Friday, November 26, 2010

Talent = Skill + Ability: The Battle Of The Steves (and Tyreke Evans)

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Evans And Francis' Careers Are Mirror Images Thus Far
By: The Pest

Who's more talented... Tyreke Evans or Stephen Curry?

If you go by the evaluation of the NBA in general last year, it's Evans in a landslide which garnered him ROY honors. But is it the case?

It depends on perspective. If you consider 'right now' Evans was able to overwhelm Curry on the basis of his athletic ability, raw stats and highlight plays. If it's career based, and you picture yourself looking back at the year 2010 when they're getting ready for the Hall Of Fame, your perspective changes. Those who ranked on ability are most likely to be laughing at themselves, and those ranking on skill are most likely going to be saying 'told ya so'.

Allow me to demonstrate. The year is 2002, lets look back and compare two points, Steve Francis and Steve Nash.

Francis was electric. He dunked on people's heads. His nickname was "Franchise". He made highlight reels nightly. Nash was probably the 2'nd or 3'rd (and some may say 4th) best player on a pretty good Mavs team that won 57 games. Here are their 02 stats:

Francis: 21.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.4 APG, 1.2 SPG, 42%, 35% from 3, 77% from the line, 3.9 TO, 3.0 PF

Nash: 17.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 7.7 APG, .6 SPG, 48%, 45% from 3, 89% from the line, 2.8 TOs, 2.0 PF

Francis Liked Playing With Yao So Much,
He Decided To End His Career Playing In China
For A Team Called The Ducks
If you were to say that Nash was the better player, was going to have a better career and much more a lock for the HOF, people would have ridiculed you. If you pointed out that Nash had an array of honed skills that were far superior to Francis, that he was more effective while scoring only marginally fewer points and more assists people would say you were just making excuses and that Nash, while good, was just an inferior player, he didn't have the same talent. (It should be noted that Nash's defence was rarely brought up until he was the best player on a truly GOAT level offensive team).

Looking back now though it's difficult to tell what was thicker, the irony or the heads of those laughing. Francis retired at the age of 30 and was not seriously considered an elite player after the age of 27. Almost 10 career year after this Nash is putting up a career in scoring, just came off a career season leading the 4'th best offense of all time (only surpassed by Magic's showtime Lakers, Bird's Celtic's and MJ's Bulls) with no HOF players on his team... well, except him, because he's cemented himself as a first ballot HOF player.

Where was this evident in 2002 though? You can see the difference in their 'skill stats'. Nash only played 34.6 MPG to Francis' 41.1 meaning that /36 his per game totals were even closer/better.

Nash shot much better from the field (6%), 3 (10%) and the line (12%) indicating he had wildly better shot mechanics which was also evident by watching the many bricks Francis put up when he wasn't close to the cup.

As a ball handler/passer Nash also commits far fewer TO's (over 1 less) a game which is highlighted even more by the fact that as a pass first point guard who got more dimes, Nash made many more risky plays a game dishing to his teammates, and when he was not passing most likely had the ball in his hands running a play.

Francis got more steals but this is more then partly due to his willingness to gamble for them and Nash's religious devotion to never gambling. This discipline is reflected in Nash's much foul rate too as he's not trying to make up for plays he's counted himself out of.

The result is obvious. People under rate skills and over rate natural ability. Francis is putting his feet up on the couch to watch 36 year old Nash is putting up career highs... and he has been for 6 years.

Evans Will Have A Blue Career Without A Jumper
Lets look again at the modern day Francis/Nash of Evans/Curry. Notice the parallels? Evans made sports center like crazy last year and was electric as one of the most athletic guards in the league. But Curry has game that will be effective with or without his athleticism. Tangible skills that are going to carry him through a Hall Of Fame. Evans is a low skill one dimensional player who gets 73% of his field goals directly at the rim, not to mention is only effective scoring with one hand. (note the graphic on the side).

Curry is a high skilled multi-talented player who finishes at the rim with nearly identical effectiveness yet only relies on it for 28% of his field goals. The other 72% come from all over the court including 3 pointers which I don't have to tell you, count for more.

I'll Let Curry's 'Rookie' Shot Chart Have The Last Word
Who's more talented? If you're a student of the game and think about players in terms of careers instead of sports center highlights, I think it's almost obvious Curry wins. Evans might be able to make it on ability for now but it won't last if he doesn't learn how to play more like Curry. Evans can get there, but without remarkably improving his game he will be 'disenFranchised' out of the league in 10 years because he frankly lacks talent. Talent he needs to be a truly great player.

