and Big Game James but they were where they were because they had Magic. Scoring all the points and taking the big shots is a faulty reason to make someone the MVP. The Bulls leading scorer and most exciting player is Derrick Rose, but they are where they are because they have a Magic Defence.

But... But... But... Rose Leads The League In Points/Assists/Rebounds Combined! He Has To Be MVP!

I love how each season a new 'stat' floats out of the ether that people use to justify their bias. I've never heard people mention this before. As if a single point is equal to an assist. A solid dime scores 2 or 3 points and a rebound gets an entire possession yet it's the same as making a free throw?

I've even heard the homer Bulls announcers make this claim during broadcasts. The sad part? This is total bullshit. It's a lie. Just like the 'when Rose shoots more, we win more' lie being pushed by the Rose4MVP agenda, it's factually incorrect. Observe:


Lebron: 26.2 + 7.1 + 7.6=40.9
Kevin Love: 20.8+15.8+2.5=39.1
Dwight: 23 + 13.9 + 1.3= 38.2
Durant: 28.2+7.3+2.8=38.3
Amare: 26.4+8.3+2.6=37.3





Who's at the bottom of this league leading list?

Rose: 24.5+8.1+4.3=36.9

It's not even remotely close. I just took a few people I suspected would be higher then him too. There could be more.

Rose has become the best point guard in the league and is out playing his peers

It's not fair to compare Rose's stats to bigs. Things like rebounds and blocks are so much in their favor. Another hype sound byte I've heard is that Rose is now the best point in the game. If he's the MVP he should be out playing other candidates at his position, right? Howard compared to other 5's screams 'best' and 'elite'. So how's he stack up vs the 1's he's supposedly passed. First up, my boy, Steve Nash.

Nash vs Rose.

15 dime games.
16 - 0.

10 dime games
34 - 15

Rose does score a little more obviously:

30 point games
0 - 13

20 point games

18 - 39

But not nearly as efficiently

50% shooting games
32-17

What's happening? Rose is making bad decisions. Setting up his own shots rather then team mates. It's padding his PPG but killing his team's offence. This is why elite points own him on FG% and dimes while his positive offensive impact is over rated. He looks GREATon sports center. The reality is he's missing way more shots then he's taking, not passing enough.

The Best Of The Best For FCP. Nuff Said.

Team is a lot though. Lets compare the help between Nash/Rose here too.

Inside scoring
Carlos Boozer vs Hakim Warrick or Robin Lopez or Jared Dudley or Marcin Gortat. I love Gortat. Big time. But Boozer, who I really don't like much, is just wildly the better inside scorer.

Outside shooting
Channing Frye vs Kyle Korver. Hmm... Frye's best season from the arc is 43% which is the only season, ever, he's shot over 40%. Korver's best season is a full 10% better when he LED HISTORY in 3 point percentage and he's always been one of the elite shooters in the game.

Not to mention in this match up, Rose is about 1000 times faster then Nash. So if Rose is playing at an MVP level, which is above the entire league, and Rose is an offensive player, why is it that Nash's offensive impact destroys his? Nash's team is elite on offense while Rose has better offensive players.

CP3 vs Rose

Chris Paul's team, well, they suck. I'm not sure how to compare. There is nothing elite about David West. Some nice post moves? But he's soft. And he's not 20/10. Okafor is nice defensively for sure. But the Bulls players own the crappy Hornets. Still...

15 dime games.
4 - 0.

10 dime games
29 - 15

Rose does score a little more obviously:

30 point games
0 - 13

20 point games

17 - 39

But not nearly as efficiently

50% shooting games
28-17

Wait a minute, did Nash just own Chris Paul as well? A bit but at least Paul's team stinks so you can't make the same argument against him. It's still intriguing that with about a quarter the athletic ability, Nash is still playing the point at a higher level then all these people who have supposedly passed him.

Lets just do one more head to head to head comparison in case we got confused with who's elite in Rose's peer group.


Nash/CP3/Rose

Games shooting under 40%

8/16/15

Games with less then 10 dimes
17/29/37

And note, I didn't bring up 3 point shooting cuz it's not really fair and to be fair, you can still be a fantastic PG/player/MVP without shooting 3's.

So Why Has Derrick Rose Been Hyped?

There are 4 main reasons.

1. Rose is awesome, and scores lots of points. High PPG in the NBA is sexy and easy for writers to fake like they know what they're talking about.

2. Rose has a plethora of awesome sports centre highlights.

3. The Bulls have a very good record.

4. Most importantly, Rose plays for a large market team. Amare plays in NYC and got hype for the same reason early in the year when they beat a string of hapless teams for a week or two. (thanks to my reader John for pointing this out, I'd forgotten to mention it, along with Rose's obvious east coast bias).

And keep in mind, I really do love watching Rose. Awesome player. I'm totally looking forward to watching him for years to come. But something sucks about Derrick Rose. It's not him but his growing legions of irrational fans who seem to be beating rational ones into submission.

People are trying to make him the MVP instead of letting him earn it. Dwight Howard's rise is not sexy now. We already know he's great and expect it. Lebron's brilliance has won two MVP's and people want to hate him. Everyone knows CP3 already got robbed but he's so 2008. Not that Rose can't still push his team higher and win it fair and square. He can. He just has not separated himself from the pack as of yet though.