Curry does not need to change his game in the slightest. He's already there. It's so common to misconstrue that athleticism supersedes skill in the talent equation but it's quite the opposite. Curry stands to be a better player at 33 then he is now. Improving at a normal gradual pace his talent will be swishing 3's right into the Hall Of Fame.


But you could see that even before Curry played a minute in the NBA. Observe.



Tuesday, November 23, 2010

The Semi-Complete List Of Shaq Getting Dunked On

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Shaqtus Made A Living Doing This
By: The Pest

Lets be honest about Shaquille O'Neal for a moment. He is easily one of the most dominant, powerful and ridiculous forces the NBA, or any sport, has ever seen. I personally think Dream is the superior center, but Shaq is not a poor choice if you're talking about his pure and absolute peak.

Speaking to hard core Shaq fans though will oft yield this argument for Shaq as a defender.
Have you ever seen shaq get dunked on or someone take him one on one and punish him like he did to everyone else? Shaq has never been dunked on.
Maybe not often, but I've heard it enough times from enough people to write an article about it. I think it's crazy. It's the NBA. Everyone dunks. Everyone gets dunked on. Even Shaq. So sure to generate mass unpopularity, here is the complete list of you tube dunks over Diesel. Admittedly, Shaq didn't get dunked on much, and since he played nearly his entire career before You Tube, even fewer exist in that medium.
Now, for this no one dunks on Shaq claim. I don't know where his fans get this. Here's a short collection, and these are only the ones that make it to you tube. PS: If anyone has more clips please send them along and we will gladly include them with credit.
Bynum dunks on Shaq's pride: 

Funderburke/Robinson:

 
Derrick Coleman Just Posterizes Him:


 
Rueben Patterson Does The Same: 

 
Elton Brand:


 
Zo:


 
Arvydas Sabonis:


 
Howard dunks on Shaq's floppy pride ("Like an elephant gun took him down"):
 

 
Jason Terry:

    
Jordan:


 
Webber:
 
 Vlade Divac: Now after that sweet pass you might say "yea, Divac was afraid of Shaq", But no, watch THIS clip, when Divac retaliates after a blatant non-call when Shaq was getting bailed out by officials (edit: My mistake here, Vlade just goes by Shaq on the dunk over Walker. Got them mixed up cuz of the title of the vid and Walker's 52 being similar to Shaq's 32 from the rest of his career. But he was 34 in LA of course. But I'll leave this dunk in just for it's pure sweetness. :) )


 
You know, after watching that Divac dunk, I really don't think Shaq's fans can ever say no one has ever dunked on him again. Vlade, sometimes the poster boy for soft centers, took it right at him and stuffed it down his throat. That dunk is ridiculous! (edit: still ridiculous, but it's downgraded from a facial stuff on Shaq to just a 'weak dunk on Shaq')
In conclusion, I really don't mean to be down on Shaq. He's obviously one of the most dominant players in history. But statements like "Shaq has never been dunekd on" make him sound like he's just beyond reproach. Remember that Shaq has never led the league in blocked shots or rebounding, Hakeem handed him his ass in the finals, and that yes, Shaq has been dunked on.

Friday, November 19, 2010

The Meaning Of Value: Russell Westbrook Vs. Kevin Durant

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Durant Scores More On Average, But There Is
Nothing Average About Russell Westbrook
By: Jeremy Graham

Can you be the league MVP if you are not even the MVP of your own team? That's the question facing Kevin Durant, the chic pick at the beginning of the year to bringing home the hardware. Kobe's getting older, Lebron's taking his talents to South Beach, and Chris Paul's on a “lottery team.” It's KD team, and his time to win 10 straight MVPs.

With the playoff run and the international grind Durant is starting slow. I still don’t know if he would be the most valuable player to the Sonics, yes I am calling them the Sonics. (ED: FCP says "Damn Straight!" :) ) Right now, and maybe in the foreseeable future, Russell Westbrook is unquestionably the best, and most important player on his team.

This Play Defines The Sonics Success Against LA Last Year, Not Durant's

Double take expected; I almost can’t even believe what I am writing. How can I say that a combo guard who wasn’t supposed to even be a PG can be better than Kevin Durant? Simple! In the time they have played together Westbrook has progressed much more than Durant. Westbrook was never intended to be the full time point guard yet he wanted it so bad he told the franchise "I'm your guy" and took the bull by the horns. Westbrook has progressed so far that he is now arguably a top 5 PG in the league.

I know, top 5 is alright but you have to be top 3 to be elite. After Chris Paul and Deron Williams you can play musical chairs with Nash, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook so today's "arguably top 5" is really yesterday's elite. Durant may be a top two or three player at SF, depending on how you rate Carmelo, but SF does not have the depth of the PG position in the NBA. There are four different categories to rate players on, scoring, rebounding, passing and defense. Right now I think that Westbrook is outshining Durant in all four.


Scoring

We Feel You Seattle
This is like the Kobe vs Lebron debate for who is a better scorer. Talent or Production, what to choose? Durant is, of course, the more talented scorer from anywhere on the court. He resembles Vince Carter with the way he can stroke the 35 foot three when he wants to. Westbrook is a little more modest and is relegated to inside 20 feet. Despite this Durant€ is less efficient. He scores more than Westbrook, which looks great, till you dig a little deeper.

Durant is currently shooting 42% from the field and only 31% from the the arc. For a recently appointed “best offensive player in the game,” those numbers are lacking. Westbrook isn’t lighting it up either, shooting only 3% better at 45% but when you shoot as much as both players do it adds up. By getting his buckets closer to the basket Westbrook takes higher percentage shots for better efficiency. Some say Durant gets to the line and shoots so well the easy points compensate his poor shooting nights. Good point, except Westbrook is getting to the line just a touch less and is shooting just a tad lower. For now Westbrook is the best scorer on the Sonics. Will this last all year? Perhaps not, but it's the case so far in 2010 and could continue.


Rebounding

Even Blake Griffin Can't
Keep A Good Dunk Down
It also looks like Durant is the better rebounder on the surface. He does average more per game. But he plays a position where rebounding is part of the job, whereas at PG rebounds are a bonus. Westbrook doesn’t think along those lines. He is one of the best rebounding guards in the league.

Not just from the point but of all guards. Durant pulls down 6.6 RPG and Westbrook pulls down 5.5 out of a non-rebounding position. You have to look at the offensive glass as well. Westbrook averages almost 2 offensive rebounds a game, Durant doesn’t even average 1. Durant is phenomenal, but that reeks of low effort. A PG should not be cleaning the offensive glass better than your SF. It's not how basketball works. Is it a paradigm shift in the league towards a new uber athletic PG? Perhaps... Some day Durant is going to be pulling down 10 rebounds a game, he may even hit the offensive glass. Right now though, Westbrook has him beat by a country mile.
Passing

It's Okay Ramon Sessions,
No One Else Saw It Coming Either
It goes without saying that a team's PG the better passer when compared to a SF. For the sake of this I will focus ball control. For a jump shooter that puts the ball on the floor intermittently Durant frankly turns the ball over far too often. His TOs are as high as Westbrook without running the offense. Westbrook performs the main ball handling duties putting him in position to turn it over much more often.

Advanced stats appear to disprove this. Durant does have a higher usage rate and a lower turnover percentage. Does that mean that he holds onto the ball better? Nope, it sure doesn’t. Durant has a higher usage rate because he puts up more shots, not because he has the ball in his hands more. More shots should equal fewer turnovers. Next you might say, “Well Durant plays more minutes, of course his turnovers are higher.” Good point! Until you see they both average 3.5 TO per 36 minutes. In time Durant will protect the ball and drop more dimes. Presently, Westbrook is his superior.

Defence

PG's Get Higher Then Their
Centers For Blocks Now???
It does win championships as they say. Durant has turned himself into a very decent defender after a mostly lost rookie year. Westbrook has been a very good from day one.  I am not saying Westbrook is better because of history, I am saying he is better... because he is.

Durant's length/smarts put him in position to steal the ball 1.5 times, and block about a shot, per game. Not only that but he plays solid man and team D at a more important defensive position. Westbrook may play a less important defensive role than Durant but he plays his role better. With the influx of excellent to elite PGs it's becoming more important to have a good defender at the point.

Just ask the Heat. Westbrook is able to defend elite guards without much help and gets at least 2 take aways per game and tips many passes that don't make box scores. Durant may have a slight advantage in blocks, but steals nearly always result in a change of possession. Defense is hard to judge, especially statistically and when comparing different positions, but you have to give the edge to Westbrook. All without mentioning that Westbrook can guard both guard positions very well.

Come MVP voting Durant may very well pull ahead of Westbrook and be the best player for the Sonics. His numbers very well could sky rocket. He has all the talent to do so. A few questions should still arise at that time. Will Westbrook have the better numbers? Will it matter if he does, or will Durant win the MVP because he was supposed to be? And can you be the MVP if someone on your own team is outperforming you?