He's been on a team that appears to have been saddled by injuries all season who in reality got better then they've ever been when Noah got hurt because Boozer stepped in to replace him.

They've been lucky because about half the time they've faced the best teams they've gotten gimmes instead of the usual ass kicking like when they faced those same teams full strength. Don't get me wrong, Rose has made a sizeable jump in his career this season. It's great to watch. But he's not playing at an MVP level... yet.

King Of The Trade Machine

I Smell BS: How Can A Trade Machine Piccaso Only Get 66 Wins, Must Have Been His Blue, Not Green Period
The Pest is on vacation on beautiful Jeju Island, South Korea, and has not been posting many articles. I was however reading Bill Simmon's latest mailbag and happened upon this Q/A:

Q: Ever messed around with the NBA Trade Machine and tried to determine what trade would give the absolute highest possible increase in John Hollinger's projected wins to a team? Ultimately, I was able to add 58 projected wins to the Knicks by sacking Portland, Cleveland and the Lakers of their valuables. Please don't ask me how long that took. My challenge to you is simple: TOP THAT.
-- Jon, Edison, N.J.

SG: Jon, Jon, Jon, Jon, Jon … you made two ginormous mistakes here. First, you brazenly challenged the Picasso of the Trade Machine. Never a smart move. Second, you challenged someone whose profession allows him to waste copious amounts of time figuring out dumb things to, as you so foolishly put it, "TOP THAT." Your big mistake was not pillaging the Zombie Sonics; for my fake four-team deal, I used the Zombies, Cavaliers and Magic to "TOP THAT" and ended up adding 66 projected wins to the Knicks. Good news, Knicks fans: Not only did I get you LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, Mo Williams, Delonte West, J.J. Hickson, Jordan Hill and Wilson Chandler on next season's team, but you're projected to go 96 and minus-14. Things are looking up! As always, never challenge the Trade Machine Picasso.

A Real Life NBA GM Making A Selection At The 2009 Draft, Not To Be Confused With Donald Sutherland Playing One, Or A Body Snatcher, On TVSomething seems off... 66 wins out of 82 and one Sports Guy talking trash? Lots of teams have won more then 66 games so it must be possible, right? I've heard SG talk about his ESPN Trade Machine prowess on many occasions, so to the trade machine I went to try and "top" Piccasso himself. In about 5-10 minutes came up with this four team/15 player gem between the Knicks, Hornets, Heat and Cavs.








http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ncecza

Here is my entry, Sports Guy, and random SG mailbag participant. A +75 win improvement making the Knicks the greatest team in history. It doesn't even matter that they're weak at center, they can play small with Beasley playing the 5 and dominate the competition as no one would possibly keep up with them.

Want to read the makings of such a master stroke? Okay... don't want to read it? Does not matter.

Step one... imagine that all the GM's in the league have been taken by aliens (Invasion Of The Body Snatchers/Simpsons aliens will do) and replaced with Isiah Thomas, Chris Wallace or a genetic FrankenGM clone of the two of them. Except the Knicks. Since they already employed Isiah they get to employ, ah, anyone. Lets say you reading this.

Then 'you' convince Cleveland to trade Lebron James, J.J. Hickson, Delonte West and Mo Williams for Cutino Mobley, Chris Duhon and Eddy Curry. 26 million. Check.

RRRAAARRRR!!! A Blood Thirsty, Meat Obsessed Member Of The Living Dead, Not To Be Confused With Cuttino Mobley In A Knicks UniformThen get on the horn with the Heat, maybe meet the Isiah Wallace splice-clone over a Scotch or two and let it drop that you think Dwayne Wade and Michael Beasley are about to bust their ACL's in a double career ending collision. Since you are good friends though (and New York will never fire a GM) you'll be happy to help him keep his job by giving him Al Harrington, Jarred Jefferies and Hinton Armstrong (who are about to blow up!!!!) in exchange for those woes. 16.4 million check.

Except those dang CBA agreements won't let this trade work. No worries. Just call up the Hornets and offer to trade Chris Paul straight up for Larry Hughes, you know, since their 13.5 and 13.6 million salaries match. Only if he agrees to send Hinton Armstrong to the Heat while giving you David West to make the whole deal work. Since New Orleans GM is actually a Zombie from Night Of The Living Dead you can win them over by throwing in a hunk of fresh meat and its all good. 13.6 million, check.

At Least You've Still Got A Virtual Crown Sports Guy... And Sexy White Nipple BumpsWhat does this tell us? The New York Knicks have nearly 60 million dollars worth of players on their team who can't play basketball all that well, or in Cutino Mobley's case can't play basketball at all. And that's before we get into Darko Milicic who's 7.5 million is not able to be traded due to CBA rules. The Knicks realistically are probably the worst run franchise in hoop and that's incredible considering that the NBA has a team named "The Clippers" on it.

It also tells us one more thing. The undisputed King Of The Trade Machine presently resides here, at fullcourtpest.com ... unless someone out there can 'top that'. +75 is getting pretty high, but can anyone push it higher? Is a perfect season possible? Take the belt below in the comments.